General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Xenius]

I feel like the bigwigs get stolen from each other all the time. Not sure if there's anything to be read from these tea leaves.

 

[aubreymcfato]

Sparse notes:
* it seems that solar panels on GF1 are from GF2 (Panasonic made) Five more sets of solar panels in a little more than 2 weeks. Not bad, I must say. • r/teslamotors
* reading this tweet I wondered: what if Tesla was to make also electric bikes? Franz could "easily" design a new bike, batteries are there and they could sell in the *millions*. Also, fit with new Boring Company plans. Too speculative? It would be a huge thing from a PR point of view, bikes have so many positive externalities.

 

[Reciprocity]

I feel like the bigwigs get stolen from each other all the time. Not sure if there's anything to be read from these tea leaves.

Oh my, where is Tesla going to get someone who knows accounting and finance. The cfo that came back was better then the cfo that left. Here is how these things go. Exec a comes to Elon and says, hey i want to stay but I need more money and Elon says nah, we good. My guess is that others have had opportunities that where but some solar accounting out finance person that did not leave. You only know about those who leave and people always leave fast growing companies because other companies want to grow fast as well. And people want to grow their own companies fast. I'll worry when one leaves because they say Elon is coming the books. Until then, nothing to see here.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Panasonic starts producing battery cells for electric cars at new factory in China

The company says that the capacity of the plant is “around 200,000 electric vehicles”, but it’s not clear what the overall production is in term of energy capacity since they plan to supply “hybrid, plug-in hybrid, and all-electric vehicles” and you can make 10 hybrid car batteries with 1 all-electric car battery pack.

I would wagly estimate its capacity at less than 10 GWh.

 

[Reciprocity]

Sparse notes:
* it seems that solar panels on GF1 are from GF2 (Panasonic made) Five more sets of solar panels in a little more than 2 weeks. Not bad, I must say. • r/teslamotors
* reading this tweet I wondered: what if Tesla was to make also electric bikes? Franz could "easily" design a new bike, batteries are there and they could sell in the *millions*. Also, fit with new Boring Company plans. Too speculative? It would be a huge thing from a PR point of view, bikes have so many positive externalities.

Tesla is not trying to solve all transportation, they are leading by example and others are already making bikes. No one was going to make a legit semi, now they have to. No one was going to make beautiful EV cars, now they have to. Companies are already making great busses, so Tesla probably won't do that, tough they will make something that works with the tunnels. Tesla cannot do it all, they can barely do what they are trying to do now and growing at a crazy rate as it is. The plan had always been to force other manufactures hands by showing them up in their most profitable markets. This is a force multiplier that causes 20+ boardrooms of multi billion dollar companies to re think their plans. Electric bikes won't do that. Wait until you see what happens when the pickup comes out.

 

[Reciprocity]

Panasonic starts producing battery cells for electric cars at new factory in China

The company says that the capacity of the plant is “around 200,000 electric vehicles”, but it’s not clear what the overall production is in term of energy capacity since they plan to supply “hybrid, plug-in hybrid, and all-electric vehicles” and you can make 10 hybrid car batteries with 1 all-electric car battery pack.

I would wagly estimate its capacity at less than 10 GWh.

There is nothing negative about this. It's what Tesla wants. Tesla will source cells from others as well when it makes sense. They could also partner with others for future gigafactories.

 

[mongo]

As for German engineering, when Tesla spent months trying to fix fixing the battery production in Nevada, they couldn't do it here. They had to get they took advantage of their German subsidiary to figure it out and make it work version 2.

FTFY,
Supporting data:


Q2 17 letter:

On July 28, 2017, we started delivering the “even more affordable car” from our original Master Plan.

Q3 17 letter:

To date, our primary production constraint has been in the battery module assembly line at Gigafactory 1, where cells are packaged into modules.

Conference call:

The zones 3 and 4 are in good shape; zones 1 and 2 are not. Zone 2 in particular, this is -- we had a subcontractor -- a systems integration subcontractor that unfortunately really dropped the ball, and we did not realize the degree to which the ball was dropped until quite recently, and we had to -- this is a very complex manufacturing area. We had to rewrite all of the software from scratch and redo many of the mechanical and electrical elements of zone 2 of module production. We've managed to rewrite what was about 20 to 30 man years of software in 4 weeks, but there's still a long way to go. It's -- because the software work can be fast with the electromechanical elements that need to be fabricated and installed, and that -- getting these items in place and rebuilt is, unfortunately, a lot longer, and that's -- it's probably more external constraints than software. This is what I spent many a late night on the Gigafactory working on. J.B. has been here constantly, and we've -- we allocated many of our best engineers to fundamentally fixing zone 2 of the module line and then most problem behind that it is zone 1.

Q4 2017 call:

And of the four zones, two of them, of which are subcontracted to – the production systems are subcontracted to other companies, flat out didn't work, it turns out like, I mean, we promised they would work and it just didn't work. So, we had to do what would normally be maybe an 18-month development cycle for a production system of that scale and complexity, and try to do that in basically six months or maybe little, six to nine months.

And we've tackled that on multiple levels, so we have a design that is nearing completion for a new automated system for Zone 1 and 2 that is being led by our Tesla Grohmann team. It's an excellent design. All the other work that they've done has performed to spec, and we expect a single Tesla Grohmann line to be equivalent to three, if not four, of the current lines that we have and be smaller, which is kind of amazing.

And then we have what we call a semi-automatic line, which is a series of small automated stations manned by people and they've actually been remarkably effective. It has to some degree renewed my faith in humanity that the rapid evolution of progress and the ability of people to adapt rapidly is quite remarkable.

Our semi-automatic – our sort of semi-manual, semi-automatic line is exceeding all three of the automatic lines right now. So – and that is something that we're able to scale quite rapidly.

Yes. We expect the new automated lines to arrive next month in March, and then it's already – it's been – it's working in Germany. So, that's got to be disassembled, brought over to the Gigafactory, and re-assembled and then brought into operation at the Gigafactory. It's not a question of whether it works or not. It's just a question of disassembly, transport, and reassembly.

So let's summarize, in 6-7 months Tesla:

• Started building 3s (July)
  
• Found out the pack line was fundamentally broken
• Reprogrammed the broken line to work (Sept/Oct)
  
• Created a semi automated line that was faster than the patched line and started using it at GF1
  
• Developed a new fully operational automated line which will be installed in March (Jan)

 

[aubreymcfato]

Tesla is not trying to solve all transportation, they are leading by example and others are already making bikes. No one was going to make a legit semi, now they have to. No one was going to make beautiful EV cars, now they have to. Companies are already making great busses, so Tesla probably won't do that, tough they will make something that works with the tunnels. Tesla cannot do it all, they can barely do what they are trying to do now and growing at a crazy rate as it is. The plan had always been to force other manufactures hands by showing them up in their most profitable markets. This is a force multiplier that causes 20+ boardrooms of multi billion dollar companies to re think their plans. Electric bikes won't do that. Wait until you see what happens when the pickup comes out.

I understand your rationale, and I agree.
But I would also argue that electric bikes do not have incumbents and maybe it's a good source of profits: they would be able to make a great bike with great margins (the Tesla brand is hype enough).
I'm not holding my breath, but I would be glad to see a Tesla e-bike, maybe it's more strategic that it seems at the moment.

 

[Reciprocity]

I understand your rationale, and I agree.
But I would also argue that electric bikes do not have incumbents and maybe it's a good source of profits: they would be able to make a great bike with great margins (the Tesla brand is hype enough).
I'm not holding my breath, but I would be glad to see a Tesla e-bike, maybe it's more strategic that it seems at the moment.

How but just use the renewable resource called muscles powered by tofu and kale and ride to bike to the tunnel elevator. Problem solved. And much healthier.

 

[scaesare]

If you include battery powered ships that can be charged with renewable (solar) power. Those are happening.
A new all-electric cargo ship with a massive 2.4 MWh battery pack launches in China

Interesting. That's only like 3 Tesla semi battery packs.

Of course, it only has 1/10th the range... but still...it's a cargo ship...

 

[montefuego]

FTFY,
Supporting data:


Q2 17 letter:

Q3 17 letter:
Conference call:

Q4 2017 call:



So let's summarize, in 6-7 months Tesla:

• Started building 3s (July)
  
• Found out the pack line was fundamentally broken
• Reprogrammed the broken line to work (Sept/Oct)
  
• Created a semi automated line that was faster than the patched line and started using it at GF1
  
• Developed a new fully operational automated line which will be installed in March (Jan)

I read all those reports, as well, when they came out. The 'new, fully operational automated line' was built in Germany. All the work done at the Gigafactory never achieved its goals, which is 'an automated line so fast you need a strobe light to see it.' They could not get sufficient precision in tolerance to keep the 'bandoliers' from being ground up by their assembly robots. Their German partners have apparently done that.

 

[justvisiting]

Oh my, where is Tesla going to get someone who knows accounting and finance. The cfo that came back was better then the cfo that left. Here is how these things go. Exec a comes to Elon and says, hey i want to stay but I need more money and Elon says nah, we good. My guess is that others have had opportunities that where but some solar accounting out finance person that did not leave. You only know about those who leave and people always leave fast growing companies because other companies want to grow fast as well. And people want to grow their own companies fast. I'll worry when one leaves because they say Elon is coming the books. Until then, nothing to see here.

how do you explain that tesla was not able to name a successor to eric branderiz in their 8k? or that branderiz did not have another job lined up? that pretty much tells you that he was a) fired or b) unwilling to work even one more day at Tesla
in both cases, thats a bad sign

 

[mongo]

I read all those reports, as well, when they came out. The 'new, fully operational automated line' was built in Germany. All the work done at the Gigafactory never achieved its goals, which is 'an automated line so fast you need a strobe light to see it.' They could not get sufficient precision in tolerance to keep the 'bandoliers' from being ground up by their assembly robots. Their German partners have apparently done that.

I think you are conflating Tesla's original manufacturer equipment supplier with Tesla itself.
The original line was not designed/built at the Gigafactory based on any report I've seen. Would like to see any data to the contrary.

 

[Reciprocity]

how do you explain that tesla was not able to name a successor to eric branderiz in their 8k? or that branderiz did not have another job lined up? that pretty much tells you that he was a) fired or b) unwilling to work even one more day at Tesla
in both cases, thats a bad sign

Not every story is the same and I was not specifically alluding to this individual.. Sorry.. Eric's successor hasn't been named because they didnt need him. He specialized is some kind of solar accounting and they made a position for him including title and everything. At least that is my guess. Again, accountants are a dime a dozen.

 

[scaesare]

Tesla Semi electric truck spotted all the way in St-Louis at a Supercharger station

The semi shoulda grabbed a tow strap and yanked that little red ICE out of the adjacent charging stall first...

 

[gene]

The semi shoulda grabbed a tow strap and yanked that little red ICE out of the adjacent charging stall first...

While not a Tesla, that little red car is one of the EV pioneers. It is a Think Car. I test drove one 20 years ago when these were available in the USA. I think it belongs to the fellow that took the picture.

 

[Mkorpal]

I understand your rationale, and I agree.
But I would also argue that electric bikes do not have incumbents and maybe it's a good source of profits: they would be able to make a great bike with great margins (the Tesla brand is hype enough).
I'm not holding my breath, but I would be glad to see a Tesla e-bike, maybe it's more strategic that it seems at the moment.

!st, are you referring to an electric bicycle, or are you referring to an electric motorcycle/moped?

Either way, I would doubt, if they do ever do it, that they would use the Tesla branding. That should be reserved for the luxury vehicles.

 

[scaesare]

While not a Tesla, that little red car is one of the EV pioneers. It is a Think Car. I test drove one 20 years ago when these were available in the USA. I think it belongs to the fellow that took the picture.

Thanks for the correction on it not being an ICE. Still ain't gonna be using that Tesla charger...

(note my post was tongue-in-cheek)

 

[DurandalAI]

how do you explain that tesla was not able to name a successor to eric branderiz in their 8k? or that branderiz did not have another job lined up? that pretty much tells you that he was a) fired or b) unwilling to work even one more day at Tesla
in both cases, thats a bad sign

How often DO they mention where someone is leaving is going to? It’s rare for that to be mentioned in any official statement anywhere. I’m trying to think back when the destination is ever mentioned when an employee is leaving except for retirement, not only in company statements but at any company I’ve ever worked for. Prove to me the celestial teapot doesn’t exist.

Tesla receives much more scrutiny than incumbent players, but the great thing about Tesla is because they’re such an innovative company, even if they do (not saying that they do) eat through employees faster than most companies, there are a lot of very bright motivated individuals who want to work there. I value my free time greatly, but I certainly wouldn’t mind a 5 year stint there, burning the midnight oil to be a part of something great. Not only that, but after being there for 5 years, I could probably retire from the stock options! (Assuming normal employees get some as part of their compensation package.)

I think it’s time to go back to bed. I just found out we lost Steven Hawking.

 

[montefuego]

I think you are conflating Tesla's original manufacturer equipment supplier with Tesla itself.
The original line was not designed/built at the Gigafactory based on any report I've seen. Would like to see any data to the contrary.

The company that was responsible for the Bandoliers was building them in the Gigafactory. Tesla, JB, etc, tried to fix it for them, and couldn't . Despite all the software improvements at the Gigafactory, all the hours put in, in the end the Germans had to do it.