General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[avoigt]

Berenbank visited the GF and keeps the target at $500

"He has now more clarity how they dealt with the bottlenecks. His confidence has grown..."

Berenberg belässt Tesla auf 'Buy' - Ziel 500 US-Dollar

Here are some more interesting details about Berenberg Bank visiting the GF:

"Among the key improvements made to the already industry-leading thermal management system in the Model S/X are the new aluminum cooling radiators that surround each individual cell in the Model 3 pack," Alexander Haissl, an analyst at the firm, told clients in a note he wrote Wednesday after taking a tour of Tesla's so-called Gigafactory.


"This technology, which helps to minimise battery degradation and reduce charging times, is a remarkable piece of system engineering that has been largely completely overlooked as a key competitive advantage for Tesla compared to other OEMs offering more primitive solutions."

Haissl, a long-time Tesla bull, has one of the highest price targets on Wall Street at $500. That's 30% above where shares were trading Thursday morning, and well above the $314 consensus, according to Bloomberg. He's not worried about ongoing "production hell" and says the battery issues are easily rectified by hand.

"To Tesla's benefit, this zone is relatively easier to convert into a manual process due to limited human hazards," he said. "With higher output currently possible simply by increasing headcount, zone two is no longer a volume-limiting step in the assembly process."

Tesla has a 'remarkable' battery technology that one analyst says has been ignored by Wall Street

 

[avoigt]

BMW CEO Krüger confirmed agreement with CATL to build a GF likely in Thüringen. Its an order volume in the billions.

"Wir haben gerade einen Milliardenauftrag an den chinesischen Batterieproduzenten CATL vergeben", sagte Vorstandschef Harald Krüger dem "Handelsblatt" (Freitag). (...)

Translated: "We just gave a billion order to the Chinese's Battery manufacturer CATL."

Finally, have been waiting for this since years....

Battery cells for the iNext to be release in 2021 will be produced there.

They announced simultaneously to double production for the X3 and X4.... so one step ahead and one back. A full commitment to EVs does look different to me. In all news everybody except Berenberg talks about Asian manufacturers are leading the technology with the largest production facilities.

BMW ordert Elektroauto-Batterien bei chinesischem Hersteller CATL für Milliarden

 

[hiroshiy]

BMW CEO Krüger confirmed agreement with CATL to build a GF likely in Thüringen. Its an order volume in the billions.

"Wir haben gerade einen Milliardenauftrag an den chinesischen Batterieproduzenten CATL vergeben", sagte Vorstandschef Harald Krüger dem "Handelsblatt" (Freitag). (...)

Translated: "We just gave a billion order to the Chinese's Battery manufacturer CATL."

Finally, have been waiting for this since years....

Battery cells for the iNext to be release in 2021 will be produced there.

They announced simultaneously to double production for the X3 and X4.... so one step ahead and one back. A full commitment to EVs does look different to me. In all news everybody except Berenberg talks about Asian manufacturers are leading the technology with the largest production facilities.

BMW ordert Elektroauto-Batterien bei chinesischem Hersteller CATL für Milliarden

Is that a billion or several billions? In the English article of Handelablatt it says several billions.
BMW places massive battery order with Chinese producer CATL

 

[saniflash]

Is that a billion or several billions?

>1bn

 

[Mich]

Is that a billion or several billions? In the English article of Handelablatt it says several billions.
BMW places massive battery order with Chinese producer CATL

Plural. At least mote than one billion.

 

[Yggdrasill]

One billion Euros is something like ~150,000 EVs with 75 kWh packs. The order should be bigger than 1 billion to have a meanigful impact.

 

[mrdoubleb]

Is that a billion or several billions? In the English article of Handelablatt it says several billions.
BMW places massive battery order with Chinese producer CATL

One billion Euros is something like ~150,000 EVs with 75 kWh packs. The order should be bigger than 1 billion to have a meanigful impact.

BMW sells like ~2.5 million cars annually. 150k is like 6% of their annual sales. Color me not impressed.

 

[RobStark]

EV Sales: Global Top 10 May 2018

 

[avoigt]

BMW sells like ~2.5 million cars annually. 150k is like 6% of their annual sales. Color me not impressed.

Thats true but its the first really fully dedicated Battery production for EVs in Germany and that is good news.

Working on ICEs all the time its still hard for BMW to understand the covered high EV demand out there. As of now the German adoption to EVs is falling far behind countries like Netherland Norway and others.

Once they realize what is happening they may have an option now to accelerate and move faster.

Also Billions is by purpose not specified to a concrete number asking me. They don't know yet I believe.

Understanding and forecasting demand for EVs is quite a challenge and not to compare with forecasting demand with ICEs.

 

[JoaoD]

Understanding and forecasting demand for EVs is quite a challenge and not to compare with forecasting demand with ICEs.

I would argue the contrary, at least for Tesla. Every EV you make, you sell.

 

[Bobfitz1]

When the tis me comes, I am going to ask my delivery center to NOT Prep the paint in any way. I plan on taking it straight to get a PPF and ceramic coating. They will do all the paint correction there. I have seen examples of quick washes at delivery centers that actually caused more paint issues. Dan

Dan, with many on TMC now ordering, do you mind posting a link or two to information about PPF and ceramic coating?
Thanks!

 

[mrdoubleb]

Thats true but its the first really fully dedicated Battery production for EVs in Germany and that is good news.

Working on ICEs all the time its still hard for BMW to understand the covered high EV demand out there. As of now the German adoption to EVs is falling far behind countries like Netherland Norway and others.

Once they realize what is happening they may have an option now to accelerate and move faster.

Also Billions is by purpose not specified to a concrete number asking me. They don't know yet I believe.

Understanding and forecasting demand for EVs is quite a challenge and not to compare with forecasting demand with ICEs.

Yes, that's a fair point. Every bit helps and I think if they start putting out compelling EVs and see sales limited by production, that should be good ammo for the pro-EV staff at companies like BMW to push for more significant investments.

 

[ZsoZso]

BMW CEO Krüger confirmed agreement with CATL to build a GF likely in Thüringen. Its an order volume in the billions.

"Wir haben gerade einen Milliardenauftrag an den chinesischen Batterieproduzenten CATL vergeben", sagte Vorstandschef Harald Krüger dem "Handelsblatt" (Freitag). (...)

Translated: "We just gave a billion order to the Chinese's Battery manufacturer CATL."

Finally, have been waiting for this since years....

Battery cells for the iNext to be release in 2021 will be produced there.

They announced simultaneously to double production for the X3 and X4.... so one step ahead and one back. A full commitment to EVs does look different to me. In all news everybody except Berenberg talks about Asian manufacturers are leading the technology with the largest production facilities.

BMW ordert Elektroauto-Batterien bei chinesischem Hersteller CATL für Milliarden

Tesla first announced the Gigafactory plans in 2013, signed the joint development agreement with Panasonic in July 2014.
So depending on which event you consider the equivalent to the above, BMW is 4-5 years behind Tesla. That's the size of the moat confirmed as we suspected. In the meantime, VW still only have deals to BUY the batteries from 3rd party which locks them into disadvantage in terms of price and lack of control of development and implementation of advancements in battery technology.

 

[avoigt]

I would argue the contrary, at least for Tesla. Every EV you make, you sell.

That is not forecasting....

Tesla did not well on that front as well. When they have seen the reservations for the 3 they had to replan everything to come up with a solution.

If you do not have good and comprehensive data from the past its really difficult rather impossible to come up with a demand calculation that works. Its like shooting in the dark.

So, its tough for everybody right now.

 

[Earlian]

Elon’s tweet broke at 1:30 PM. Seems like he’s responding to the Reuters article with cryptic messages. Does anyone speak Elon?

[QUO

EV Sales: Global Top 10 May 2018[/QUOTE]

This List will soon be led by tesla and they're gonna be isolated at the top for years....

 

[lklundin]

I would argue the contrary, at least for Tesla. Every EV you make, you sell.

Agreed. However, for every EV that BMW et al sell they may very well lose an ICE sell, so their investment in EV production is much harder to justify...

 

[justvisiting]

BMW sells like ~2.5 million cars annually. 150k is like 6% of their annual sales. Color me not impressed.

first of all, it is at least MORE than 1b, as i understand it it is SEVERAL billion dollars. If we say its only 2 billion, that would be 300k by your calculation. That is three times as much as Tesla produced last year. And dont come with 500k M3 per year, plans are one thing, and as you can see reality is a totally different thing with tesla.

 

[DragonWatch]

I would argue the contrary, at least for Tesla. Every EV you make, you sell.

You are quite correct!

For those that believe with their very fiber that the world is flat: it is difficult for them to grasp the concept that I can actually receive a tan in the sun on the bottom side of their flat earth. Bottom line, you must have foresight, and gamble your life’s savings to figure this one out.

I find it interesting how the Germans had the foresight to place solar panels on their roofs starting in the mid-nineties, but are slow on the up tic of EVs. Maybe the fossil fuel industry has its grip tighter on the Germans than they will admit. When top executives are willing to lose their status in life by lying about emissions, you have to wonder ~ at least I do. You can correct me if I am wrong, but when it comes to walking, talking, and smelling like a duck, maybe it is a duck.

The Germans did not display this kind of resistance when it came to flight, tanks or fossil fuel cars (VW beetle).

 

[Lhan]

This news broke at 1 PM



Elon’s tweet broke at 1:30 PM. Seems like he’s responding to the Reuters article with cryptic messages. Does anyone speak Elon?

Elon paint shop picture = "Don't panic" we are golden.

 

[Bobfitz1]

Tesla first announced the Gigafactory plans in 2013, signed the joint development agreement with Panasonic in July 2014. So depending on which event you consider the equivalent to the above, BMW is 4-5 years behind Tesla. That's the size of the moat confirmed as we suspected. In the meantime, VW still only have deals to BUY the batteries from 3rd party which locks them into disadvantage in terms of price and lack of control of development and implementation of advancements in battery technology.

I believe your reasoning is very sound. The moat may be even greater because no company or partnership just getting started on a GF has the combination of Panasonic's battery manufacturing expertise and Tesla's ability to innovate rapidly to solve the many problems which can't be foreseen going into something so big. CATL is no Panasonic and BMW is no Tesla. The experience and knowledge gained by Tesla over the past 4 years will likely allow them to complete the China and Euro GFs in less time than GF1. By the time a BMW/CATL Gigafactory is producing it's first 5 GWh of battery production, I suspect Tesla's next two will be pumping out 35 GWh, on their way to 105 GWh or more when complete.