General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Remus]

Unfortunately, I'm afraid that today's wave of lies, aka FUD, is really just the beginning. There is a finite amount of time to maximize the damage to Tesla/Musk before the stock goes (hopefully) private. Everything including the proverbial kitchen sink is going to be thrown at the company until then.

As a Long, I'm going to keep shaking loose dry powder and purchase additional shares at a discount.
(Not an Advice)



Here's my FUD prediction: (more realistic the the BS I've seen lately from the "news")

The "military grade" question during the Q2 call will be the basis for the (paid for by Petro dollars) Congressional hearing to determine if Musk is exporting advanced technology in violation of federal law.

and/or

If by becoming private Tesla will allow foreign investors access to advanced technology.

Exports of Tesla vehicles will be halted and/or Tesla will be prohibited from going private until the inquiry is complete.

Doubt it. Zuckerburg went in front of Congress for their colossal screw up nothing happened to FB.

 

[Krugerrand]

I’ve worried about this day for a while. Frankly I’ve worried Elon might kick the bucket if he keeps at this pace. He needs to put on the brakes and rest for a while. I hope he finds a way to do that while his companies find more senior management to take on some of the burden.

Prediction: Before this month is out, Tesla board will announce Elon’s taking a leave of absense for a while due to exhaustion.

Would also not be surprised if the board also says the Tesla-going-private plan is slowed down or even postponed.

(Please: If you disagree, fine, but please respond and say why rather than just knee-jerk click the thumbs-down icon. Cheers )

My disagrees are never knee-jerk clicks; I always click with my right thumb and always am really disagreeing with something, even if sometimes it’s just the text color you’ve chosen.

 

[RobStark]

We have gone form the media saying Tesla is cash burning dumpster fire that might not make it to 2019 without paying junk rates in a capital raise to Tesla is a jewel of American industry with key technology of the future and foreign investment in Tesla must be highly scrutinized. e.g.

How Trump could ruin Elon Musk's plan to take Tesla private

 

[Remus]

We have gone form the media saying Tesla is cash burning dumpster fire that might not make it to 2019 without paying junk rates in a capital raise to Tesla is a jewel of American industry with key technology of the future and foreign investment in Tesla must be highly scrutinized. e.g.

How Trump could ruin Elon Musk's plan to take Tesla private

FFS catapiliar produce fully autonomous mining trucks and they have no trouble exporting them.

Those trucks are just freaking scary.

 

[Duffer]

Doubt it. Zuckerburg went in front of Congress for their colossal screw up nothing happened to FB.

We have gone form the media saying Tesla is cash burning dumpster fire that might not make it to 2019 without paying junk rates in a capital raise to Tesla is a jewel of American industry with key technology of the future and foreign investment in Tesla must be highly scrutinized. e.g.

How Trump could ruin Elon Musk's plan to take Tesla private

Ok, I named the wrong branch of the government.

 

[schonelucht]

Maybe declined because in the souks everyone expects a sizable discount.

They bought on open market instead... Don’t see much of a discount needed to part them with their money.

 

[hobbes]

This might be a better forum for Elon than the NYT:
Marques Brownlee on Twitter

(Looks like MKBHD will have Elon, though he doesn´t say it explicitely)

Here we go! Nothing about privatization although this was taken last Wednesday. Nice chat and to me it seems while Elon looks tired, his mind doesn´t seem to be to judge from the conversation. Love Elon when he is relaxed like that, if only for the moment. Anyway, I think MKBHD should take Elon for a session of ultimate frisbee (just read MKBHD is a pro) to get him to relax a bit (could sell it as live 3D chess ).

 

[The Blue Owl]

It's the weekend again, so here is the book recommendation of the day: Thinking in Systems: A Primer. Trust me, it's very much on topic. If you don't have time to read it all (should only take 4-5 hours), just read chapter 6, which can also be freely read on this site dedicated to the author's work. It should be required reading not only for managers, politicians, and anyone else in a decision-making position, but for everybody who is impacted by those decisions (i.e., all of us).

Even though this was written long before the world had heard of Elon Musk, it is very much about Elon Musk. After reading it, you will have a much clear view of the way he sees the world and will understand much better why he operates in a way that seems incomprehensible to so many.

 

[Sean Wagner]

The video is a big breath of fresh air - not information, but "emanation" wise.

 

[aubreymcfato]

I think Tesla is definitely doing something related to marketing, especially towards younger generations, especially using Youtube:

• MKBHD and Elon (see above). MKBHD has 6.5 millions subscribers, and will publish another video of a tour at the Gigafactory
  
• JB Straubel on The Verge:

• Unbox Therapy and Model 3. Unbox Therapy has 12mil subs. Elon retweeted it yesterday.

Casey Neistat (10mil subs) also bought a Model X recently, and will do a review soon.

 

[RubberToe]

• Unbox Therapy and Model 3. Unbox Therapy has 12mil subs. Elon retweeted it yesterday.

That Unbox Therapy video is worth about $10,000,000 of advertising.

RT

 

[Reciprocity]

From the interview with the NYT



Genuine question here : what is Elon referring to when he says that short-seller's narrative can possibly result in Tesla's destruction? Just to be clear : this is not about mundane stuff like talking down the stock price for a few months or even years, we are talking about full blown bankruptcy ('destruction'), and he seems very earnest in this interview. It's not some off-hand April Fool's joke on Twitter. I honestly see no way how shorts could but Elon clearly has an infinitely deeper insight in the company and he is evidently worried about the short story. That means he sees a risk that I don't see. Shorts have been talking down Tesla build quality for years, demand has only grown : so it isn't that. Shorts have been trying to depress the stock for years, still keeps on rising and rewarding employees : so it isn't that. Shorts have been trying to shut Tesla out of the capital market but the company has raised with ease. And besides, there is no need to raise due to profitability/cash flow positivity : so it isn't that. US incentives are running out naturally for Tesla, and sales restrictions on Tesla are over time easing, not getting harder. Not that either. So my question remains. What risk are we missing that is so front and center on Elon's mind.

Through what mechanism can the short's narrative lead to Tesla's destruction?

He doesn't mean financial. He means the public losing confidence and turning their backs. Try this some time. Stop someone in the mall or at the super market and ask then what they think about Tesla and Elon. Do this ten times. I think you will be dumbfounded by what you will find. It's one reason I spend almost no time on TMC anymore and instead on Twitter where minds can still be educated on reality vs all the fud and lies. TMC is great and I learned a lot here, but it's a massive echo chamber and really a jail cell for smart people to keep them contained and their ideas locked away.

 

[Intl Professor]

It's the weekend again, so here is the book recommendation of the day: Thinking in Systems: A Primer. Trust me, it's very much on topic. If you don't have time to read it all (should only take 4-5 hours), just read chapter 6, which can also be freely read on this site dedicated to the author's work. It should be required reading not only for managers, politicians, and anyone else in a decision-making position, but for everybody who is impacted by those decisions (i.e., all of us).

Even though this was written long before the world had heard of Elon Musk, it is very much about Elon Musk. After reading it, you will have a much clear view of the way he sees the world and will understand much better why he operates in a way that seems incomprehensible to so many.

So applicable to these turbulent times. Thanks so much for this.

 

[Ovulation]

So applicable to these turbulent times. Thanks so much for this.

Correct me if I'm wrong but the author sounds alot like those Club of Rome post-growth pundits and I don't see a post-growth world as a solution. In a world were the cake get's smaller the outcome will be not be kumbaya back to nature, it will get very nasty. So as an antidote to those lines of thinking that infected large parts of the intellectual world in the west, I suggest that book

https://www.amazon.com/Proactionary...&qid=1534629923&sr=1-11&keywords=steve+fuller

The 'proactionary principle' was introduced by transhumanists. Whereas precautionaries believe that we are on the brink of environmental catastrophe because we're too willing to take risks, proactionaries believe that humans stand apart from the rest of nature by our capacity for successful risk taking. In terms of current environmental problems, therefore, solutions lie not in turning our backs on our love affair with technology but by intensifying it – through finding new energy sources or even looking at the possibility of inhabiting other worlds.

 

[RobStark]

Jack White Stages Free Concert for Tesla Employees at California Plant – Rolling Stone

“I believe that what Tesla is doing is so important for the future of how we look at car design itself,” rocker says

 

[BioSehnsucht]

Jack White Stages Free Concert for Tesla Employees at California Plant – Rolling Stone

“I believe that what Tesla is doing is so important for the future of how we look at car design itself,” rocker says

Interesting. I saw a tweet linked somewhere about them playing the other night, but I assumed this was arranged as a morale booster and paid for. Didn't expect it was free.

Article could have used some proofing though : "The concert was reportedly envisioned to lift the spirits of Tesla workers as they continue work on the new Tesla Model S after falling behind in the production schedule, the Detroit Free Press reports." The original blurb in the DFP accurately said Model 3.

 

[Skryll]

Back to market action. So it seems to me that more people had read the NYT hit piece, should we expect another 10 dollars down early next week?

As usually, a coin toss. Could rebound hard, because of good news that came out, but my banker friend was just repeating the gist of the NYT article without having read it to me when I met him today. I sent him a link to https://twitter.com/martinengwic…/status/1030854615812763648 which does a really good job at dissecting it and pointing out the deceiving methods used.

Maybe short term puts hedging is in order, and that I think so may already be a good indicator of a reversal.

 

[gluu]

I don't think anyone could have anticipated the battery module manufacturing snafu, where the supplier (still unnamed) simply didn't deliver.

Tesla only made one mistake at Fremont: they attempted to pack the production line too closely together.

Here's the thing: they've reduced the number of stations in final assembly to 1/3 or 1/4 of a typical assembly line. The production cost savings from that is *monumental*. They've automated multiple steps which nobody else automated (such as the "golden wheel") and they've done so successfully. Some of their attempts to automated didn't work, but they still ended up with a production line which was far better than the competition (and a bunch of wasted cost on the ones that didn't work out, but that's R&D for you).

The mistake was packing the production line too tightly together, because it made it too hard to swap out a station which wasn't working for a different station (non-automated or differently automated). It was a big mistake. Attempting to automate everything was *not* really a mistake.


Mmmm-hmmm.

Actually, in Elon’s interview with MKBHD, he discussed one of the items they failed to automate - having a robot connect two different cords together. He also discussed the failure of flufferbot as well in the past. In general, it seems that robots are not able to handle objects that deform or require fine motor control. I think this will be alleviated by AI advances in the next few years. My own personal suspicion is that Tesla will eventually become a major robotics company, as the two major elements required for advanced robots, batteries and AI, will become Tesla’s strengths. So Alien dreadnought free of humans will likely not occur until 2023.

 

[Intl Professor]

Correct me if I'm wrong but the author sounds alot like those Club of Rome post-growth pundits and I don't see a post-growth world as a solution. In a world were the cake get's smaller the outcome will be not be kumbaya back to nature, it will get very nasty. So as an antidote to those lines of thinking that infected large parts of the intellectual world in the west, I suggest that book

https://www.amazon.com/Proactionary...&qid=1534629923&sr=1-11&keywords=steve+fuller

The 'proactionary principle' was introduced by transhumanists. Whereas precautionaries believe that we are on the brink of environmental catastrophe because we're too willing to take risks, proactionaries believe that humans stand apart from the rest of nature by our capacity for successful risk taking. In terms of current environmental problems, therefore, solutions lie not in turning our backs on our love affair with technology but by intensifying it – through finding new energy sources or even looking at the possibility of inhabiting other worlds.

I've only read chapter six so can't pigeonhole where she is. Your synopsis of the transhumanists sounds dreadful. What I like is her drawing attention to feedbacks, unintended consequences, and ways positive and negative for system change, whether overall growth or not. The guiding principle seems to me consistent with my favorite definition of power by Bertrand Russell: "Power is the capacity to produce intended effects." More intelligence is always needed and sorely lacking in our culture at many levels.

 

[Ovulation]

I've only read chapter six so can't pigeonhole where she is. Your synopsis of the transhumanists sounds dreadful. What I like is her drawing attention to feedbacks, unintended consequences, and ways positive and negative for system change, whether overall growth or not. The guiding principle seems to me consistent with my favorite definition of power by Bertrand Russell: "Power is the capacity to produce intended effects." More intelligence is always needed and sorely lacking in our culture at many levels.

Yeah, but I think the world is such a complex system that we are hardly able to produce intended effects and no that doesn't mean we can switch off your brains and don't consider potential dangerous, but the overemphasis of unintended consequences comes very much from a place of privilege and saturation, sure an upper-middle-class westerner thinks the world is good and wants to preserve it, so the mindset of the precautionary principle creeps in (which by the way is in the EU, with the saturated welfare states, even more prevalent than in the US, think of the GMO panic). The technocrats in China, who have to lift 1 billion out of poverty so they stay calm, have a different mindset, they need growth and the know technology form the 20th century is not able to create it in such a scale.