General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[ClownMouth]

@Curt Renz and any others that may have contact with CNBC or other news outlets: Galileo Russell of HyperChange most recent video debunked many of noted short seller James Chanos' claims about why Tesla will be worth nothing.

During that broadcast he invited/suggested that he and Chanos debate one on one the merits of investing in TSLA and the reasons Chanos feels Tesla will fail.

I propose we all do our best to make this happen. Call, email, tweet, etc. to CNBC and others about this challenge. Financial news outlets love to headline news about Tesla/EM. This would be great on a couple levels: A bear and a bull....or a seasoned veteran vs a millennial ..

I have emailed Cramer/CNBC about this......We helped get Galileo on the last conference call and it led to a spot on CNBC where he held his own very well.......Let us do it again.

I think we need to be careful what we wish for with this. I like this guy Galileo's spirit and I think it was nice of Elon to take his questions on the last earnings call. But that ended up being a win for Galileo in large part because Elon was "using/employing" (can't quite find the right word here, I do not mean USING him in a negative way) him as a way to redirect how that call was going. Those weren't the greatest questions, and if some other analyst asked them they might have been treated quite differently. Elon had the benefit of knowing that this guy is a Tesla supporter and there was no uncertainty about whether he was asking questions that would elicit answers he could twist the next day in a report bashing Tesla.

This video debunking Chanos is again made with good intentions. But some of the rebuttals to those 8 points are just "I disagree" without much substance. I'm not going to re-watch it to find every example - and again my intention is not to criticize this guy - but #2 (Tesla is structurally unprofitable) and #5 (Tesla is always late) come to mind as I type right now. Galileo says Chanos is wrong about profitability because that's just how analyst projections work - everything is always great 2 years from now but as you get closer the goalposts move. That would be an awful response on a widely watched debate, especially when there is a viable better response. And Galileo's response to Tesla always being late is that 2020 and 2021 literally haven't got here yet so you can't say Semi & Roadster 2.0 are late. What? That won't go over well either. Acknowledge that "Tesla time" does exist, that Tesla has been late but always does what they say they will. Say that Model 3 was at one point a 2020 project that got pulled forward. Say that future programs are being designed with ease of manufacturing in mind. Just cite the truth as Elon has presented it to us.

Question Chanos as Jesse recently did in terms of past behavior and why shorting spikes after dips and not after run ups. There are valid ways to project very strong in a debate against Chanos. But I think if influential members of TMC use their resources to get a debate then it should be when we are ready to put our best foot forward. Again, this is not a post against Galileo, great spirit, good intentions. But we might only get one shot at a CNBC-type debate.

 

[ZsoZso]

Tesla does not cut off data entirely or charge for Tesla's internal usage. Rather the feature set, and by extension amount of data, is limited without the premium plan.

Standard (free) data includes maps (not sat view), navigation, and safety related software updates.
Does not include real time traffic info (but that is used for nav), streaming audio, or functional updates (need wi-fi).

Tesla is introducing new paid ‘premium connectivity’ package to support in-car internet features of growing fleet

Thanks for the link, that clears it up for me. I thought they would charge per MB data use or something like that. But it looks like a simple 1 fixed price package to enable usage of premium features, presumably with unlimited data usage in that case. While Tesla can use the data connection even for the basic standard mode when the customer does not opt in for the extra features.

 

[sundaymorning]

I think we need to be careful what we wish for with this. I like this guy Galileo's spirit and I think it was nice of Elon to take his questions on the last earnings call. But that ended up being a win for Galileo in large part because Elon was "using/employing" (can't quite find the right word here, I do not mean USING him in a negative way) him as a way to redirect how that call was going. Those weren't the greatest questions, and if some other analyst asked them they might have been treated quite differently. Elon had the benefit of knowing that this guy is a Tesla supporter and there was no uncertainty about whether he was asking questions that would elicit answers he could twist the next day in a report bashing Tesla.

This video debunking Chanos is again made with good intentions. But some of the rebuttals to those 8 points are just "I disagree" without much substance. I'm not going to re-watch it to find every example - and again my intention is not to criticize this guy - but #2 (Tesla is structurally unprofitable) and #5 (Tesla is always late) come to mind as I type right now. Galileo says Chanos is wrong about profitability because that's just how analyst projections work - everything is always great 2 years from now but as you get closer the goalposts move. That would be an awful response on a widely watched debate, especially when there is a viable better response. And Galileo's response to Tesla always being late is that 2020 and 2021 literally haven't got here yet so you can't say Semi & Roadster 2.0 are late. What? That won't go over well either. Acknowledge that "Tesla time" does exist, that Tesla has been late but always does what they say they will. Say that Model 3 was at one point a 2020 project that got pulled forward. Say that future programs are being designed with ease of manufacturing in mind. Just cite the truth as Elon has presented it to us.

Question Chanos as Jesse recently did in terms of past behavior and why shorting spikes after dips and not after run ups. There are valid ways to project very strong in a debate against Chanos. But I think if influential members of TMC use their resources to get a debate then it should be when we are ready to put our best foot forward. Again, this is not a post against Galileo, great spirit, good intentions. But we might only get one shot at a CNBC-type debate.

I agree with your post 50% and the other 50% goes to AIMc/Gali. Gali will need a team comprising of DaveT, Jesse and Curt to inform/coach and keep him up to date, then I think Gali might have a chance. In order to win he’ll need to have a tremendous amount of preparation. What I worry about isn’t so much the facts that both sides will deliver, but that CNBC will rig the outcome by siding with Chanos (as they usually do when they invite him on the show). The media will cream Gali and side with Chanos the day after, no matter who wins or lose, the media will control the conversation afterwards. For this debate to be fair, it cannot be film on CNBC.

Where Chanos will likely succeed is his ability to control the conversation/debate, taking up valuable air time and only letting Gali speak for seconds per minute allotted. This is where experience will likely trump Gali and the person who can control the conversation will be the winner instead of the one to be more factually correct.

I’ve watched the Gali video, and can say I agree with his assessment up to 80%, he has already won in refuting against Chanos.

 

[davecolene0606]

Does the recent spooling tweet regarding GF mean that we are going to see a big/huge uptick in power wall sales?

If it helps, I ordered at the PW1 launch event...

And all of a sudden:

“
Your Powerwall installation is on Friday, July 27, 2018.

Your installation is officially on the books. Our technicians will install your Powerwall on Friday, July 27, 2018.

Please note that your power will be intermittent during installation. Turn off any sensitive electronics in advance. ”

And that’s not in Cali or Australia, How bout that!

Fire Away!

 

[Boomer19]

I agree with your post 50% and the other 50% goes to AIMc/Gali. Gali will need a team comprising of DaveT, Jesse and Curt to inform/coach and keep him up to date, then I think Gali might have a chance. In order to win he’ll need to have a tremendous amount of preparation. What I worry about isn’t so much the facts that both sides will deliver, but that CNBC will rig the outcome by siding with Chanos (as they usually do when they invite him on the show). The media will cream Gali and side with Chanos the day after, no matter who wins or lose, the media will control the conversation afterwards. For this debate to be fair, it cannot be film on CNBC.

Where Chanos will likely succeed is his ability to control the conversation/debate, taking up valuable air time and only letting Gali speak for seconds per minute allotted. This is where experience will likely trump Gali and the person who can control the conversation will be the winner instead of the one to be more factually correct.

I’ve watched the Gali video, and can say I agree with his assessment up to 80%, he has already won in refuting against Chanos.

sorry for repeat post, but still can’t stress enough how if this would ever happen on any MS media, regardless if chanos gets schooled or not, they’re got to cut it up and misconstrue it to make the “youtube guy” look silly...even if he’s not.
just don’t think it’s best plan, especially now. we’d never see the full cut anyway, only the news copy. its possible we’d be shooting ourselves in the foot, but well see what comes up in the next 2-3 weeks with EMs plan for the shorts, plus where this lawsuit leads.

 

[dc_h]

I think we need to be careful what we wish for with this. I like this guy Galileo's spirit and I think it was nice of Elon to take his questions on the last earnings call. But that ended up being a win for Galileo in large part because Elon was "using/employing" (can't quite find the right word here, I do not mean USING him in a negative way) him as a way to redirect how that call was going. Those weren't the greatest questions, and if some other analyst asked them they might have been treated quite differently. Elon had the benefit of knowing that this guy is a Tesla supporter and there was no uncertainty about whether he was asking questions that would elicit answers he could twist the next day in a report bashing Tesla.

This video debunking Chanos is again made with good intentions. But some of the rebuttals to those 8 points are just "I disagree" without much substance. I'm not going to re-watch it to find every example - and again my intention is not to criticize this guy - but #2 (Tesla is structurally unprofitable) and #5 (Tesla is always late) come to mind as I type right now. Galileo says Chanos is wrong about profitability because that's just how analyst projections work - everything is always great 2 years from now but as you get closer the goalposts move. That would be an awful response on a widely watched debate, especially when there is a viable better response. And Galileo's response to Tesla always being late is that 2020 and 2021 literally haven't got here yet so you can't say Semi & Roadster 2.0 are late. What? That won't go over well either. Acknowledge that "Tesla time" does exist, that Tesla has been late but always does what they say they will. Say that Model 3 was at one point a 2020 project that got pulled forward. Say that future programs are being designed with ease of manufacturing in mind. Just cite the truth as Elon has presented it to us.

Question Chanos as Jesse recently did in terms of past behavior and why shorting spikes after dips and not after run ups. There are valid ways to project very strong in a debate against Chanos. But I think if influential members of TMC use their resources to get a debate then it should be when we are ready to put our best foot forward. Again, this is not a post against Galileo, great spirit, good intentions. But we might only get one shot at a CNBC-type debate.

I think if it got to a public CNBC debate a group source debate practice would be smart. Lot of great experts and legal experts with good debate skills. If Chanos were to acept(doubtful) he would be prepped by his team.

 

[Ulmo]

I went by Fremont today. Factory personnel parking had normal weekend factory running parking load. South overflow product parking had fewer cars than other times I’ve visited. There were more Model S & X ratio to Model 3 than in times past. I went to see the tent: amazing: last time I went back there a month or so ago, it wasn’t there at all. It’s big. I couldn’t get close enough to observe anything unexpectedly revealing.

I went by Fremont Delivery Center, and that’s where things got more interesting: there are NO new Model 3’s waiting for delivery or being delivered there. Only three old Model 3’s are parked in back from months ago, whereas they usually had dozens waiting. It’s all Model S & Model X being sold right now. This is in stark contrast to months past when they were full up with Model 3’s or at least a standard mixture of S3X.

Conjecture: That tells me they’re making lots of Model 3’s but shipping them out of Fremont quickly. We already saw the lot with ~2^10 Model 3’s in Point Richmond. We know Canada is receiving lots of deliveries now. Come July 1, we should see the domestic floodgates open. We will all wonder when the dual motor and low range variants will release and ramp up, and performance variant as well.

Super conjecture: I’m shooting in the dark with everything in this paragraph; expect none of it to be true, but it could stimulate some thought. I noticed the new tent is approximately over the old rail loading bed. That makes it a decent place to secure machines to rail-bed-hardened foundations, or to build a new rail loading station (the old one was torn up). Also, permitting on old railroad areas may be totally different than in other areas, which may account for the speed of installation. Some of the rail loading infrastructure could have made useful factory machine pits.

 

[dmckinstry]

Where Chanos will likely succeed is his ability to control the conversation/debate, taking up valuable air time and only letting Gali speak for seconds per minute allotted. This is where experience will likely trump Gali and the person who can control the conversation will be the winner instead of the one to be more factually correct.

If it's to be considered a debate then debate rules should be enforced. Timekeeper, etc..

 

[sundaymorning]

I went by Fremont today. Factory personnel parking had normal weekend factory running parking load. South overflow product parking had fewer cars than other times I’ve visited. There were more Model S & X ratio to Model 3 than in times past. I went to see the tent: amazing: last time I went back there a month or so ago, it wasn’t there at all. It’s big. I couldn’t get close enough to observe anything unexpectedly revealing.

I went by Fremont Delivery Center, and that’s where things got more interesting: there are NO new Model 3’s waiting for delivery or being delivered there. Only three old Model 3’s are parked in back from months ago, whereas they usually had dozens waiting. It’s all Model S & Model X being sold right now. This is in stark contrast to months past when they were full up with Model 3’s or at least a standard mixture of S3X.

Conjecture: That tells me they’re making lots of Model 3’s but shipping them out of Fremont quickly. We already saw the lot with ~2^10 Model 3’s in Point Richmond. We know Canada is receiving lots of deliveries now. Come July 1, we should see the domestic floodgates open. We will all wonder when the dual motor and low range variants will release and ramp up, and performance variant as well.

Super conjecture: I’m shooting in the dark with everything in this paragraph; expect none of it to be true, but it could stimulate some thought. I noticed the new tent is approximately over the old rail loading bed. That makes it a decent place to secure machines to rail-bed-hardened foundations, or to build a new rail loading station (the old one was torn up). Also, permitting on old railroad areas may be totally different than in other areas, which may account for the speed of installation. Some of the rail loading infrastructure could have made useful factory machine pits.

Thanks for the update, I would have to disagree on Model 3 production. Right now customer reports of VIN are low compared to May and April, if they are in fact pumping M3s at above 3.5k/week I would expect all parking lots to be filled. Besides the 800-1k M3 on a holding lot reported last Friday, I have seen virtually zero evidence of a ramp above 3.5k. Although I remain hopeful they can pull it through, it’s not looking good at the moment, we still have 8 more days to go, but things need to luck up, those lots need to be filled or else we’re in for at least a 10% miss. Last quarter’s miss was 20%, a similar miss this quarter puts us in 4k/week.

 

[Zaxxon]

Weekend tangential funny: the Semi has an actual Mad Max mode.

Elon Musk on Twitter

 

[mongo]

Super conjecture: I’m shooting in the dark with everything in this paragraph; expect none of it to be true, but it could stimulate some thought. I noticed the new tent is approximately over the old rail loading bed. That makes it a decent place to secure machines to rail-bed-hardened foundations, or to build a new rail loading station (the old one was torn up). Also, permitting on old railroad areas may be totally different than in other areas, which may account for the speed of installation. Some of the rail loading infrastructure could have made useful factory machine pits.

Thanks for site report!

The tent is north of old rail spurs and located on parking lot. They added a concrete slab on top for leveling and bolting to.
Compare daily satellite images of Tesla production locations

 

[skitown]

Weekend tangential funny: the Semi has an actual Mad Max mode.

View attachment 312239

Elon Musk on Twitter

Pretty sure this is an S or X screen in development mode for EAP and/or FSD. Semi screens are horizontal like the Model 3, while this appears vertical like S and X.

 

[EinSV]

Pretty sure this is an S or X screen in development mode for EAP and/or FSD. Semi screens are horizontal like the Model 3, while this appears vertical like S and X.

Agree this is dev mode, probably for v9. “Vision Stops” could be red lights and/or stop signs, so maybe EAP with some FSD features.

 

[Ulmo]

Thanks for site report!

The tent is north of old rail spurs and located on parking lot. They added a concrete slab on top for leveling and bolting to.
Compare daily satellite images of Tesla production locations

Indeed, thank you, and perfect. Yes, the concrete slab for leveling and bolting makes perfect sense, and is way more sensible than what I said. And your link clearly shows the tent is North of the old spurs. For whatever reason, loading rail right there doesn't seem to be something Tesla wants to do, but I always like options. (The way I see it, if I were Tesla, I'd have that entire rail yard full of rail cars with Teslas in them.)

Tent put up between May 28, 2018 and June 10, 2018. Compare daily satellite images of Tesla production locations

 

[TSLAopt]

If it helps, I ordered at the PW1 launch event...

And all of a sudden:

“
Your Powerwall installation is on Friday, July 27, 2018.

Your installation is officially on the books. Our technicians will install your Powerwall on Friday, July 27, 2018.

Please note that your power will be intermittent during installation. Turn off any sensitive electronics in advance. ”

And that’s not in Cali or Australia, How bout that!

Fire Away![/Q

On this note...I ordered a solar roof and 2 power wall’s on day 2 after the solar roof reveal. I got a call on a Wednesday saying they’re ready to come survey my house and get my solar roof and powerwalls installed as soon as August and no later than. November depending how quickly o get my paperwork in order vs the other hundreds of people they are calling now for this

 

[geneclean55]

John Totah on Twitter

 

[Zaxxon]

Pretty sure this is an S or X screen in development mode for EAP and/or FSD. Semi screens are horizontal like the Model 3, while this appears vertical like S and X.

I mean sure, it's possible Elon Musk is confused.

Which is not to say that this couldn't be in dev for all Tesla models. But he presented it in the context of the semi.

 

[skitown]

I mean sure, it's possible Elon Musk is confused.

Which is not to say that this couldn't be in dev for all Tesla models. But he presented it in the context of the semi.

Agreed. I would guess that it will be topical to all vehicles. But that is a vertical screen damnit! LOL.

 

[Zaxxon]

Agreed. I would guess that it will be topical to all vehicles. But that is a vertical screen damnit! LOL.

The semi screens are horizontal, yes. But the outer third-ish of each screen seems to permanently hold the side mirror replacement camera view. The 'interface' portion, for lack of a better term, is somewhere around 4:3 aspect ratio.

The image Musk shared doesn't look like it fits the UI of the animated version of the shot I included above, where interface menus pop up over the map (vs under it as in the Musk shot). But who knows.

My money would be on the feature being developed for the semi as well as EAP/FSD on the other vehicles. As Musk mentioned in follow-up tweets tonight, self-driving cars will need some form of aggressive setting in order to not simply yield endlessly in 'difficult' conditions (eg LA rush hour traffic).

 

[sundaymorning]

John Totah on Twitter

View attachment 312259

If his tweet is to be valid then this is the 1st of 4 bottlenecks solved. The other 3 are in Fremont, GA3 and 4 needs work, also paint shop as well. The individual who tweeted seems to be a worker from the GF, so don’t mistaken that for full production of 5k cars produced, see pic below as he comfirms GF.

Also can anyone with a computer background help define what “throughput” means?