General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[doctoxics]

Looks like Tesla has put the battery pack production problem behind them. Currently ramping from 200 to 300 Model 3s/day at Fremont. Seems like if there was a major problem with the production line at Fremont while ramping to 200/day we would know about it by now. If they achieve 300/day this weekend, then getting to 700/day (~ 5,000/week) in the next three months seems likely to me. Seems to me that the logistics of feeding in ever greater volumes of parts and ramping deliveries can be achieved in three months. Failure of the robotics could be a problem, but this issue has been dealt with by Tesla throughout the production of S, X and 3.

 

[mongo]

I mostly agree on the other points (vehicle components do not require an electrician's license IMHO). However on this point:

Regarding supercharger: many EVs built today cannot handle the voltage at Tesla superchargers, their batteries will simply burn out.

I need to chime in. The output from a supercharger is voltage and current controlled. So lower voltage/ capacity packs are electrically compatible (but lack any Tesla specific communication protocol).

 

[X Yes?]

Looks like Tesla has put the battery pack production problem behind them. Currently ramping from 200 to 300 Model 3s/day at Fremont. Seems like if there was a major problem with the production line at Fremont while ramping to 200/day we would know about it by now. If they achieve 300/day this weekend, then getting to 700/day (~ 5,000/week) in the next three months seems likely to me. Seems to me that the logistics of feeding in ever greater volumes of parts and ramping deliveries can be achieved in three months. Failure of the robotics could be a problem, but this issue has been dealt with by Tesla throughout the production of S, X and 3.

The investment community will need proof that whatever number they end with is sustainable. Not an unrealistic "all hands on deck" rate, extrapolated from one day's herculean effort.

 

[K_Dizzle]

The investment community will need proof that whatever number they end with is sustainable. Not an unrealistic "all hands on deck" rate, extrapolated from one day's herculean effort.

How about a weekly total production rate?

 

[sundaymorning]

The investment community will need proof that whatever number they end with is sustainable. Not an unrealistic "all hands on deck" rate, extrapolated from one day's herculean effort.

The end of Q4 was also all hands on deck, that 3 day “Herculean” burst rate became sustainable in Q1, so the exiting rate will likely be sustainable in Q2 with further bursts in the ramp. This is how Tesla operates.

 

[ggr]

OK weekend OT
What SpaceX tech is Model Y gonna use?

Discuss a lot so that the mods move it to another thread

A vertical Titanium grid fin, to assist with steering at 300mph.

 

[Sudre]

Please be careful in your comparisons, InsideEVs numbers are ONLY USA. M3 currently is only produced for USA, Bolt is Worldwide.

If you can find more Bolt's sold please let us know. I am more interested to see if GM is taking it seriously more so than M3 worries. GM has stated they are only going to make around 30K or 2500 a month which is somewhere around 600 a week.

 

[sdtslafan]

The investment community will need proof that whatever number they end with is sustainable. Not an unrealistic "all hands on deck" rate, extrapolated from one day's herculean effort.

Not really, investment community just wants to see exponential improvement...

What is becoming very clear is that the competition is making no progress.

The Bolt is showing no signs of growth over time. Leaf is declining.

Market shares of Mercedes, Audi, and BMW continue to decline in the premium segment.

There is NO EXPONENTIAL GROWTH anywhere in the auto industry other than Tesla.

Investors will jump on the train as soon as they see its about to leave the station.

 

[electricity]

Thanks for the detailed response. Makes alot of sense.

Regarding service: Momentarily Tesla cannot trust 3rd parties to service their cars without some setback. They need technicians who are well versed and trained in dealing with EVs, which means many parts and components would involve a licensed electrician. For instance, my master charger needed replacement, instead of swapping out specific parts that would involve the expertise of an electrician plus a $100 worth of parts, Tesla opted to replace the entire component, which cost $3,000 to ensure my safety. Could Tesla trust a 3rd party to do this? A third party would likely swap out the $100 part and charge the customer $3,000.

Regarding supercharger: many EVs built today cannot handle the voltage at Tesla superchargers, their batteries will simply burn out.

Regarding Sales: Dealers will anti-sell EVs when a customer steps through the door. It’s more profitable for dealers to sell ICE, it benefits their service centers a lot more.

The bottom line is that despite the horrendous cost of expansion, Tesla is footing the bill in order to ensure safety for the consumer while protecting the Tesla brand. Although the costs may be high initially; however, as more EVs are sold and more Model S/X warranties expire, those service centers will eventually become profitable, much in the way that the dealers service centers are a cash cow. My warranty will expire this year, I’ll happily contribute out of pocket for Tesla to service my car. They deserve it, they have put everything on the line for this. I can’t say the same for dealers. Loyalty goes a long way with Tesla owners.

 

[MP3Mike]

The Bolt is showing no signs of growth over time

And really the only reason the Bolt sold as many as they did is that people thought the $7,500 tax credit was going to end on 12/31/2017, as well as good deals from GM.

I think it will be a long time until, if ever again, that they sell >3,000 Bolts in a month.

 

[NicoV]

Fremont, CA, USA to Vancouver, Canada - 967 Miles
Fremont CA, USA to Mexico City, Mexico - 2,287 Miles
Fremont, CA, USA to Toronto, Canada - 2,653 Miles
Fremont, CA, USA to Bacelo, Guatemala - 3,075 Miles
Fremont, CA, USA to New York City, New York, USA - 3,109 Miles.

Glad I don't live in New York City, now that would really be remote.

Wow, I got fooled by Mercator’s projection. And Mercator was born only a few miles from where I live.

I didn’t realise that major cities on the Canadian east coast where closer to Fremont than New York. Still, my argument is probably still valid taking into account that there is a border in between.

 

[ggr]

Wow, I got fooled by Mercator’s projection. And Mercator was born only a few miles from where I live.

Off topic, I know, but when the big Tsunami hit Indonesia in 2004, the Head Office people in San Diego called the sydney Office to make sure we were all OK. I pointed out to them that Seattle was closer, and had open ocean rather than most of a continent twixt it and them.

 

[skitown]

Off topic, I know, but when the big Tsunami hit Indonesia in 2004, the Head Office people in San Diego called the sydney Office to make sure we were all OK. I pointed out to them that Seattle was closer, and had open ocean rather than most of a continent twixt it and them.

I'm confused about you saying Seattle is closer to Indonesia than Sydney. (Continent in between Indonesia and Sydney aside).

Google says:
12,515 km - Distance from Indonesia to Seattle
5,342 km - Distance from Indonesia to Sydney

 

[ValueAnalyst]

The investment community will need proof that whatever number they end with is sustainable. Not an unrealistic "all hands on deck" rate, extrapolated from one day's herculean effort.

There is nothing “all hands on deck” about it other than “a limited number of workers” from the S/X line who had the OPTION to work on Model 3 on the one day the S/X line was shutdown. Please stop trying to mislead people.

 

[Starno]

A few more hours to deliver cars this quarter. Go go go lol

 

[RobStark]

Leaf is declining.

LEAF 2.0 is ramping.

EV Sales: Global Top 10 February 2018

 

[ValueAnalyst]

A few more hours to deliver cars this quarter. Go go go lol

Sounds like you want to jump in and help next to Franz maybe?

 

[X Yes?]

There is nothing “all hands on deck” about it other than “a limited number of workers” from the S/X line who had the OPTION to work on Model 3 on the one day the S/X line was shutdown. Please stop trying to mislead people.

Did you read the Email? Stop with the "trying to mislead people" Your endless cheer leading here and on Seeking Alpha
helped put a number of investors in a tough spot.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

Any field reports from delivery centers today?

I saw here and on Reddit that a bunch of people took delivery of Model 3s yesterday. One lucky Model 3 buyer got his car personally delivered and autographed by Franz. Franz von Holhausen. Franz von Holzhausen personally delivered my Model 3

 

[Crowded Mind]

LEAF 2.0 is ramping.

EV Sales: Global Top 10 February 2018

@RobStark do you know of any similar tables that exclude PHEVs?