bdy0627
Active Member
I thought he said that sometime in November/December/January. Maybe it was the earnings call in early February.
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I have a request for anyone going to the shareholding meeting: please can you suggest to Elon that every future production line contains space for a small sound/light-proof room with comfortable bed and shower?
To me, he looks quite tired in the CBS videos, and that couch looks uncomfortable! I think the return on investment for more comfortable sleeping facilities for Elon could be very worthwhile.
To me, he looks quite tired in the CBS videos, and that couch looks uncomfortable! I think the return on investment for more comfortable sleeping facilities for Elon could be very worthwhile.
Jonathan Hewitt
Active Member
Of course Tesla has real risk in production, recalls, large fire, supplier interruption, competition, recession, etc. Any little thing can interrupt production. Tesla does have certain possibilities to run into unforeseen setbacks. Nobody should under estimate those risks.
But we are talking about a bond-default risk, what is the chance that Tesla bankrupt and default on it's bond? It's near zero.
If you look at the past defaults, look at what the major shareholders did before default. They either sold their shares or bought CDS (default insurance), or they put money into a hedge fund which short their own stock. I have observed this in the past.
Think about what is the chance that Elon secretly bought Tesla CDS, then announce Tesla's bankruptcy. Elon would rather die instead of cheating his supporters like that. That's why if the worst happens, Tesla will be sold to other companies instead of bankruptcy. People who don't understand this probably shouldn't invest in Tesla. Moody's either doesn't understand this, or wants to hurt Tesla at a critical moment. I can't tell which one.
On the other hand, let's look at those legacy car makers. They are selling record number of ICE cars with healthy margin. They have billions of cash (just like Citibank in 2007). So their bonds deserve high rating. Right? I say that's the wrong way to look at it. Car industry is going through a major transition, near the turning point. They are not in a good position to handle this transition. Let's look at this scenario: Someone bought bond from a legacy car maker. Moody's said it's very safe based on their cash reserve and healthy cashflow. Outlook stable. In two years, recession comes, the legacy car maker starts to accumulate debt, it's bond dropped price by a lot, the bond buyers can't sell. But it's fine, "everything will go back to normal after recession". Right at this time, the ownership cost of EV dropped below ICE cars. Everyone wants to buy EV with autonomous driving. Next year, the recession is over, the legacy car maker still can't sell it's cars, by year 5, it announced bankruptcy. What's the likely hood of this scenario to happen? I say the chance is quite real. This kind of scenarios happen all the time. Look at how many old phone companies were wiped out by smart phone. Look at how many publishing companies were wiped out by online media.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
What is the possibility of a different union being created? United EV Workers, or United Tesla Workers. I'd say the UAW's interest is in opposition to those of the Tesla factory workers.
If there are severe near term production or quality issues with model 3, Tesla could certainly be in a situation where they default on debt.
Moody’s conspiracy theories are as helpful as the Bear’s Tesla financial engineering conspiracy theories.
ValueAnalyst
Closed
No, that was not the purpose of Trent's article. The key difference between bull and bear camps is the profitability of Model 3, as explained here. More importantly, I do not know of any analyst who is projecting positive bottom-line before 2020, but Elon seems confident about 2H18. I would expect 2H18 total net income to add up to a cool billion. Interesting times ahead.
Someone in the M3 forum said their wife works at tesla and they did 760 M3’s in a day recently....either that’s an amazing leap regardless of sustainability or that poster should be banned. Hoping for the first option.
Moody’s downgraded Tesla from B2 to B3. It’s still in the same category as described below, but at the more risky end:
Still seems fair to me? In other words, they are saying Tesla is not currently vulnerable, but could be. I’ve read papers that claim Moody’s credit rating accuracy is around 80% over time. Moody’s is not currently saying the sky is falling.
Still seems fair to me? In other words, they are saying Tesla is not currently vulnerable, but could be. I’ve read papers that claim Moody’s credit rating accuracy is around 80% over time. Moody’s is not currently saying the sky is falling.
engle
Member
Original content captured on 4/13: "Secret" Fremont Model 3 off-site large parking lot "porn" video? 
https://youtu.be/TyjqD_297F4 (2:16 video)
PM me if you'd like the address. Hoping someone can estimate the number of 3's in this lot, and monitor it on an ongoing basis on the way to the office, since I don't drive by it everyday, although I live within a 5 mile radius.
I'm really psyched now re: Model 3 production ramp. I'd never seen the main Factory SW staging parking lot so full of cars as I did on Thursday, along with ~8+ active car carriers. That afternoon when I was driving eXstasy to a KM paint store here following the awesome new Tesla Nav down a back road, I drove by a car carrier chock full of 3's that was randomly parked on the side of the road in a R&D building area away from Tesla Factory with no driver in sight.
The video is TSLA's leased large parking lot away from the factory near a friend's office where they are prepping and buffering new cars. My friend took some photos last week and some of the trunks were wide open. My guess is employees were adding things like the charging cable bundle and protective white plastic over parts of the finish prior to loading on the car carriers at the SW factory staging area. There is at least one more of these across from the body shop Tesla uses which appears to prep vehicles that are shipping overseas.
Sorry no Thurs. imagery since was driving my X on AP from Mission Blvd. on the on ramp to I-880 North at high speed. I didn't want to take my hands off the wheel to grab for my phone and potentially help NTSB open another AP investigation!!!
My TSLA "add-on" point is still ~$250 hope it gets there before we never see that level again... Was lucky to add-on at $248 after the eXciting ($25)->($25) week.
Can't wait to order my Model 3 AWD (or surprise Performance model) soon! I wonder what the 0-60 mph time will be?
Disclosure: long TSLA since after I heard Elon unveil the Model S during the "Model S Ride Event" at the factory before there was a functioning production line. Have been adding to my position on the dips every since to the point where my position has grown to almost 30% of my total portfolio! Yikes!!!
https://youtu.be/TyjqD_297F4 (2:16 video)
PM me if you'd like the address. Hoping someone can estimate the number of 3's in this lot, and monitor it on an ongoing basis on the way to the office, since I don't drive by it everyday, although I live within a 5 mile radius.
I'm really psyched now re: Model 3 production ramp. I'd never seen the main Factory SW staging parking lot so full of cars as I did on Thursday, along with ~8+ active car carriers. That afternoon when I was driving eXstasy to a KM paint store here following the awesome new Tesla Nav down a back road, I drove by a car carrier chock full of 3's that was randomly parked on the side of the road in a R&D building area away from Tesla Factory with no driver in sight.
The video is TSLA's leased large parking lot away from the factory near a friend's office where they are prepping and buffering new cars. My friend took some photos last week and some of the trunks were wide open. My guess is employees were adding things like the charging cable bundle and protective white plastic over parts of the finish prior to loading on the car carriers at the SW factory staging area. There is at least one more of these across from the body shop Tesla uses which appears to prep vehicles that are shipping overseas.
Sorry no Thurs. imagery since was driving my X on AP from Mission Blvd. on the on ramp to I-880 North at high speed. I didn't want to take my hands off the wheel to grab for my phone and potentially help NTSB open another AP investigation!!!
My TSLA "add-on" point is still ~$250 hope it gets there before we never see that level again... Was lucky to add-on at $248 after the eXciting ($25)->($25) week.
Can't wait to order my Model 3 AWD (or surprise Performance model) soon! I wonder what the 0-60 mph time will be?
Disclosure: long TSLA since after I heard Elon unveil the Model S during the "Model S Ride Event" at the factory before there was a functioning production line. Have been adding to my position on the dips every since to the point where my position has grown to almost 30% of my total portfolio! Yikes!!!
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In early March the same poster said his inside source told him Tesla was shooting to build 3000 Model 3s that week.
In other words, total BS.
When Will Tesla Sustainably Produce 5,000 Model 3's Per Week?
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davecolene0606
Member
Both u and the Forbes author have obviously never seen the factory first hand.
Fire Away
Crowd-sourced Model S battery life data updated - this should be in the media!
At 95% after 70,000 km, after that a loss of 1% per 50,000 km - extrapolation would have it at 80% (Teslas warranty) only after 820,000 km = 509,000 mi!
Maybe something for @FredLambert ?
Maarten Steinbuch on Twitter
EDIT: Fred was quicker than I: Tesla battery degradation at less than 10% after over 160,000 miles, according to latest data
At 95% after 70,000 km, after that a loss of 1% per 50,000 km - extrapolation would have it at 80% (Teslas warranty) only after 820,000 km = 509,000 mi
!Maybe something for @FredLambert ?
Maarten Steinbuch on Twitter
EDIT: Fred was quicker than I: Tesla battery degradation at less than 10% after over 160,000 miles, according to latest data
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I think the employees are better off with the status quo (no union). If Tesla continues to grow as Elon hopes, workers who joined in early 2013 and stick around for 10-15 years could have a couple million dollars in stock, and later arrivals could also do very well too. Elon Musk addresses Tesla employees in leaked email: claims higher comp than Ford/GM, lower incident rate, & new ‘roller coaster’ Also, Tesla seems to have been responsive to concerns about demanding hours and worker safety.
As importantly, Tesla is growing extremely fast which translates to opportunities and job security. Given decades of layoffs in the US automotive industry, if I were a Tesla worker/shareholder I'd rather make my bets with Elon than with a union. In any case, with a company as dynamic as Tesla is now, I think the bureaucracy that comes along with a union is not in anyone's interest, including the employee-shareholders building the cars.
Another thought about this "too much robots"...
Original plan was 500k in 2020. I suspect the path towards it included a start in 2017 with much less robots and much more manual work. During next three years more and more robots would replace people and increase the output towards those 400k M3 in 2020 (plus 1k S/X). Much the same as they did with S.
Then came the reveal, hundreds of thousands of preorders and a necessary corollary: "Most of them will have to wait for 4 years... unacceptable, we have to rethink this".
The robots that were supposed to be installed in 2020 were pulled into 2018. All of them.
After the delay the wait is not that different from that from the original plan and the decision may not look like a prudent one anymore. Such is life. What we do not know is how many delays would some different decisions cause.
Suck it up, make it work.
Original plan was 500k in 2020. I suspect the path towards it included a start in 2017 with much less robots and much more manual work. During next three years more and more robots would replace people and increase the output towards those 400k M3 in 2020 (plus 1k S/X). Much the same as they did with S.
Then came the reveal, hundreds of thousands of preorders and a necessary corollary: "Most of them will have to wait for 4 years... unacceptable, we have to rethink this".
The robots that were supposed to be installed in 2020 were pulled into 2018. All of them.
After the delay the wait is not that different from that from the original plan and the decision may not look like a prudent one anymore. Such is life. What we do not know is how many delays would some different decisions cause.
Suck it up, make it work.
The next day the same poster gave an update (look a bit further in the same thread) that they didn't come anywhere close to that goal... So still checks out. Doesn't mean it's true, but also doesn't mean they are just making stuff up.
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