sundaymorning
Active Member
I agree with JRP’s assessment much more. At the rate that Tesla is delivering, especially during end of Q rush, I would assume they’re running low on options.
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I agree with JRP’s assessment much more. At the rate that Tesla is delivering, especially during end of Q rush, I would assume they’re running low on options.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
That is what happens when you have neither your own trucks with your own drivers or a contract with an established reputable trucking company handling your shipping.
You are left scrabbling.
Does Mercedes hire Gheorghe at the last minute to ship S Class cars to Stockholm ?
Waiting4M3
Active Member
My suspicion is that since the VIN# are in batches that correspond to color/wheel options, and we have seen VINs of particular color/wheel options coming out in a bunch on a same day, so the VIN# themselves may not be truly randomized vs time in order to get a good fit.
OTOH, note the spike of 36 VINs registered on 3/7, it may skew the average of VIN # registered per day in 1st 1/2 of March, erring on the high side.
I appreciate @schonelucht doing this analysis. I think 1k/wk could be a good estimate for 1st 1/2 of March. If I want to be conservative I would estimate 1st 3.5 weeks of March at 1k/wk, and last week at 1.5-2k/wk, so March production of 5-5.5k, add to Jan-Feb of 4k production, gives us ~9-9.5k production for Q1. It's a little below what I'm hoping, but it fits the trend line we see in Troy's sheet, currently intersecting 3/31/2018 at ~11,000 VIN, maybe a little above, and rising slowly as each day goes by.
The big unknown is the last week of March. Based on my reply to Mike Smith and schonelucht above regarding the VIN trend since March 19, 2k/wk could have happened since around then, but just not enough data to tell for certain.
Mike Smith
Active Member
Today's data further supports a 2k/wk+ run rate. All data points are above Troy's trend line.
McMuggets
Member
ValueAnalyst
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Jonathan Hewitt
Active Member
Because that would be similar to shorts saying Tesla's cash spend is going to drive them to bankruptcy within the next year. Just because data can be interpreted in a certain way doesn't mean it's realistic or right.
dc_h
Active Member
ValueAnalyst
Closed
Because that would be similar to shorts saying Tesla's cash spend is going to drive them to bankruptcy within the next year. Just because data can be interpreted in a certain way doesn't mean it's realistic or right.
“Clearly not realistic” suggests there’s a data point that disproves it. If Grohmann lines are in and ramping quicker and more smoothly than expectations, in-line with @avoigt ‘s post on the subject, and combined with the manuautomated line possibly at 1,500/wk to 2,000/wk, 5,000/wk soon is not out of the realm of possibility. I’m not saying it’s likely, but it’s not “clearly not realistic” either.
Mike Smith
Active Member
Elon said they require not only the new Grohmann line, but also the new parts delivery system which is being installed during Q2 at Freemont in order to reach 5k/wk.
Jonathan Hewitt
Active Member
That datapoint is Elon predicting 5K/week not occurring until June, which is 3 months from now, maybe 6.
On a serious note, that dataset is such a small time frame and the data points are so spread out that the only real conclusion I think you can come up with is "higher than before." If you calculate the R squared value it would show this I bet.
These linear regression models are certainly a good start. But it is worth remembering that 'step detection' of time series data is practically its own subdivision of statistical analysis and research. I have a feeling that some hardcore statisticians (not I) might be mildly amused at our modeling efforts.
Reciprocity
Active Member
I don't recall anything being said about a new parts delivery system being installed in Q2. Can you post a link? What I specifically recall is Elon stating on the last conference call that they had 2 known bottlenecks. Pack assembly which we all have went back and forth about 1000 times. And the conveyance system you reference. I do not recall anything specific being said about this system and surely nothing about it being installed next quarter. Any info you could provide would be helpful.
Mike Smith
Active Member
From the Q4 earnings call transcript:
'The next constraint would be material conveyance at our Fremont vehicle plant, so there's a very sophisticated automated parts conveyance system. We think it's probably the most sophisticated in the world, or at least we're not aware of one that is more so, and the software for that is quite complex. So that would be the next constraint on production to get to 5,000 is the conveyance system in Fremont. So that also appears to be on track. So, we feel like the error bars around the unit volume predictions are getting smaller with each passing week.'
If he's saying it's a constraint to getting to 5000, which isn't expected until the end of Q2, and it's 'on track', he's saying it won't be ready until the end of Q2.
Waiting4M3
Active Member
R^2 is 0.25 for linear fit using VINs from 3/7-24, and 0.26 for VINs from 3/19-24, both are very inconclusive. I would remain cautiously optimistic that 2k/wk looks possible but for sure I wouldn't make short term bet based on that.That datapoint is Elon predicting 5K/week not occurring until June, which is 3 months from now, maybe 6.
On a serious note, that dataset is such a small time frame and the data points are so spread out that the only real conclusion I think you can come up with is "higher than before." If you calculate the R squared value it would show this I bet.
Waiting4M3
Active Member
It's a strong personal feeling of mine that Tesla won't be doing 5k/wk this coming week based on everything that I've heard. Please don't parse my comments like it's coming from Elon. I don't feel like discussing 5k/wk at end of March is useful, it's rather argumentative and annoying. Please stop.
One reason could be that Troy also started to post about the spreadsheet on Reddit and not just here. Increased exposure meant more submissions? Yet another could be that there are more VIN gaps in de first series.
ValueAnalyst
Closed
If you’re annoyed by arguing to find the truth, this is not the place for you. You should be seeking people to argue against you so that you can straighten thoughts and thanking them, instead of telling them to stop.
Nobody is “assuming” Tesla exceeded guidance; in fact, I specifically and explicitly stated that it was not likely, but it was also not an impossibility, as the OP had implied.
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It does seem incredibly unlikely that Tesla could basically go 4x production speed in a fortnight. Even if the new battery module line was miraculously completed ahead of Elon's ever tight deadlines, and the additional production could be shipped to Fremont in time, and every single other part has an additional couple of weeks inventory lying around, and it could somehow be correctly put in place without the conveyance system up and running then the staff would still have to be able to do 4x the workload on the back end (QC, administration, vehicle storage, etc), which seems rather unlikely.
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