bambam4171
Member
This is brilliant! They say they have cost of material of 18k, cost of production 10k and that is with a 50k car!
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Munro, a far more respected name in the automobile sector, came to the result that the parts of the model 3 alone are around 38.000$. Thats a huge ass difference, one of them is extremely wrong, and i doubt that its Munro, but rather the unknown company...
Second, the article says that they can now reap a huge proft because the model 3 can be sold for 100-130k $ on the "grey market". Thats absolute bull, you can buy one on ebay immediately for 50-54k, most model 3s offered on ebay dont even get a bid. Makes you question the quality of the article.
You are quoting numbers as per August 2017. I guess they are quite different now...
article from May 31, 2018, from Australian press (i'm GMT -5)
Why so many people are so desperate for Tesla and Musk to fail
also, recent article on SA about Musk "battery swapping demonstration could have been fabricated" implying badness to get money
(back to mostly lurk mode)
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Krugerrand
Meow
The article does not state that the Model 3 will be profitable because it can be sold for 100-130k on the grey market. You are distorting what was written. The article stated the car that was disassembled was from an employee bought on the grey market where prices range from 100-130k.
I would think the group that did the tear down knows their costing well. They referenced the battery content and appear to do this as a paid for service so my guess is they are as credible as Munro, if not more.
Sean Wagner
Member
According to the freely available article, this teardown analysis was done on assignment from German automotive manufacturers.
Quantifying the cost of battery pack production [the most expensive item] is going to be a more or less-well informed estimate.
Le's keep in mind the optimized design of the process for doing just that hails from Germany, and competence in automation is relatively widely diffused there.
If Munro's number is anywhere close to correct for optimized mass production, Tesla is not going to last long, and I doubt they would have gone ahead with the Model 3.
Quantifying the cost of battery pack production [the most expensive item] is going to be a more or less-well informed estimate.
Le's keep in mind the optimized design of the process for doing just that hails from Germany, and competence in automation is relatively widely diffused there.
If Munro's number is anywhere close to correct for optimized mass production, Tesla is not going to last long, and I doubt they would have gone ahead with the Model 3.
i was extracting a single quote from article about my favorite short Mark BS.
the overall article is why many varied interest want TSLA to fail. I have extracted a few profits from my shares of TSLA, had a nice "Vaca", still own TSLA stock. am slowly increasing my shares again, but diversifying to what goes into the batteries, Mg, Co, other ones in periodic table close by, streamlined processes to make battery components, but am a beginner/newbie, eh.
I believe this is a very good Article!
Wirtschaftswoche (Business Week) has been very negative against Tesla repeating every nonsense and FUD they can get since 2012. The author has a good solid background and is focussing on EVs since a while here in Germany as well as in CA. He is not a fanboy but also did not spread FUD as far as I can see.
This one is the first I read that has a positive sentiment. They confirm that a German Engineering Services working for the Auto industry was de-assembling the 3 down to the last screw last week at a German OEM shop and came up with the results stated. This does sound reasonable and realistic to me as we know that the OEMs imported a few before that they bought on the grey market and they are still trying to build their own profitable first EV. We have pictures to prove that. Also there is no mention about eBay.They bought the car from private US owner for 100 - 130k$.
Beside the 18k in material and supplier costs and the 10k in assembly costs and associated they have found in the Batterie just 2,8% cobalt versus 8% that others have. We know that Tesla is trying to get this further down. This is called a huge advantage for Tesla given skyrocketing prices for that metal as well as questionable human right standards and child labour in mines in Congo. I heard that argument often in Germany as a big negative for any EV producer so that makes a difference and is another moat Tesla build. VW for instance has still no even a contract for cobalt.... asking myself where the batteries for the 1M cars will come from they plan for.
Finally assuming the numbers are about right and a high output of 10k/w, ASP 55K$ we look at a profit for the Model 3 of about 50%! I am fully aware this is simplification and we likely be much lower but it does show what is feasible (first principle).
Anyway there is a long way to go for any other Automaker to build an EV that is even profitable. The market today does not believe that Tesla can build the 3 with profits, Tesla and German Automakers have obviously a different opinion.
Once the market realizes this and first prove comes out we should see a strong bull run.
Krugerrand
Meow
You are the one insinuating that;
A) the losses MS incurred are irrelevant because from last summer
B) the losses MS incurred last summer are irrelevant because the stock is recently down putting him on the right side of the trade
So how about not ‘guessing’ and pulling out the usually passive aggressive post and back your position up with factual data and post us the numbers for MS’s company related to his Tesla short and show us just how much dough the guy is rolling in.
The production costs cannot be analyized by disassembling the car.. you have to know how Tesla is putting it together and how much capex they have already spent...
Krugerrand
Meow
Because you’re an expert in this field? Do tell.
I just pointed to stale numbers which are questioning the value of his statements (MS lost money). I don‘t think hate posts about Tesla haters belong here.
Can you amplify this please? or repost link to article please. I'm very interested in the batteries, as probably are others. I've been following Co mines in Australia Thackaringa area, that seems to be a reduction of 65% in Co! And how fine granular are the cathodes and anodes crystalline structures if thats there please
bambam4171
Member
How do you know Munro is more respected. Do you know who did the disassembly?
As for the second bit: They just write that they bought the Tesla from Tesla Employees and that those employees sold it for 100-130k, not what you state.
It's not a "hate posts about Tesla haters", it's a comment on a larger article about the varied reasons many folks want Tesla/TSLA to fail, a friendly reminder, however, i apologize if it's in the wrong forum
Krugerrand
Meow
His post wasn’t a hate post. He pulled a direct and factual quote from the article. That is all and you know it.
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