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General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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Norway registrations exceeded 50 today. At this pace, 2Q18 could be massive given April and May were also elevated. Something to watch.

Tesla stated that they were moving away from the old model of having a gigantic sales event in the third month of each quarter and trying to even out the flow of vehicles to Europe:

  1. We are in the process of changing the quarterly production pattern of Model S and X vehicles for the various worldwide regions to ensure a more linear flow of deliveries through the quarter.

    I'm delighted that April/May are strong for Tesla in Norway but I now expect June to be a modest "bump" higher and not a blow out event.

 
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Tesla stated that they were moving away from the old model of having a gigantic sales event in the third month of each quarter and trying to even out the flow of vehicles to Europe:

  1. We are in the process of changing the quarterly production pattern of Model S and X vehicles for the various worldwide regions to ensure a more linear flow of deliveries through the quarter.

    I'm delighted that April/May are strong for Tesla in Norway but I now expect June to be a modest "bump" higher and not a blow out event.

Yes, maybe today's 54 is a one-off. We'll see in the coming days; something to watch.
 
I added shares today with new cash. Still hope to see better entry points later. I think from long term view this stock is really attractive, downside is limited.

My rough estimate by 2025:
Number of vehicles sold 3.6 million, mostly Model Y (1.5m), Model 3 (1m) and pickup truck (0.8m).
Revenue $238.5B (including revenue from Tesla Network)
Gross margin $49.8B
 
I am sharing the extended letter that I just sent Tesla via my owner access as a car owner. Despite my lengthy wording, which exceeded the 4K character (not my character:p) limit, this version gives the detail of where the concept came from. You are encouraged to contact congress people and your local military command if you care to get involved. Here goes:

Elon/Tesla

SUBJECT: EV Charging on Military Posts 30 May 2018

As you may be aware, Sandy and I own Xena (Model X).

A week ago, I drove onto Fort Lewis (Washington) to pick up a large special order of suet for our neighborhood birds from the commissary. As I entered the base the first traffic light provides a chance to pause and look around conjuring up memories of a time gone by. I removed a few cobwebs as I glanced over at the eighteen gas pump station to my left front that reminded me of some waits exceeding twenty to thirty minutes to tank up (top off), pay and get back on the road, in my old ICE days. Part of the problem was having to pay someone in a box, and hoses only long enough to reach a car with the filling port on the side of the pump. Lessons learned and slow advent of pay at the pump with a credit card and longer hoses; well things got better and faster, but still long lines. Following my enlisted time, from 1969 to 1972, I moved into the reserves from active duty. I seem to think I recall the gas being roughly $0.10 (California) cheaper on post because we did not pay state taxes. Later and more recently, again lessons learned, the military now brings the on-post fuel up to the same price as off-post gas stations and uses the extra/tax money to fund things for soldiers like TVs, pool tables, etc. (just as a guess) in what used to be called Day Rooms (common areas). Again, if I am correct in my foggy memory, several of us gathered in the day room on the 20th of July 1969 to watch the moon landing. So, our tax payers got their monies worth out of that particular TV. I was at Fort Dix at the time.

Okay, enough of the walk down memory lane, and back to my drive onto Fort Lewis. First, I was driving the only Tesla around☹ Then I recalled the gas days gone by. . . The approach to getting EVs on post takes planning and a vision ~ probably some arm twisting too. The military is driven by fossil fuel (tanks, planes and some boats), in case anyone reading this lacks knowledge of the military as whole. Currently there are no on-post Supercharger’s, and I doubt that on-post housing provides car chargers. The question is, from my perspective, “why not”? Gee, let me guess ~ EVs are not fossil fuel? FYI ~ once upon a time the military bent over backwards to be environmentally friendly.

In keeping with the Tesla Supercharger scenario, place a bank in the parking lot of the PX complex. At Lewis, there is plenty of room and a location that would keep our friends from ICEing us out of the stalls. The MPs probably would be eager to ticket anyone misusing the parking stalls:) And, maybe there is a way of providing that charging (free) to Model 3s (only on bases during transition) as the infrastructure is expanded to the on-post housing area.

As I recall from the old days, living in on-post housing meant not just rent free, but utility free too. Regardless, if today’s soldiers are actually charged for utilities, then there should not be a problem. Why not work with the post commanders to begin installing EV car chargers at every home, starting with the soldier’s purchase of an EV, then as time and monies permit, include all on-post housing. Can and are the commanders willing to provide free charging for their soldiers that buy EVs ~ regardless of manufacture? I am not sure. . . In Tesla’s case I would encourage the NEMA 14-50 at each location (non-supercharger location) to support all makes and models (I think and hope). Maybe Tesla could drag Chevy, Ford and the others kicking and screaming along claiming to be moving towards EVs.

FYI ~ we installed a NEST thermostat, probably any good WiFi brand will work, but since installing we have reduced our monthly bill by twenty to forty dollars and that includes the charging of Xena nightly over the last year.

I am more than willing to assist wherever possible should you wish to try thinking through your game plan or even implementing a plan. I am not interested in money; helping the military transition their soldiers from fossil fuel to EV cars would be exciting to me. I designed, produced a prototype, and convinced the army to produce a world-wide field artillery manual driven war game in 1982/3 that trained down to the platoon level, leadership and thus saving thousands of dollars each time a battalion did not go out into the field to train ~ they did it on the game board. I received my one and only army commendation medal (ARCOM) ~ no money, no promotion, just a medal that would never buy me a cup of coffee as the saying went in those days. Hey, maybe you’ll give me a second Tesla coffee cup so we have a pair:) I am just a dyed in the wool Tesla supporter and everything EV.

I also fully understand that this concept may not gain any traction, but hey nothing ventured, nothing gained.

Sincerely,


Bruce & Sandy
 
Tesla replied very quickly and suggested this link for such input ~ charging stations. Charging Partners | Tesla
Let’s get EVs off the ground, so to say. Flying into ponds does not help that much. However, having a flooded Model S start up after being flooded in a tropical storm, well that is impressive.

Okay, back on track. If our men and women in uniform know they can buy a Leaf or a Tesla Pickup and charge it in the comfort of their on-base housing ~ and beat the holy living crap out of their platoon sergeants fossil fuel sports car, you can bet they will start buying EVs. Just sayin’:cool:

Besides getting chargers on base(s) would be the next best thing to fielding the first MLRS battery to Europe back in 1983. The pay sucked, but it scared the crap out of the Russians :eek:
 
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Not until they merge into one company.

fwiw
EVsales's writer tracks 3 differing metrics

model (ie Renault Zoe)
brand (ie Renault)
oem (the Alliance (RNM))

in any one report the leading model/brand/oem tend to be different,
typically
BAIC is the leading model
BYD is the leading brand
RNM is the leading OEM

currently
model
Nissan LEAF is YTD best seller and BAIC EC is month's best seller

brand
BYD is both year and month best seller

OEM
RNM alilance is YTD best seller
BYD is probably month best seller


other relevant OEMs are VW (VW, Porsche, Audi, etc)
and Li Shufu's Geely (Geely, Volvo, Lotus, PROTON)
 
fwiw
EVsales's writer tracks 3 differing metrics

model (ie Renault Zoe)
brand (ie Renault)
oem (the Alliance (RNM))

Doesn't change the FACT Renault and Nissan are separate companies even if they have cross holding shares and share the same Chairman of the Board.

Nissan owns a controlling(according to Japanese law) 34% stake in Mitsubishi Motors. So that is good enough to consider them one company.
 
I added shares today with new cash. Still hope to see better entry points later. I think from long term view this stock is really attractive, downside is limited.

My rough estimate by 2025:
Number of vehicles sold 3.6 million, mostly Model Y (1.5m), Model 3 (1m) and pickup truck (0.8m).
Revenue $238.5B (including revenue from Tesla Network)
Gross margin $49.8B
with the right strategy next 31/2 years are the time to make some serious positively slanted outcome in TSLA using triple leverage stock plus calls/puts
I've got some ideas
basically not dissimilar to running a triple leveraged fund in TSLA not dissimilar to FAS or TNA
I might just call it TTT007
the next big thing will be SPACEX
buy it in private markets during the next market crash if it does not come public by then
 
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with the right strategy next 31/2 years are the time to make some serious positively slanted outcome in TSLA using triple leverage stock plus calls/puts
I've got some ideas
basically not dissimilar to running a triple leveraged fund in TSLA not dissimilar to FAS or TNA
I might just call it TTT007
the next big thing will be SPACEX
I might buy it in private markets during the next market crash if it does not come public by then

Just don't be on vacation on the next margin call :)
 
High-value automakers

World's most valuable car brands in billions; rank in top global 100; % value change from 2017

1.
Toyota $29.99 (36) +5
2. Mercedes $25.68 (46) +9
3. BMW $25.62 (47) +4
4. Ford $12.74 (96) -2
5. Honda $12.70 (97) +4
6. Nissan $11.43 (*) +1
7. Audi $9.63 (*) +3
8. Tesla $9.42 (*) +60
9. Maruti Suzuki $6.38 (*) --
10. Volkswagen $5.99 (*) --

(*) Did not rank in the top 100 global brands
Source: Kantar Millward Brown
I am betting Tesla will pass Nissan next year as the model 3 becomes a global phenomenon. once the Y is introduced and the next plant announced, they can start approaching bmw/Mercedes in 2020.
 
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