Getting interesting... BMW 3-Series EV

[internalaudit]

At TMC Connect last week, one of the panel members (I don't recall who, sorry!) made a really interesting point. The major car companies are not worried about Tesla grabbing their market share. They're worried about Tesla grabbing the mind-share. I think that is really insightful, and from that perspective, Tesla is really a significant threat. In many ways (um, 400,000 ways, by one measure), they've already won.

It's a double-edged sword. If Tesla's mid to long term reliability will suck, they would lose may of their existing customers except maybe for those who lease and tend to change cars within the warranty period, the same group who leases a MB, Audi or BMW but hesitant to keep them past the warranty period.

Many of the competition are going to produce EVs in a year or two's time. Only those who don't introduce BEVs will suffer.

I don't mind losing some of the coolness if I can get more reliability back.

 

[jbcarioca]

At TMC Connect last week, one of the panel members (I don't recall who, sorry!) made a really interesting point. The major car companies are not worried about Tesla grabbing their market share. They're worried about Tesla grabbing the mind-share. I think that is really insightful, and from that perspective, Tesla is really a significant threat. In many ways (um, 400,000 ways, by one measure), they've already won.

I remember that, although I really thought the comment was a bit inane. BMW explicitly and semi-publicly fears Tesla precisely because Tesla already threatens their high-end cars in several markets. The Tesla high-end market share is causing financial loss for several of them. That's not mind-share, it's money!

Clearly the risk to them is about Tesla market-share moving down scale to more nearly mass markets. Again, not mind-share, but ~400,000 lost sales even before the car has even been revealed.

Car companies think of market share, margins and net profit. Mind share, sure but nothing nearly so much as lost sales.

 

[gregd]

It's a double-edged sword. If Tesla's mid to long term reliability will suck, they would lose may of their existing customers except maybe for those who lease and tend to change cars within the warranty period, the same group who leases a MB, Audi or BMW but hesitant to keep them past the warranty period.

Many of the competition are going to produce EVs in a year or two's time. Only those who don't introduce BEVs will suffer.

I don't mind losing some of the coolness if I can get more reliability back.

Agreed. But there is more to a Tesla than just being a BEV, and therefore more "mindshare" about their cars to claim. The whole TACC / self-driving angle. The performance and range. The styling. The large screen, and the integration with various apps. Lots of things come to mind when you mention "Tesla automobile" That's mindshare. The other manufacturers are playing BEV as a check-off item (extreme example, Honda's Clarity EV), and in doing so, demonstrate they don't get it. The ones that perhaps do understand the threat (BMW, Audi), are throwing out press announcements and marketing stunts ("Musk have").

Tesla absolutely has to deliver a quality product; sure. But when the general populace thinks "Tesla" when they hear "sexy car", that's when they have won.

 

[gregd]

I remember that, although I really thought the comment was a bit inane. BMW explicitly and semi-publicly fears Tesla precisely because Tesla already threatens their high-end cars in several markets. The Tesla high-end market share is causing financial loss for several of them. That's not mind-share, it's money!

Clearly the risk to them is about Tesla market-share moving down scale to more nearly mass markets. Again, not mind-share, but ~400,000 lost sales even before the car has even been revealed.

Car companies think of market share, margins and net profit. Mind share, sure but nothing nearly so much as lost sales.

Sure, all agreed. But the comment, in essence, stated that money follows mind. In those markets, Tesla has already captured a large portion of the mind share. The concern by the major manufacturers is that the other markets will follow, and the pre-order explosion is perhaps the clearest tangible evidence that Tesla is capturing mind share there too. We'll see what happens after the final reveal.

 

[AustinPowers]

If it is based off of the current 3 Series architecture, it will likely suffer from some kind of practical inconveniences. See the E Golf and Focus Electric. Designing an EV from the ground up will always result in a much more efficient product.

I fully agree on the Focus Electric. But what kind of "practical inconveniences" does the e-Golf have? I test drove an e-Golf on two separate occasions, once over a full weekend where I used it for all our normal activities, and I didn't notice any inconveniences when compared to a standard ICE Golf. Quite the contrary, there was not one aspect where I would have preferred the ICE version.

 

[RobStark]

I fully agree on the Focus Electric. But what kind of "practical inconveniences" does the e-Golf have?

It can only fit a 35.8 kWh battery pack resulting in sub 200 mile range.

A measly 125 miles of range.

Sub 200 mile BEVs should not be bashed because they are not Teslas.

But because they are crappy cars for the money.

 

[AustinPowers]

It is a Golf we are talking about! In what way is 125 miles of real-world range measly for a car that is generally not used as a family's only car? A typical Golf is a secondary (or even tertiary for some) car for many people, for which 125 miles of range is more than ample. Plus, it offers everything people who prefer traditional cars (styling- and usability-wise) look for. If for whatever reason I should decide to not go through with my Model 3 reservation, I will get an e-Golf instead - unless BMW really does come up with a compelling 3-series BEV at Model 3 prices - which I highly doubt. The e-Golf is a great car for the money imho.

But as for some comments regarding the 3-series not being suited as a BEV because the platform doesn't support the tech - remember all this new talk about a fully electric 3-series is about the next generation 3-series, which will indeed be designed to support long range batteries - i.e. skateboard configuration. At least that is what all news articles about the subject say. BMW has not made any official comments yet!

 

[RobStark]

It is a Golf we are talking about! In what way is 125 miles of real-world range measly for a car that is generally not used as a family's only car? A typical Golf is a secondary (or even tertiary for some) car for many people, for which 125 miles of range is more than ample.

Sufficient as a secondary vehicle keeps BEVs in the green car ghetto. In other words a POS.

BEVs have to offer comparable real world benefits to ICEv in its same price range.

BEVs with 125 miles or less of range will forever remain less than .5% global automotive market share.

That doesn't move the needle in decarbonizing the global economy. It just makes environmentalist owners feel good.

A 200 mile range BEV that offers comparable space,comfort,and amenities to a similarly priced ICEv seems to be the magic bullet to get mainstream non environmental fanatics to switch despite offering less range because of fuel savings, less maintenance cost, lower NVH etc.

 

[AustinPowers]

BEVs with 125 miles or less of range will forever remain less than .5% global automotive market share.

That doesn't move the needle in decarbonizing the global economy. It just makes environmentalist owners feel good.

I'd rather feel good driving a great 125 mile range BEV and help the environment in the process than drive yet another new POS ICE for several more years to come.
Remember also that not everybody who would like to go BEV has the funds to afford a Tesla, even if it is "just" a Model 3. Even one of those will - at least over here - not be anywhere near as what it costs in the US (or perhaps Norway). And therefor keep the BEV market share quite low. As soon as there are compelling BEVs available in quantitiy that cost between 20K and 30K Euro including the most important optional extras, demand will increase x-fold. But until then, every attractive offering helps, from the Zoe, e-Golf or Ioniq, right up to a Tesla.

 

[jelloslug]

It is depressing to see people completely diss any electric car other than Tesla. I have driven quite a range myself, from BYD E6, to Nissan Leaf, BMW i3 and I8 to Tesla S and X. Frankly they all have a market. Not all applications need long range. The BYD, for example, is perfect for the in-town rental car/taxi market to which it is pitched, and it is possessed of the same instant response that are all BEV's. Please realize that new BEV's are a Good Thing. They'll only help Tesla thrive and they're good for the planet.

I love the idea that other companies are really getting into the EV market. The idea that a 3 Series EV with the range that has been stated will priced competitively with the Model 3 though is fantasy.

Then it simply won't be competitive unless they are planning on badging it with an M3 logo. There's no need for costs to increase that much... If costs do increase that much then you are saying they are crappy engineers.

There is nothing wrong with the engineers, it's the constraints they were given to work with. I'm sure if they were given a clean slate to build a "normal car" EV that was not a test bed for every new design and process they could build a fantastic car with an appropriate price tag.

 

[JeffK]

I love the idea that other companies are really getting into the EV market. The idea that a 3 Series EV with the range that has been stated will priced competitively with the Model 3 though is fantasy.

There is nothing wrong with the engineers, it's the constraints they were given to work with. I'm sure if they were given a clean slate to build a "normal car" EV that was not a test bed for every new design and process they could build a fantastic car with an appropriate price tag.

Weight distribution plays an important role in how a car handles... if there's no longer an engine in the front then there are going to have to be some other changes to make it handle like a classic 3 series.

 

[Brando]

The so-called "competition" from BMW will be no competition at all. Instead of designing a pure EV, they will try to half-ass convert one of their 3 series cars into an EV. If it doesn't have at least 200 miles of real world range, don't even bother, BMW.

Elon, if BMW bothered to listen, has said the Roadster was done wrong. Tesla thought a conversion (building on an existing Lotus platform) would be cheaper and quicker. Should have designed from the ground up, as they did with the Model S. BMW has i series, so should know better. Interesting to see what they come up with.

 

[electracity]

I love the idea that other companies are really getting into the EV market. The idea that a 3 Series EV with the range that has been stated will priced competitively with the Model 3 though is fantasy.

It doesn't have to be priced at the entry model 3. It needs to be priced at a level that sells the quantity they want to sell. If there is some charging network being built, they will sell all they can make at $50-60K. If batteries for that car are $10K, that price range should work.

I assume BMW will build the electric X3 on this platform.

 

[Brando]

Electrification is not terribly difficult, and some manufacturers like Toyota have a lot of experience. If Tesla had to design their own engines and transmissions they would not have attempted to build cars. The permanent magnet motors in the Bolt may be less sophisticated than Tesla, but is just fine for 99.9% of buyers worldwide.

Electrification does depreciate the engine and transmission processes of traditional car companies. Those areas are not the majority of these companies.

Actually, the ICE, the engine/transmission and body is about the only thing not out-sourced.
Everything else come from suppliers, right? ABS, engine management, brakes, etc.

 

[Brando]

Sure, all agreed. But the comment, in essence, stated that money follows mind. In those markets, Tesla has already captured a large portion of the mind share. The concern by the major manufacturers is that the other markets will follow, and the pre-order explosion is perhaps the clearest tangible evidence that Tesla is capturing mind share there too. We'll see what happens after the final reveal.

Agreed, Model S has 25-33% 2016 luxury car market in just 4 years of production.
400,000 Model 3 orders in just one hour product intro.
We shall see just how blind these overpaid execs are. Bob Lutz a fine example, no?

 

[Krugerrand]

The title of this thread: Getting interesting...BMW 3-Series EV

Um...not interesting to me until the car is in production and BMW can't keep up with demand, having hundreds of thousands of reservations. Until such time it's 'meh', best of luck, wake me up when you go-go.

 

[JeffK]

Elon, if BMW bothered to listen, has said the Roadster was done wrong. Tesla thought a conversion (building on an existing Lotus platform) would be cheaper and quicker. Should have designed from the ground up, as they did with the Model S. BMW has i series, so should know better. Interesting to see what they come up with.

You know this is just pure speculation that are converting a design...They might actually design a new 3 series from the ground up with EVs in mind. There's nothing stopping them from that, it's not like they don't have the resources.

 

[electracity]

Actually, the ICE, the engine/transmission and body is about the only thing not out-sourced.
Everything else come from suppliers, right? ABS, engine management, brakes, etc.

Sometimes the engines and transmissions are bought from others. Engine and transmission are departments in a division. Sometimes separate plants, sometimes departments within a physical plant. To say that they buy everything else from other greatly mischaracterizes the business for making cars.

Tesla's advantages are strategy, software, and now brand. They are hugely disadvantaged at manufacturing in large quantities. When manufacturers believe people want large quantities of nice EVs they will build large quantities of nice EVs. The companies that don't time surging production right, including Tesla, may fail.

If General Motors had brought out the model S in 2012 it would have failed.

 

[electracity]

You know this is just pure speculation that are converting a design...They might actually design a new 3 series from the ground up with EVs in mind. There's nothing stopping them from that, it's not like they don't have the resources.

BMW has already said that they are doing that. The question is how skillfully they balance the tradeoffs.

BMW is undoubtedly uncertain on how many people really want and electric 3 series over the next 5-7 years. They are right to be uncertain.

The stable demand for the Tesla Model 3 could be 300,000 or 3,000,000 per year. No one knows for sure, except for a few TMC posters. BMW needs to compete but not trash the company if demands swings strongly one way or another.

 

[Brando]

Suggest you watch the "History of founding of Tesla" found at TeslaTap.com

Marc has told this story many times and you'll find many YouTube clips, so you can pick your favorite venue. Here is one example. Well worth watching.