General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[justvisiting]

An extra 800m in a quarter is what...~1400/week M3? Sounds do-able. Especially if M3 capex is mostly already done and MY/Semi expenses are put on hold.

Any other news is just icing. Should easly get us to 360$.

Soooo... assuming a quarter has 13 weeks, 1400 M3 a week is 18.200 M3 in a quarter.
800 million / 18.200 M3 = 43.950$ per car.

So let me know one thing: Do you
a) believe that one M3 contributes 43.950 of NET PROFIT
b) you dont understand the difference between profit/losses and revenue.

Either way, thats a shocking level of financial illiteracy, even for tesla bulls. Sorry.

 

[kbM3]

I’ve heard a lot of short squeeze talk over the years that never led to anything. My investment decisions are based on the assumption that it won’t happen. It’s good to position yourself to capture a black swan if it happens, but you shouldn’t plan on it happening.

I've been here since the last time people talked about a short squeeze which never materialized. Would it be nice if it happened? Sure. I would like to retire tomorrow. But I know better than to think it will. But we might be on the cusp of another major run-up so accumulating shares and holding long would be smart.

This is not just short squeeze talk. Elon is 1 for 1, to my knowledge, predicting short squeezes.

Here's my take:

Probability Elon believes a large short squeeze will happen: > 95%. I can't imagine him saying this if he doesn't believe it. I know the shorts can since they believe he's a con man.

Probability Elon is correct, if that is his belief: > 60%.
Total Probability > 50%.

 

[kelevra]

This is not just short squeeze talk. Elon is 1 for 1, to my knowledge, predicting short squeezes.

Here's my take:

Probability Elon believes a large short squeeze will happen: > 95%. I can't imagine him saying this if he doesn't believe it. I know the shorts can since they believe he's a con man.

Probability Elon is correct, if that is his belief: > 60%.
Total Probability > 50%.

as a ceo Elon needs to uphold the moral of employees (most important) and investors (somewhat important). People having trust, confidence and motivation is a very important part of every business. Therefore the probability of an actual short squeeze is in my opinion much lower maybe Elon thinks it's 30% and in reality it's 20%. If there is a "next level" short squeeze it's probably about the amount short sellers are going to loose and not the surge in %. Still thinking about adding options just in case.

 

[WarpedOne]

Therefore the probability of an actual short squeeze is in my opinion much lower maybe Elon thinks it's 30% and in reality it's 20%. I

What difference does it make?
The point is - there is +38 M borrowed shares that will HAVE to be bought and a shortage of (obvious) sellers.
Much of clever shorts closed their position by borrowing from new less-clever shorts that will be left holding the bag in the end.

This short-part of the story resembles the real Ponzi scheme. As long as there is big enough influx of news shorts, old shorts can cover at low prices. Once this inflow stops rising, the covering will get hard.

Remember shorts do not get to choose between sell now or sell later, they have to choose between buy now or buy later while paying interest for every single day.

 

[avoigt]

New Batch of registrations (about 5k)

Matthew Koloski on Twitter

 

[ggr]

New Batch of registrations (about 5k)

Matthew Koloski on Twitter

Hmmm, 5k new registrations one week after the last lot... I wonder what production rate that would be...

 

[kelevra]

What difference does it make?
The point is - there is +38 M borrowed shares that will HAVE to be bought and a shortage of (obvious) sellers.
Much of clever shorts closed their position by borrowing from new less-clever shorts that will be left holding the bag in the end.

This short-part of the story resembles the real Ponzi scheme. As long as there is big enough influx of news shorts, old shorts can cover at low prices. Once this inflow stops rising, the covering will get hard.

Remember shorts do not get to choose between sell now or sell later, they have to choose between buy now or buy later while paying interest for every single day.

most shorts are pretty convinced the same as longs are. They are willing to pay interest and double down on their investment (just by holding if prices rise) unlike there are truly great news. Hitting 5k a week by the end of june would be such news but i don't think the probability of this happening is greater than 30%. In the mind of the shorts Tesla will fail to reach it's goals, long investors are going to sell and shorts are going to cover cheaply.

 

[Waiting4M3]

I just have read that they marked the lifespan of an EV with 150 k km! Thats unrealistic low but okay for an ICE car. We have seen S with 600 k Km and still running just fine. Batteries can be recycled as well so the carbon footprint gets better and better with every mile.

If you set the parameters right you can twist all data in a way that the results is in line what you are looking for.

It's wrong for ICE also. Average American car lifetime is 11.5 years, and drive 10k miles each year, that's around 185k km...

 

[Waiting4M3]

Soooo... assuming a quarter has 13 weeks, 1400 M3 a week is 18.200 M3 in a quarter.
800 million / 18.200 M3 = 43.950$ per car.

So let me know one thing: Do you
a) believe that one M3 contributes 43.950 of NET PROFIT
b) you dont understand the difference between profit/losses and revenue.

Either way, thats a shocking level of financial illiteracy, even for tesla bulls. Sorry.

Assuming 12 weeks per quarter (allow for shutdown for maintenance), 5k/wk M3, $58k ASP, M3 will contribute $3.77b revenue per quarter. At 20% margin (Q4), it contributes 754m gross profit.

Caveats:

• Q3 margin is known, we may have better idea after Q2
• 2H'18 ASP may be higher that $58K due to D and P models
• Q4 production volume likely higher than 5k/wk

 

[dw4ngg]

most shorts are pretty convinced the same as longs are. They are willing to pay interest and double down on their investment (just by holding if prices rise) unlike there are truly great news. Hitting 5k a week by the end of june would be such news but i don't think the probability of this happening is greater than 30%. In the mind of the shorts Tesla will fail to reach it's goals, long investors are going to sell and shorts are going to cover cheaply.

Thx for the random info. Will value it cheaply

 

[Todd Burch]

Average American own their car for 79 months (11.6 years)

Minor correction: 79 mos = 6.58 yrs

 

[bhtooefr]

It's wrong for ICE also. Average American own their car for 79 months (11.6 years), and drive 10k miles each year, that's around 185k km, just from the 1st owner. Then most of the cars get resold to 2nd owner....

From what I've heard, Germans start getting really scared of their ICE cars at 100-150k km, and dump them on eastern Europe before they start racking up huge repair bills.

Which explains why the things are considered to be so damn unreliable here, yet aren't there - the Germans are used to that level of unreliability, and I guess just don't know about actually reliable cars, instead ditching and buying another before things get too bad.

 

[Waiting4M3]

Minor correction: 79 mos = 6.58 yrs

Thanks I miss read, I've corrected.

 

[Waiting4M3]

From what I've heard, Germans start getting really scared of their ICE cars at 100-150k km, and dump them on eastern Europe before they start racking up huge repair bills.

Which explains why the things are considered to be so damn unreliable here, yet aren't there - the Germans are used to that level of unreliability, and I guess just don't know about actually reliable cars, instead ditching and buying another before things get too bad.

How much of it is encouraged by government incentives to buy company cars? If what I heard many years ago is still true, Japan raises car registration significantly on older cars. Maybe these 2 car producing countries have significant government incentives in place to encourage people to buy new cars more often?

 

[TradingInvest]

This morning added more as planned. Took some float out of circulation. Shorts won't be able to cover from my shares.

This is a rare opportunity.

 

[SunCatcher]

Strange times we live in; when such massive assuredness of bankwuptcy results in a company's stock price skyrocketing.

 

[SteveG3]

Gali on Bloomberg, about 4 minutes,

YouTuber Taunts Wall Street's Tesla Analysts

 

[Remus]

Gali on Bloomberg, about 4 minutes,

YouTuber Taunts Wall Street's Tesla Analysts

those questions are hostile! Should have slapped the fact to their face that the "bone headed" questions have been answered both in the letter and in the conversation before hime!

 

[SteveG3]

those questions are hostile! Should have slapped the fact to their face that the "bone headed" questions have been answered both in the letter and in the conversation before hime!

I can appreciate where you are coming from : )

Gali pushed back some. He does pretty well on his feet. That said, I would have liked if Gali had pointed out that the “many questions” Elon pushed aside were only two and not near as important as the host implied (Gali did speak to the low quality of the questions some).

 

[dc_h]

most shorts are pretty convinced the same as longs are. They are willing to pay interest and double down on their investment (just by holding if prices rise) unlike there are truly great news. Hitting 5k a week by the end of june would be such news but i don't think the probability of this happening is greater than 30%. In the mind of the shorts Tesla will fail to reach it's goals, long investors are going to sell and shorts are going to cover cheaply.

Schroedenger is renaming his cat Tesla. Tesla is the best short bet, and the best long term investment in existence. Until Elon opens the earnings box in Q2 or 3, the stock will be a dead zero and a live hero. Who knows, maybe the box opens sooner.