Technically there are 3 wheels. Though for any given configuration you can only choose from two of the three.
-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
- Status
Technically there are 3 wheels. Though for any given configuration you can only choose from two of the three.
Understanding lithium supply is critical to Tesla's ramping plans obviously creates concern about the issue. This then drives planning, seeking out contracts with current and upcoming suppliers, etc. Not sure what definition of concern you are using to imagine having a reasonable amount of concern about Li supply somehow shows you believe the company isn't doing it's best to ensure it will have enough Li for it's needs.
Btw, recognize that if all the major ICE manufacturers had planned several years ago to produce millions of EVs in the next few years, world Li supply would not be able to meet that demand for a number of years. Tesla and China ramping up EV production now is going to keep battery grade lithium prices high and possibly drive them even higher. That will over a number of years provide great incentives to companies developing new lithium mines as well as technologies to extract Li more efficiently. This market response then will allow continued fast growth of EV production as ICE to EV transition occurs over the next 15 years.
No I didn't, I specifically said battery cell supply chain in my previous post. I was wondering about how Tesla is planning to achieve the prerequisites of production, as I assumed that they will be able to manufacture. I'm trying to find out more information about this. There was an earlier post that linked to some articles to Tesla deals with lithium mines. That's the information that I'm looking for. Now I consider my concern half resolved. Only half because I want to see further deals made to solidify their prerequisites to their huge growth that I see that will happen on the manufacturing side.
I see. Sorry for mischaracterizing your post.
As an aside, I think you're going to spin your wheels on this. 2-3 years out with no direct line to Tesla management, means you'll be fretting about potential shortcomings up until it's publicly announced. Additionally, you should really look at Panasonic's suppliers, as they are the ones getting the raw materials for Panasonic to build the cells. But even that is an exercise in futility due to how much things change in the lead time you're looking at.
Problem is the non-exact talk only manages to spread FUD.
Ramping plans are what exactly? 5%, 10%, 25%, 50%, 100%?
In what time-frame exactly? In a month, In a year, In a decade?
What growth can "currently known supplies" support? 10% 20%? 50%?
One can easily pose unrealistic vague growth targets and then preach how there is not enough supplies and therefore Tesla is doomed. It is happening already, even on this board.
I'd rather see hard numerical data on how much supplies there is or can be at some price-point and what growth rate it can support. Understanding lies in numbers - if you cannot compute it, you do no understand it.
Is there enough raw material supplies to enable 25% annual growth rate for next 10 years?
Or how many years of 10% growth is it good for?
How high is the ceiling exactly? Answer in GWh or keep quiet.
Wooloomooloo
Member
MS still think a $2.5bn capital raise will be necessary in Q4 (reduced from initial forecast of $3bn)
Tesla Will Need to Raise $2.5 Billion in Capital Despite What Elon Musk Says
Tesla Will Need to Raise $2.5 Billion in Capital Despite What Elon Musk Says
That's totally cool man! No harm done.
I agree that I'll be spinning my wheels on this. I believe Tesla needed to secure these deals early. This is not only for capacity, but also to secure good pricing. Even if there is enough supply, what do you think will happen when becomes obvious EV's are taking off and everyone is trying to secure the raw materials? The prices will go way up, as we've seen with cobalt already. Tesla and China will be by far the biggest drivers in demand, and I think the cumulative Chinese carmakers will represent a greater demand than Tesla. China will definitely be self serving to the Chinese carmakers first in what I think will soon be a rush for key raw materials. Therefore, Tesla needs a lot of this in place early on.
If car manufacturing is like software development, then there will be no concerns. But building actual things is hard, and unfortunately the market doesn't see how crazy impressive it is for a hardware company to achieve this kind of growth, and it isn't something like a phone where it would be relatively trivial to scale production way up if absolute cost control isn't crucial.
Benzinga from CNBC - this morning: End Of The FANG Era? Gene Munster Makes The Case (FB)AMZN)(NFLX)(GOOGL)
The era of FANG may come to an end over the next year and the tech sector will be split into "haves" and "have-nots," Munster said. The haves will include Amazon, Apple, Alphabet, and Tesla Inc will "enter that mix," as the electric auto maker's recent earnings rep;ort signals it can be profitable and won't need to raise cash, he said.
The era of FANG may come to an end over the next year and the tech sector will be split into "haves" and "have-nots," Munster said. The haves will include Amazon, Apple, Alphabet, and Tesla Inc will "enter that mix," as the electric auto maker's recent earnings rep;ort signals it can be profitable and won't need to raise cash, he said.
Well I mean we know they plan to raise money...
... For the Shanghai GF
... From Chinese banks
Sorry Wall Street Wolves, you're gonna be SOL here!
Wooloomooloo
Member
Most of your questions can easily be answered if you did a modest amount of research. Joe Lowry is one of the world's top experts on the lithium supply chain. He and others have refuted Morgan Stanley's assertion that Li prices will soon fall from their current historic highs because supply will ramp faster than demand.
“We said a few years ago that the present lithium price run will continue, and it has. It has, and it’s gone into a second phase now,” Benchmark Mineral Intelligence Managing Director Simon Moores told the Investing News Network at this year’s Cathodes conference.
“Quite simply, there’s not enough supply to meet the demand, and the demand is increasing quicker than the supply is. Much, much quicker. Therefore, lithium’s price will remain strong for some time,” he added.
For his part, lithium expert Joe Lowry said in his Lithium in Review report that “2017 was a year when virtually all the positive surprises were on the demand side and most of the negative surprises were on the supply side.”
Projections of EV ramp over 5 years, associated Li demand arising from that and the ramping of Li supply are all based on current data, assumptions and the knowledge of the analyst(s). Morgan Stanley both underestimates demand and overestimates ramping rate of supply.
Sadly, unrealistic analysis of the short term supply and demand has depressed the stock prices of many major and minor Li mining companies, undercutting their ability to attract the capital investment vitally needed for them to develop new supply sources.
Until you do some research on these topics you should be more circumspect about throwing around claims that reasonable concerts are just FUD.
So .. how many GWh?
Please, do not hide behind a wall of text.
Just a simple number of how many GWh is possible.
Please, do not hide behind a wall of text.
Just a simple number of how many GWh is possible.
Mario Kadastik
Active Member
Yuri_G
Member
He realizes the magnitude of the tweet. Sucks for us small time investors that wanted a piece of the company in this rapid growth phase.
Ulmo
Active Member
Good morning. Today is finally going more like I expected.
Saudi Arabia is already planning on building 200GW of solar by 2030; as a directional view, that shows they will have electricity available for vehicles. They want to build new industries to invest their old energy earnings into new future businesses, including modernizing their energy economy. KSA is also modernizing their civilization from top to bottom, entering more people into the Age of Enlightenment. This would be a great fit for Tesla and Saudi Arabia, if done with the respective parties’ sensible negotiations.
Pair that with Tesla growing into the same field.
I’ve been saying it for a long time because it makes sense. I encourage Elon & Tesla to consider that direction. Now that Elon has shown discipline to make profitable products, having a future shift would allow everyone to improve with more efficiency.
I look forward to any potential improvements these negotiations bring.
As a stockholder, $420 is better than what I have now, and I approve!
P.S., Considering how the news will react reminds me of the same bear thesis on $TSLA: Don’t believe any of the lies saying awful stuff about what KSA is doing; very nearly all of it is bunk. I’ve been following independent analysts that have shown KSA to be directionally more moral than almost any other modern country, and already more moral than others in their various national and regional security handing.
Saudi Arabia is already planning on building 200GW of solar by 2030; as a directional view, that shows they will have electricity available for vehicles. They want to build new industries to invest their old energy earnings into new future businesses, including modernizing their energy economy. KSA is also modernizing their civilization from top to bottom, entering more people into the Age of Enlightenment. This would be a great fit for Tesla and Saudi Arabia, if done with the respective parties’ sensible negotiations.
Pair that with Tesla growing into the same field.
I’ve been saying it for a long time because it makes sense. I encourage Elon & Tesla to consider that direction. Now that Elon has shown discipline to make profitable products, having a future shift would allow everyone to improve with more efficiency.
I look forward to any potential improvements these negotiations bring.
As a stockholder, $420 is better than what I have now, and I approve!
P.S., Considering how the news will react reminds me of the same bear thesis on $TSLA: Don’t believe any of the lies saying awful stuff about what KSA is doing; very nearly all of it is bunk. I’ve been following independent analysts that have shown KSA to be directionally more moral than almost any other modern country, and already more moral than others in their various national and regional security handing.
Last edited:
Just do your own research and share the links/sources here. That would be a worthwhile contribution
to the forum.
Funding secured...?
Possible investors; ?
Tencent, Alphabet (Google) , DFJ, Founders Fund, Fidelity Investments, Capricorn Venture Partners, Valore Equity. Oakhouse Partners, Bracket Capital.
Except for Tencent, they are all some of the investors in SpaceX
SpaceX - Funding Rounds | Crunchbase
Tencent currently has 5% stake
Possible investors; ?
Tencent, Alphabet (Google) , DFJ, Founders Fund, Fidelity Investments, Capricorn Venture Partners, Valore Equity. Oakhouse Partners, Bracket Capital.
Except for Tencent, they are all some of the investors in SpaceX
SpaceX - Funding Rounds | Crunchbase
Tencent currently has 5% stake
- Status
Similar threads
- Locked
- Article
