SwedishAdvocate
Active Member
I know. It’s the same media outlet that employed (?) the infamous John Broder... Anyways…
A Federal Budget Crisis Months in the Planning - NYTimes.com
A Federal Budget Crisis Months in the Planning - NYTimes.com
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Government Shutdown/Debt Limit - Issues and Timelines for Investors
- Thread starter CapitalistOppressor
- Start date
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- TSLA
borat99
Member
borat99
Member
Not sure what to say about today, but to lighten things up a bit ... have you guys seen this? I thought it was pretty funny.
We Did Stop - SNL Highlight - YouTube
We Did Stop - SNL Highlight - YouTube
There is now no doubt that the debt limit fight is having a major impact on the market. I think this article pretty sums up today -
Stocks Finish Lower as Stalemate Drags On - WSJ.com
Here is a good discussion by Neil Irwin over at Wonkblog -
Whats happening in the Treasury bill market today should terrify you
Here is the story from Reuters (via Neil Irwin) about big money funds beginning to pull back from Treasuries -
Money funds avoid some U.S. debt on fear of repayment delays
Stocks Finish Lower as Stalemate Drags On - WSJ.com
Here is a good discussion by Neil Irwin over at Wonkblog -
Whats happening in the Treasury bill market today should terrify you
Here is the story from Reuters (via Neil Irwin) about big money funds beginning to pull back from Treasuries -
Money funds avoid some U.S. debt on fear of repayment delays
I really don't see how this can end. I've been watching C-span (for the first time ever, I have cared about politics!) the past two days at work. The house wastes all its time just repeating the same talking points from both side, and blaming each other. No progress is getting made.
Obama and Beohner have both put themselves in positions where they will look incredibly weak if one of them buckles. Essentially, it's a game of chicken, and both of them have thrown their steering wheel out the window. I think the only thing that is going to get this to end is the stock markets crashing. Something about losing 10% of your 401K gets you motivated to start bugging your representative. Short of that, I don't see either side caving. All of this needless suffering...
I just hope that the market recovers quickly afterwards.
Obama and Beohner have both put themselves in positions where they will look incredibly weak if one of them buckles. Essentially, it's a game of chicken, and both of them have thrown their steering wheel out the window. I think the only thing that is going to get this to end is the stock markets crashing. Something about losing 10% of your 401K gets you motivated to start bugging your representative. Short of that, I don't see either side caving. All of this needless suffering...
I just hope that the market recovers quickly afterwards.
Chickenlittle
Banned
its not so much as having an effect as being used as a tool for political advantage in the fight. It is like a war with take no prisoners. Market ignoring the fight until president talked it down first telling Wall Street the need to be concerned and then forecasting resession if not settled on two separate occasions. Even attempts to make the shut down more visible and painful being used as a tool. For instance I live near a national park with hiking trails. No facilities no rangers yet they spent effort and time to close all trails access, probably with overtime pay and purchase of barriers to prevent hiking. Have been to the ww2 memorial and it is all stone work and fountains without any staff kept there but again guards and barriers to protect something that's never protected at other times. it belies rational thought to do this.
I don't mean for this to sound one sided, both sides can be faulted but I do not understand the current administrations attempts to damage economy and make the situation worse. They need to be careful or it may backfire. His attempts alone to talk market down could produce down term lasting longer than this fight. People have long memories. If administration does not negotiate and default takes place there will be no advantage for republicans to fund obamacare and his legacy will be more than a down term, potentially depression and his signature healthcare program a shambles...quite a legacy
other potential is eventually attempts to develop another reserve currency
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Is it possible whoever bends will be remembered as a statesman for putting his own selfish interest behind the countries interest
stopcrazypp
Well-Known Member
I don't think it's a conspiracy. Legally, they can't issue paychecks after the shutdown, but before that they could spend money on barriers. The barriers there are probably to eliminate liability in case someone gets hurt at the location during the shutdown. If there's a shutdown, whatever insurance policy they may have at the location may not be in effect anymore.
This is what I wrote in the alternative energy thread, but it probably belongs here:
Yeah, just have to wait out the government stuff before getting in. That is why I was cautioning people who thought they were buying TSLA at the low after it went back up above $180. I am still waiting on the sidelines until we get a sign that they are getting close to a deal. Right now it doesn't sound that way, and they are playing the blame game.
It's not that the market wants to go down. Its that the market has to go down. It has to tell the congressmen that they are about to unleash financial Armageddon on the world.
The whole global financial system as well as global economic system is based on the fact that the US Treasury is THE safe haven security. Once the politicians start messing with that the whole global financial system can collapse.
This is the second time that congress has played this game. The rest of the world is starting to get very irritated. Markets around the world are tanking because 500 people, give or take, are playing a high-stake game of poker with the 7 billion people's chips.
The market is the referee here and it has to send congress a message. If tomorrow we have a "relief" rally, then it will only prolong the time it takes to get a deal done.
If the markets tank again tomorrow and the day after, I guarantee that congress will have a solution done over the weekend. But if they rally tomorrow and hold flat on Thursday then congress will not have any incentive to get anything done until Oct. 17.
What this means is that if the market finishes this week strong then it will have to tank hard next week. This is a bad scenario in my opinion, because we need a deal done ASAP. The longer we wait the more long term damage this political debacle will inflict on the US. They are playing with the reputation of our "risk-free" security.
We have to get a deal done soon, but if we don't then I would think that the markets have to continue to tank because that is the only way the congress will get its act together.
That is my opinion and I don't see any upside in getting in tomorrow unless you are playing a day trade. If the market goes up tomorrow then we will most definitely see a down day on Thursday unless you believe that congress will be close to a solution on Thursday.
The risk is to the downside in my opinion. I am waiting at least two more days before getting in, although I did get in a little today. I won't get money for two days so I think it will be perfect timing. If I had cash now I would be very tempted to buy in right now, but logically thinking I think it is a bad idea. So the fact that I won't have the cash transferred until the end of the week will probably turn out to be a blessing in disguise.
If the markets do rally over the next several days then I will be very happy too because I already have a huge (relatively speaking) long exposure to the market right now.
I set myself up in what I think is a win-win situation. The only way I lose is if congress completely screws up and we default, in which case I will lose it all; like most people in the markets. Prolonging a resolution could potentially lead to a global recession. Every day longer it takes to get this done is an additional day of significant economic damage to the US and global economy.
So logically thinking the markets have to continue to go down every single day until congress gets this done.
Also, it would definitely be better for the US economy in the long run if tomorrow they passed a continuing resolution and completely eliminated the debt limit, and then flipped a coin on Obamacare; than to continue going down this path of government shutdown and default scare tactics.
And then I also wrote this:
Speaking from a politically neutral perspective the republicans kind of have to do what they are doing. The democrats were in charge of all chambers and the people quickly voted republicans into the house to lower our spending which was out of control. The republicans have to fight to curb spending, because that is the vote of the people. Democrats in senate are sticking to their beliefs because that is why the people voted them in initially. It is a flawed system, but we have to understand that flaw and continue negotiating all the time and working together.
I think democrats and republicans should sit together and work together on every issue. E.g. both parties negotiate a deal in the house and send it to the senate where both parties make changes to the deal together and send it back and forth until they get a resolution.
I just don't think that the politicians understand what kind of damage every day of shutdown causes, and probably nobody does. We will only know after the fact, which will be too late. It is kind of like pollution and global warming; we will only find out what kind of damage we caused after the fact. Maybe if somebody could quantify to the politicians that we are hemorrhaging, for example, $5b or $50b of economic damage daily then they would get their act together.
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What do you think CO? Markets kind of have to go down, don't they?
Yeah, just have to wait out the government stuff before getting in. That is why I was cautioning people who thought they were buying TSLA at the low after it went back up above $180. I am still waiting on the sidelines until we get a sign that they are getting close to a deal. Right now it doesn't sound that way, and they are playing the blame game.
It's not that the market wants to go down. Its that the market has to go down. It has to tell the congressmen that they are about to unleash financial Armageddon on the world.
The whole global financial system as well as global economic system is based on the fact that the US Treasury is THE safe haven security. Once the politicians start messing with that the whole global financial system can collapse.
This is the second time that congress has played this game. The rest of the world is starting to get very irritated. Markets around the world are tanking because 500 people, give or take, are playing a high-stake game of poker with the 7 billion people's chips.
The market is the referee here and it has to send congress a message. If tomorrow we have a "relief" rally, then it will only prolong the time it takes to get a deal done.
If the markets tank again tomorrow and the day after, I guarantee that congress will have a solution done over the weekend. But if they rally tomorrow and hold flat on Thursday then congress will not have any incentive to get anything done until Oct. 17.
What this means is that if the market finishes this week strong then it will have to tank hard next week. This is a bad scenario in my opinion, because we need a deal done ASAP. The longer we wait the more long term damage this political debacle will inflict on the US. They are playing with the reputation of our "risk-free" security.
We have to get a deal done soon, but if we don't then I would think that the markets have to continue to tank because that is the only way the congress will get its act together.
That is my opinion and I don't see any upside in getting in tomorrow unless you are playing a day trade. If the market goes up tomorrow then we will most definitely see a down day on Thursday unless you believe that congress will be close to a solution on Thursday.
The risk is to the downside in my opinion. I am waiting at least two more days before getting in, although I did get in a little today. I won't get money for two days so I think it will be perfect timing. If I had cash now I would be very tempted to buy in right now, but logically thinking I think it is a bad idea. So the fact that I won't have the cash transferred until the end of the week will probably turn out to be a blessing in disguise.
If the markets do rally over the next several days then I will be very happy too because I already have a huge (relatively speaking) long exposure to the market right now.
I set myself up in what I think is a win-win situation. The only way I lose is if congress completely screws up and we default, in which case I will lose it all; like most people in the markets. Prolonging a resolution could potentially lead to a global recession. Every day longer it takes to get this done is an additional day of significant economic damage to the US and global economy.
So logically thinking the markets have to continue to go down every single day until congress gets this done.
Also, it would definitely be better for the US economy in the long run if tomorrow they passed a continuing resolution and completely eliminated the debt limit, and then flipped a coin on Obamacare; than to continue going down this path of government shutdown and default scare tactics.
And then I also wrote this:
Speaking from a politically neutral perspective the republicans kind of have to do what they are doing. The democrats were in charge of all chambers and the people quickly voted republicans into the house to lower our spending which was out of control. The republicans have to fight to curb spending, because that is the vote of the people. Democrats in senate are sticking to their beliefs because that is why the people voted them in initially. It is a flawed system, but we have to understand that flaw and continue negotiating all the time and working together.
I think democrats and republicans should sit together and work together on every issue. E.g. both parties negotiate a deal in the house and send it to the senate where both parties make changes to the deal together and send it back and forth until they get a resolution.
I just don't think that the politicians understand what kind of damage every day of shutdown causes, and probably nobody does. We will only know after the fact, which will be too late. It is kind of like pollution and global warming; we will only find out what kind of damage we caused after the fact. Maybe if somebody could quantify to the politicians that we are hemorrhaging, for example, $5b or $50b of economic damage daily then they would get their act together.
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What do you think CO? Markets kind of have to go down, don't they?
Chickenlittle
Banned
So do you plan on selling some assets into the relief rally? I am very much long still mostly option out to march so plenty of time but I was considering sell into a rally to buy back later
Probably not, because I will have a lot of cash (relatively speaking) to deploy at the end of the week anyway. I am going long through this week, but hoping that the market goes down.
I am hoping that the market goes down because it has to send congress a clear message, no ifs, ands, or buts. I am also hoping that it goes down because I will have cash to deploy and I will be ready to buy in the darkest of times, because ultimately I have faith in the politicians and know with certainty (in my mind) that they will reach a solution sooner or later.
If the market goes up tomorrow then it will kind of have to go down on Friday, unless they are getting very close to a deal in which case we will see a big rally. No signs of big deal yet, so I think market must go down.
Nominating Yellen might spark an early rally tomorrow, but I wouldn't be surprised if those early gains reverse in the second half of the day or even a lot earlier like today.
Risk is still to the downside. Maybe not tomorrow, but for the rest of the week, yes.
Norse
Active Member
mitch672
Active Member
I hope everything works out, but they are playing with fire, often resulting in burns and death.
Chickenlittle
Banned
Yea like that. Should have extended the comment to that
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Maybe should have said brew instead of foments revolution
Norse
Active Member
Your own goverment is destroying your economy,this is pretty insane. Im now taking alot of my money from the US market to put in Norwegian stocks. I`ll bet im not the only one. This destroys all the momentum in the stocks.
Chickenlittle
Banned
Your right. You Americans and the rest of the world. There is a perception that everything goes back to normal as soon as settled issue if default doesn't occur. I think not. People will remember this for quite a while and foreign money retail investor will not be back as quickly. Poor retail investor just getting courage to step back in to be greater with this will not return for years. Those still out of it will have their fears reaffirmed and not enter for more years
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Your right. You Americans and the rest of the world. There is a perception that everything goes back to normal as soon as settled issue if default doesn't occur. I think not. People will remember this for quite a while and foreign money retail investor will not be back as quickly. Poor retail investor just getting courage to step back in to be greater with this will not return for years. Those still out of it will have their fears reaffirmed and not enter for more years
that is greeted not greater
ev-enthusiast
Active Member
Seen from the distance (europe) it is sad to see polititians working that much against each other. They should solve the issue together!
This destroys even more in the lomg term than in the short term.
This destroys even more in the lomg term than in the short term.
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