General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Reciprocity]

Q3,Q4 2017 were hugely inflated because Norwegians were rushing to buy EVs when they thought they were about to lose a tax break. Most of those extra sales were pulled forward from this quarter, so it's really amazing that we're up this quarter vs last year.

I agree and based on Q4 2018 demand being pulled forward as you stated, which is clear. This should have resulted in Q1 2018 being terrible, yet it is up double digits as a percent YoY. A dishonest analyst would say that deliveries where down massively from the previous quarter. And an honest analyst would say that demand was pulled forward by the possibility of tax credits expiring, but the same quarter year over year over year shows steady and strong growth even with so much demand, almost a full quarters worth, being pulled into the prior quarter.

 

[HG Wells]

TODAY we go up !

Todays close up 12 or ?

 

[DragonWatch]

Q3,Q4 2017 were hugely inflated because Norwegians were rushing to buy EVs when they thought they were about to lose a tax break. Most of those extra sales were pulled forward from this quarter, so it's really amazing that we're up this quarter vs last year.

I am concerned, a little, you are going to see the same issue here state side. First, it took until early March before the IRS released paperwork so Turbo Tax could program the webpage in order for me to submit my taxes and collect the tax incentive. The paperwork did not change from 2016 to 2017 ~ the tax incentive avoided the ax and it was for 2017 so there was a social contract to pay the incentive. This was not just a Turbo Tax issue. I found on the Chevy Bolt site similar issues with other tax software.

Second I have either read here or somewhere along the way that numbers stateside for the S & X are increasing for the very same reason you mentioned in your comment. The rush is on to capture the incentive.

I will not lie, a ~ I cut down the cherry tree, and b ~ the tax incentive did play a $7,500 role in pulling the trigger to buy our X (Xena) last year. Okay, it was a peach tree. Peach trees are still having trouble here in the northwest on the wetter side of Washington. Oh, and it was my wife’s order, the tree was not producing fruit. Guess I better get to work and produce or she will cut me down for not producing:-( Saturday Xena turns one year old We replaced the peach with four cherry trees

 

[Buddyroe]

With all due respect, you were making very, very, similar comments during the Model X ramp, and that turned out fine in the long run. Model 3 will be the same...

Was there anything in my post that was not factual or not 100% true?

There's simply no reason to discuss the X. Based on my conversation with the Tesla Ranger that came to my house last week, the X is still a major problem. But, simply put, we aren't going to agree on the X, so no point in discussing it.

 

[DragonWatch]

FYI, for me it is showing 964. The numbers seem to vary even when viewed at the same time.

On my new iPad, replaced my old iPad that was stolen in Stockton, CA from Xena on our road trip to visit her roots/the factory in Fremont, shows 1026

 

[replicant]

Bloomberg is doing the same thing. Won't talk about reduced fires and reduced accident rate with Autopilot. They provide some sort of link to the blog post but it requires you be a subscriber to 'Professional Service', so basically nobody can see it.

see my post from yesterday for a possible explanation for this media game: General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

 

[vigleik]

FYI, for me it is showing 964. The numbers seem to vary even when viewed at the same time.

On my new iPad, replaced my old iPad that was stolen in Stockton, CA from Xena on our road trip to visit her roots/the factory in Fremont, shows 1026

If you change the time zone on your computer you will get a different number.

 

[Drax7]

Confirmation from a NYT article citing official China News sources:

Kim Jong-un Met With Xi Jinping in Secret Beijing Visit

Operative:

"Mr. Kim told the Chinese leader that he was open to dialogue with the United States, including a potential summit meeting with President Trump, and was committed to the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, according to an account published by China’s news agency Xinhua."

The rest is mostly background. My hope continues to be that Kim and Moon are set to conclude a peace treaty, with stipulations spelled out consistent with the above. Moon seems to be determined to achieve reconciliation and Kim has a lot to gain. I hate to say this, but if peace and stability is the denouement, Trump's bad guy approach is vindicated, even the surprise appointment of Bolton may have been part of the scenario. More on a more appropriate thread later.

It’s called restoring deterrence, can’t let weaker powers miscalculate into thinking they can
Win a war against the USA. Same method to be applied in restoring free trade, reciprocal
Tariffs will get the ball rolling.

 

[N5329K]

Like this?
Robin

 

[DragonWatch]

Was there anything in my post that was not factual or not 100% true?

There's simply no reason to discuss the X. Based on my conversation with the Tesla Ranger that came to my house last week, the X is still a major problem. But, simply put, we aren't going to agree on the X, so no point in discussing it.

You are right in your view and questioning Like you I have been around awhile and on the lighter side it is the same-O-thing. People are scared, even I am scared on occasion even though I assume everything will work out in the end.

The fundamentals are still outstanding. FedEx just piled on with a truck order, and production numbers are improving on the M3. I like the quote; “by a mile, life’s a trial; by a yard, life’s hard; by an inch, life’s a cinch.”

I of all people cringe when a person dies in a car accident, and rightly so having lost our son that way, but until the facts and data are in, we can only sit and wait. Remember Joshua’s parents came forth with a very, very brave statement not blaming Tesla for the loss of their son.

I am here with my glass half full, problem is the desert is hot and climate change is heating up Our rescued dog from the desert, on the side of the freeway, pooing sticks and stones, at just under three months old, loves our perspective. She snores too, makes me wonder how she survived without making a coyote breakfast

 

[Todd Burch]

We should all know by now that the Bloomberg estimate is useless. It lags the crowdsourced data we have here on this forum by a significant amount.

 

[DurandalAI]

I’ve still got another 25 years or so before I hit retirement age, so I can stand to take some risks. So from now on I’m going to triple the amount I put into TSLA every month. The company and the leader have the best of goals, and the best way I can vote is with my money.

 

[elasalle]

Any possibility that someone knows about more delays and say like Grohmnann m/c did not even leave Germany or not yet installed?

 

[Iceman]

TODAY we go up !

Todays close up 12 or ?

Down $10 pre-market already.

Jeremias what the

 

[Reciprocity]

Any possibility that someone knows about more delays and say like Grohmnann m/c did not even leave Germany or not yet installed?

They do not need the Grohmann machine to get to 2500/w per the 8K. Certainly, a machine that is needed to build the packs not working would be bad, but its clear about the investigations, downgrades combined with all of Tech going down sharply. Good GDP numbers made all the markets go down as soon as they came out. They had been recovering all morning. Good news = bad news because everyone is afraid of interest rates going up.. this is probably hurting TSLA even more because everyone thinks they need money. What they dont understand is that Tesla is only a few months way from being a cash generating machine. They can also cocoon up and show profitability if they wanted to, but they have been so focused on growth, which is the right thing to do at this point. They have one shot to grab gobs of market share before the competition can react.

To be clear, everything is down. Look at Amazon.

 

[SFLDMD]

First of all I just want to say that I am not that well versed on Investment terms or strategy but I do hold a fair amount of TSLA shares and have watched this thread closely. My question is, although the stock has taken a beating recently, I look at other stocks such as AMZN which is down 50 points premarket and NVDA which has had a terrible few days. I feel like it would be one thing if most of these stocks were in the green besides TSLA, but the whole market in general has had a bad run the past week or so. If it was just TSLA I would worry a lot more, but since most other companies have had a bad run recently, is that a reason not to full on panic?

BTW, im holding on to TSLA because I believe future is bright, just a bump in the road.

 

[SteveG3]

fwiw, I've only deemed two individual stocks since 1999 worth my investment dollars (the first was Celgene).

on the way to being a 70 bagger for me, Celgene had a drop that would be the equivalent of Tesla dropping from its $380s all-time high to $75. The press at the time was not so encouraging.

With the help of a group similar to the one here at TMC, which also did outstanding crowd-sourcing and analysis of information, I did not sell a single core share.

stock price movement does not tell you facts. careful first-hand analysis of the facts can offer you a very strong indication of a stock's underlying value.

I did do a deeper dive last night into the nature of the NTSB field investigation (see post from last night in this thread), and Tesla's cash position and upcoming debt coming due. Both of these refreshed looks last night left me considerably more confident that underneath all the noise being pumped out, the real circumstances remain very bullish for Tesla's prospects.

 

[MattEnth]

I'm still short.

Tesla senior corporate bonds trading 86-87 cents on the dollar.

If you believe that Tesla is going to be able to pay back its debts, you've got an incredible buying opportunity for Tesla bonds...

But I doubt ValueAnalyst will suggest that, though.

 

[JRP3]

I'm still short.

I'm still long.

Bought more at $262.

 

[aubreymcfato]

Liam Denning of Bloomberg continues to hammer on bonds:
A Terrible Tuesday for Tesla's Stock, But Watch the Bonds