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Government Shutdown/Debt Limit - Issues and Timelines for Investors
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That would be Boehner's offer that came from House Republicans. McConnell, the Republican minority leader in the Senate, as savvy as they come and saw that coming from a mile away, which is why is he moving on with his plan.
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If you've been reading this thread maybe. It's the first official word I've seen that Obama had rejected the proposal though.
This is probably the 5th time I'm repeating this, but the debt ceiling debate will not be solved soon. The disaster is just starting; just research what happened in 2011. It may be worse this time because the GOP is a mess and can't even agree within themselves. Also, don't think that 10/17 is the deadline; it's not. This may drag past that date.
McConnell is a pro. He probably already has things together ahead of time, or else it wouldn't be public already.
That said, things take time in the Senate unless there is unanimous consent, which Cruz and his cohorts will likely not give. So like 3 days probably, though that is a guess on my part.
But I'd be shocked if McConnell hasn't already got the votes he needs in his pocket, and some kind of wink or nod that we haven't heard about from Obama or Biden. Some of these details might change, but my opinion is that Democrats will do this, or else something very similar that will be essentially negotiated by this evening.
Probably the thing that Democrats will hate the most is the extension of the Sequester levels of spending until March, but I don't think they will really want to push another big fight too quickly once they think about it. We'll see I guess. Maybe they'll insist on taking this up again in December or January.
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Keep in mind, that it would be in both the Democrats and McConnell's interest for this all to be coming from him, and for the Democrats to squeal and cry a bit about the exact terms, because those optics will help when it comes to getting House Republicans to buy into this.
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Here is House Republicans trying to spin a non-agreement in a positive way -
Dow futures see-saw as Obama, GOP meeting ends with no immediate deal
It helps them that we don't know exactly what they proposed, but whatever it was the bottom line is that Obama did not agree to it. Now they are having "continuing discussions" but that just means the House Republicans are hoping the President will agree to some of their other a la carte ideas for ending this.
Where did you see this posted? Politico is stating no acceptance or rejection was made yet: "A senior House GOP aide said Obama “did not say yes or no to House Republicans’ offer.” Both sides are continuing talks tonight, according to the aide.
Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2013/10/government-shutdown-debt-ceiling-update-98134.html#ixzz2hMczefLz"
Norse
Active Member
Republican reaction: 'Good faith negotiations with the president' From Brendan Buck, press secretary for House Speaker John A. Boehner:
This evening in the Roosevelt Room, the leaders laid out the House proposal to temporarily extend the debt limit, formally appoint budget negotiators, and begin immediate discussions over how to re-open the government. No final decisions were made; however, it was a useful and productive conversation. The President and leaders agreed that communication should continue throughout the night. House Republicans remain committed to good faith negotiations with the president, and we are pleased there was an opportunity to sit down and begin a constructive dialogue tonight.
No good news, and no bad news. On the bright side, its one month until earnings anyways.
No good news, and no bad news. On the bright side, its one month until earnings anyways.
Posting this not for partisan purposes, but just to show the incentives that are pushing the action today.
The Republicans worst poll yet
This comes after similar results from Gallup yesterday.
The Republicans worst poll yet
This comes after similar results from Gallup yesterday.
That's political talk for "Obama laughed and rejected our first proposal. Back to the drawing board..."
Norse
Active Member
and
Another poll shows Cruz struggling Similar to the new Gallup poll, tonight’s Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll suggests Sen. Ted Cruz’s (R-Tex.) big move toward a national profile hasn’t gone well.
The poll shows 14 percent of Americans have a positive opinion of Cruz, while twice as many — 28 percent — have a negative one.
And Cruz has hardly become a conservative hero following his 21-hour, filibuster-esque speech in favor of defunding Obamacare. Just 7 percent have a strongly positive view of him, while about three times as many — 20 percent — have a strongly negative one.
While people like Obamacare more then before. This just gives Obama more faith in non-negotiation.
In addition to this, Obamacare gains in popularity despite woes. It's looking more and more grim for Republicans in the 2014 election cycle with every passing day of this crisis, and they are in outright panic despite what they say to the press.
Also, the Koch brothers letter was a very clear message: they will not tolerate a failure to raise the debt ceiling within the ranks of the (mostly Tea Party) Republican congresspersons they fund.
What this means is that the debt ceiling is likely to be raised without "concessions" as long as the White House and congressional Dems stand firm. Which they feel they must, because a failure to stop it is a tacit approval of more dangerous brinksmanship in Congress down the road. From either/any political party. Reid and Obama's position is that they must shut down this tactic as a permissible option for the future of the Union, not just for immediate economic reasons. Imagine if we had a Democratic House and Republican Senate with a Republican President. The Dems could turn around and do the same thing: deny funding for anything in government unless all of their wildest, most "socialist" demands were met. So, the current position of the White House is that this can't be allowed to exist as a tactic of negotiation in a functioning US government.
Norse
Active Member
Just a question. With regards to the polls, if the US fails to end the shutdown and a failure to raise the debt ceiling, will the republicans ever be reelected?
Sure, eventually. The memory of the people is short in our young country, and parties haven't had one constant ideological agenda throughout our history. During the end of slavery and the Civil War, the shoe was on the other foot. Lincoln was a Republican.
Will they get creamed in 2014? Probably if they keep this up, according to polls. Will they be gone for good? Nope.
Kipernicus
Model S Res#P1440
Starbucks petition
Does this sort of thing actually carry any weight in DC? Or is it just a marketing ploy to capitalize on the moment?
Does this sort of thing actually carry any weight in DC? Or is it just a marketing ploy to capitalize on the moment?
It is a fairly stupid business move. Why would they tick off part of their customer base by becoming partisan like that in such a public manner?
It is one thing to make partisan campaign contributions. Most customers don't look up something like that and will never know.
Petitions don't hurt. But I think probably the most effective thing an individual can do is the following:
1. Find your congress rep and senator's phone numbers. (find their phone # here: http://www.contactingthecongress.org)
2. Call their office. Somebody should pick up and tell that person you want to leave a message for your congress rep (or senator).
3. Tell them you are unhappy the shutdown has lasted this long and want your rep to vote to re-open the government immediately. Tell them lots of people in their constituency are not happy and are being hurt economically (ie., give examples of you, neighbors, people you know).
Then, post these instructions on Facebook and tell all your friends to do the same.
The more our representatives hear from us, the more pressure they will feel to take action.
I think you are giving way too much credit to McConnell. He doesn't have that long of a leash with his primary happening.
If he is leading the charge for surrender, then he is going to become target #1 for the Senate Conservative Fund (aka Demint and Cruz and Redstate.com)
And I don't see any way that a short term CR or debt limit increase is through March. The House GOP will insist on a shorter term deadline so they can keep applying pressure to get entitlement cuts.
The only significant change I see lately is that the ultimate budget deal with not be on Obamacare. The compromise seems to be that Obamacare is off the table because that is Obama's "legacy". So they will likely end up with a package of budget cuts to other mandatory spending. Perhaps CPI change to SS growth rate and a few other items.
They will get more bites at this apple in future CRs and debt limit increases. Despite whatever your politics are or the methods employed that you agree or disagree with, we should all recognize that entitlements are unaffordable. We are toast if they don't make some serious cuts to entitlements. We all need to recognize that at current projected deficits, we are entering the territory of Portugal, Ireland and Italy in terms of our debt to GDP. It is better to get the cuts done now instead of waiting for the bond markets to force us to do it. The IMF doesn't have the ability to bail us out like they do with the smaller economies.
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