General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Hogfighter]

She thinks conventionally. Inside the NYC-DC bubble.

California-West Coast money is long TSLA.

Boston-NYC-DC money is short TSLA.

As a general rule.

Thinking conventionally, as your peers do, is not evil or make you part of a conspiracy.

It is shortcut thinking we must do on most subjects.

Nobody can do a deep dive on everything.

Couldn’t agree more. I have 2 friends that are high up in the financial world (one you’d probably recognize), both own Tesla’s, and both have a certain disdain for TSLA. Have been talking me out of investing in TSLA since it was at 31

 

[Mrr82]

The next day the same poster gave an update (look a bit further in the same thread) that they didn't come anywhere close to that goal... So still checks out. Doesn't mean it's true, but also doesn't mean they are just making stuff up.

Yea checked out his history, been posting a long time. His comment was about the past so then it’s possible it’s true then.

 

[adiggs]

Couldn’t agree more. I have 2 friends that are high up in the financial world (one you’d probably recognize), both own Tesla’s, and both have a certain disdain for TSLA. Have been talking me out of investing in TSLA since it was at 31

And hopefully, for your sake, failing

 

[22522]

Wow! They got rid of the automated warehouses. Reminds me of the Denver airport baggage handling conveyor system fiasco.

That is a relief. A no value add distraction.

What you are looking for is economy of motion, effort and work investment on the path from the supplier to the customer.

If parts come in on a “roll up the sides” beer truck, all within easy reach of the robot that pulls the part off the beer truck and puts the part on the chassis, you can’t do much better than that.

Orientation from the supplier is ideally saved, so you don’t have to feed OR orient the part.

 

[dc_h]

No, that was not the purpose of Trent's article. The key difference between bull and bear camps is the profitability of Model 3, as explained here. More importantly, I do not know of any analyst who is projecting positive bottom-line before 2020, but Elon seems confident about 2H18. I would expect 2H18 total net income to add up to a cool billion. Interesting times ahead.

I hope you’re right. I expect any meaningful profit and positive cash flow will push almost shorts to the exits. The Moody’s thing could be reversed and upgrade the bonds if they are profitable. The funds that have rating restrictions would come back in as well. I’m glad I’m out of calls and just holding stock for now. 2019 or 2020 calms cokld be great, but out of the money have such a high premium it seems wiser to use derp jn the money, or just buy and hold and avoid worrying Day to Day. I do think profits by a ZEV is not enough, needs to be from operations.
Hope you are right, they’re going to need a lot of money for capex in 2019.
For cap preservation any chance they just increase capacity of the Model 3 line and run the Y production from the same system? Model S and X share parts of the assembly line, with more aligned components, could 3 and Y run on the same line? Getting capacity to 15 or 20,000 a week would be pretty crazy. Just logistics to ship the out fast enough would be a challenge.

 

[Waiting4M3]

GM cutting 1,500 jobs at Ohio plant amid falling demand for small cars

GM keeps shrinking, but not quickly enough. April 26 will be an interesting day.

Tesla could buy one of these struggling ICE plants and simply put in new tooling and equipment for Model Y production.

 

[MacRocket]

Moody's is a respected credit agency. When they downgraded TSLA debt, bond prices fell. You can't point at 2007/2008 and say "well, Moody's is worthless."

Moody's does make errors, but they still command market respect.

What In The World Is Tesla Doing? Bizarre Manufacturing Processes Produce Massive Cash Burn

Tesla does not have the capital to build the Model Y AND the Roadster AND the Semi. They've currently promised all three. Even if you believe Musk's "cash flow positive" statement (which you shouldn't), it's still insufficient.

I'm personally stunned by the TSLA stock price; it seems like they're in full crisis mode now. Between continued Model 3 quality issues, a borked production process, multiple impossible promises, autopilot problems, possible SEC violations, and continuing cash burned, Tesla is in trouble.

You seem to be very negative on Tesla MattEnth. Perhaps if you have a drive of one you, like me, will change your mind?

 

[Waiting4M3]

Another thought about this "too much robots"...

Original plan was 500k in 2020. I suspect the path towards it included a start in 2017 with much less robots and much more manual work. During next three years more and more robots would replace people and increase the output towards those 400k M3 in 2020 (plus 1k S/X). Much the same as they did with S.

Then came the reveal, hundreds of thousands of preorders and a necessary corollary: "Most of them will have to wait for 4 years... unacceptable, we have to rethink this".
The robots that were supposed to be installed in 2020 were pulled into 2018. All of them.

After the delay the wait is not that different from that from the original plan and the decision may not look like a prudent one anymore. Such is life. What we do not know is how many delays would some different decisions cause.

Suck it up, make it work.

If Elon had waited to ramp in 2020 then some of the difficulties will have remained unknown till then, and it may hit Model Y ramp as well. It's better that Tesla learned the lesson now, not in 2020.

 

[Intl Professor]

I made the wrong assumption that the CIA is really good at deterring Chinese spies.

Or, was NSA responsible for letting their toolkit into the wild? I really don't know. On a different level Stuxnet didn't help as a demo for other mischief.

 

[WarpedOne]

@Waiting4M3
Absolutely.

"It's not a car, it's a Tesla." —Unknown member.

Hey!
That was me in 2012!

 

[zmarty]

Shorts have started a dumpster fire on Twitter with this updated lawsuit: Tesla Lawsuit | Tesla Model S | Ford Motor Company

Notice who uploaded the file, our good friend: Uploaded by Mark Spiegel

 

[MacRocket]

In early March the same poster said his inside source told him Tesla was shooting to build 3000 Model 3s that week.

In other words, total BS.

When Will Tesla Sustainably Produce 5,000 Model 3's Per Week?

I didn’t think it was BS. I thought the poster said they were aiming for a 3000 burst rate but something went wrong and they didn’ achieve it on that occasion. They are getting closer now.

 

[Jonathan Hewitt]

The shorts have started a dumpster fire on Twitter with this updated lawsuit: Tesla Lawsuit | Tesla Model S | Ford Motor Company

Notice who uploaded the file, our good friend: Uploaded by Mark Spiegel

Who wants to file a lawsuit against Mark B.S. for promising everyone $0/share back in 2016? I dare say Elon has come a lot closer to his estimates than Mark has to his.

 

[ggr]

On a different level Stuxnet didn't help as a demo for other mischief.

I can't tell whether you're being serious or not, about Stuxnet. It became a prototype for Duqu and a bunch of SCADA system attacks.

 

[Mrr82]

Who wants to file a lawsuit against Mark B.S. for promising everyone $0/share back in 2016? I dare say Elon has come a lot closer to his estimates than Mark has to his.

Was about to say something similar. He should be in jail. Elon isn’t always right, but spiegel constantly posts false things and straight out lies.

 

[Intl Professor]

I think the employees are better off with the status quo (no union). If Tesla continues to grow as Elon hopes, workers who joined in early 2013 and stick around for 10-15 years could have a couple million dollars in stock, and later arrivals could also do very well too. Elon Musk addresses Tesla employees in leaked email: claims higher comp than Ford/GM, lower incident rate, & new ‘roller coaster’ Also, Tesla seems to have been responsive to concerns about demanding hours and worker safety.

As importantly, Tesla is growing extremely fast which translates to opportunities and job security. Given decades of layoffs in the US automotive industry, if I were a Tesla worker/shareholder I'd rather make my bets with Elon than with a union. In any case, with a company as dynamic as Tesla is now, I think the bureaucracy that comes along with a union is not in anyone's interest, including the employee-shareholders building the cars.

I'm a union member, an AFT affiliate. In the first Jerry Brown administration or earlier the associate and full professors got a unilateral salary cut of 2 percent because one key legislator didn't like the Chancellor, a real turkey we didn't like either. A court case decided it ultimately with the argument "you don't have a union so you don't have a contract." Then we unionized and were abused by the Chancellors and successors ever since. In personal experience we don't have a malicious union as some here describe, though we and in some states as we see from news these days, legislators must complain about the very strong teachers union in California politics.

One of my sons works in a co-op bakery as a mechanic and makes more than I ever earned when at full salary. In a sense he has a situation like the worker-control councils under Tito in Yugoslavia. These were a disaster since the workers screwed up by distributions directly to themselves, neglecting investment in the future.

Sounds like Tesla management is right on. A genius and near genius board, with no union yet workers with opportunity to really own it.

 

[Intl Professor]

I can't tell whether you're being serious or not, about Stuxnet. It became a prototype for Duqu and a bunch of SCADA system attacks.

Probably serious but maybe ignorant. Thought use of the word "other" included sufficient notice the two instances of problems involved were different. Don't know what Duqu or SCADA means. Do they include or differentiate between NSA toolkit breach as opposed to Stuxnet which somehow also got breached into the wild? (Possibly by reverse engineering by the Iranians?) Maybe the problems are the same; again ignorance. The Buddha on this subject is weak in me here. Enlightenment needed.

 

[Intl Professor]

@Waiting4M3
Absolutely.


Hey!
That was me in 2012!

And I wasn't here yet and thought you was me when someone and I were competing in developing slogans expressing our love for Tesla!

 

[30seconds]

That lawsuit is a dumpster fire. Being a few months behind schedule due to unforeseen challenges is going to get laughed right out of court. Especially since the risk factors filed with the financial data clearly lays this out.

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

I'm a union member, an AFT affiliate. In the first Jerry Brown administration or earlier the associate and full professors got a unilateral salary cut of 2 percent because one key legislator didn't like the Chancellor, a real turkey we didn't like either. A court case decided it ultimately with the argument "you don't have a union so you don't have a contract." Then we unionized and were abused by the Chancellors and successors ever since. In personal experience we don't have a malicious union as some here describe, though we and in some states as we see from news these days, legislators must complain about the very strong teachers union in California politics.

One of my sons works in a co-op bakery as a mechanic and makes more than I ever earned when at full salary. In a sense he has a situation like the worker-control councils under Tito in Yugoslavia. These were a disaster since the workers screwed up by distributions directly to themselves, neglecting investment in the future.

Sounds like Tesla management is right on. A genius and near genius board, with no union yet workers with opportunity to really own it.

Weekend off-topic question: Why do unions get a monopoly on representation? If most of us agree that the UAW is corrupt, why not have a different union that would offer lower membership fees and better results with management as its main selling points? Then UAW can't complain about Tesla being anti-union, since the employees simply prefer better representation!