Growing FSD liability could be massive.

Tesla: Growing Full Self-Driving Liability Could Be Massive (NASDAQ:TSLA)

Tesla, Inc. recently issued a recall on its full self-driving software package. Click for my take on TSLA's potential liability for FSD and my view of the stock.

seekingalpha.com

“For those that have followed the Tesla story, you know that CEO Elon Musk has basically talked about full self-driving for almost a decade now. The company still has not shown off the U.S. coast-to-coast autonomous drive that it said would come by the end of 2017, for instance.”

“The potential liability question comes into play here if you think Tesla won't be able to truly solve FSD with the current hardware. One might think that a potential lawsuit would just want to refund the FSD price, and those arguing here might cite the recall number of vehicles to get a total liability. At an average cost of $10,000 for FSD, that gets you to around $4 billion when you consider how many customers have reportedly paid for the package so far.”

Image source: Full Self-Driving Computer Installations | Tesla Support Other Europe
Image added for Blog Feed thumbnail

 

[mjwojtukiewicz]

Are you implying that you know more about what FSD can and will do than Elon knows?

Don't know more. All I know is there are too many situations that can happen while driving and I don't see recent technology being able to handle them all

 

[galimpic]

I think FSD has already delivered on its promise. It drives you to your destination in any kind of traffic situation, and it only requires you to pay attention and occasionally correct it, as is always clearly stated when you are to use it. The fact that some of it is still in beta and that software and hardware are continuously improving only shows they are going above and beyond in efforts to make it even better. I really don't know why people are expecting more, and what is it they actually expect it to do besides what it's already doing.

 

[Leytonstone]

I think FSD has already delivered on its promise. It drives you to your destination in any kind of traffic situation, and it only requires you to pay attention and occasionally correct it, as is always clearly stated when you are to use it. The fact that some of it is still in beta and that software and hardware are continuously improving only shows they are going above and beyond in efforts to make it even better. I really don't know why people are expecting more, and what is it they actually expect it to do besides what it's already doing.

FSD is barely awake here in the UK and in France, and is just plain dangerous in situations where it isn't spring, summer or autumn some time between 9am and 5pm and the roads aren't straight, wide, dry, and clearly marked.

I keep meaning to take my GoPro along one morning, wipe all the cameras and show just how comically bad it is. Easier, safer less anxiety provoking just to do it yourself. These are fundamentally stress-free cars to drive anyway.

I realise some of its present limitations are down to regulatory differences between nations, but I've been in the "pipe dream" camp for some time now. Nothing I've seen or used in the last 2-3 years has given me cause to reconsider.

 

[galimpic]

FSD is barely awake here in the UK and in France

I am sorry, I probably should have put a disclaimer that my opinion is only valid for the way it functions in USA, as I have no experience using it in Europe. I assume that, due to older roads, less planned city street networks, varying local traffic rules, narrower streets etc. it is much more difficult to produce a good FSD solution for that with the current state of technology.

 

[ewoodrick]

As I drive my car every day (20 miles or less) I see something different on the roadway or see different driving circumstances and I say to myself. FSD may NEVER be able to drive grandma to the doctor with no intervention. It just doesn't handle this situation. So with all the infinite possibilities that can occur is
there a set of code that can do what I might have to do. People talk about edge cases. Well when grandma dies in a car accident on the way to the doctor because of an edge case wont fly. Tesla should really work on making a car that assists the human driver in almost every way possible

Interesting, as I drive mine every day, I see the roads changing, I have construction popping up, everything changes.

And the car figures it out. Recently I've been noticing the interaction between the car and a postal vehicle pulled partially off the road. The car sees the postal vehicle, slows down moves to the left and continues on pass the postal vehicle.

My wife was with me one day and she panicked as the postal vehicle got closer. She would have definitely disengaged. But then she saw the car do it and we'll see what it does next time.

Lots of people disengage FSD early, just because they don't trust it yet. Not that the car doesn't do it correctly and smoothly, just because the don't think that the car will.

Many years ago I was doing Search and Rescue work in the Smokies. We have a relatively large transport aircraft go missing. We found it, basically belly flat on a vertical slope. They had been out doing low level terrain avoidance runs. And even in those day, it was mostly automated, the birds were known to be able to do it all by their selves.
What happened here, pilot didn't think that the bird was going to make it, overrode the autopilot and DIDN'T live to regret it.

(Legal Disclaimer) I'm not saying for you to completely trust the car and let it drive 100%. What I'm saying is that a LOT of people just assume that the car isn't going to do it correctly or even better (just like kids learning to drive) that the car is going to do it EXACTLY as they would (with a lot of bad habits) do it.

 

[Matias]

Seeking Alpha. I never waste time reading their stuff.

While Elon has made grand statements, and repeatedly, Tesla’s written documentation on what they intend to deliver for “FSD” does not exceed L2 driver assistance. Neither do they promise how well the FSD features will work. In my opinion, Tesla has already delivered 90% of their promises. The only missing features that I can think of are ”ASS” (actually smart summon) and reverse summon.

 

[EVNow]

"could be massive" = "could be small".

Just FUD to influence stock price.

 

[2101Guy]

apparently some peoples defintion of "NO ACTION REQUIRED BY THE PERSON IN THE DRIVERS SEAT" REALLY differs. There are those that are living in reality of what that means by the definition of each word.

Then there are Elon stans.

 

[ewoodrick]

Wow, it's amazing how many people are getting upset over an extremely simple concept.

Tesla is planning on delivering Full, L5 FSD.
Current FSD Beta is a L2 solution.

The paths don't cross, they are completely in agreement with each other. This isn't Tesla admitting failure.

It's mostly when talking to the NTSB or FHSA use their legal language. Those are the words that they understand.

And it is a simple fact that so many people can't understand FSD beta IS NOT FSD

 

[birjman]

When I purchased FSD the website looked exactly like what Matias just posted. Please enlighten me on how most of those promises have been delivered?

 

[ewoodrick]

When I purchased FSD the website looked exactly like what Matias just posted. Please enlighten me on how most of those promises have been delivered?

If you are talking to me. The answer is that it is legally pretty much irrelevant.

But except for the summons and park seek, it seems to do it all for me.

 

[birjman]

If you are talking to me. The answer is that it is legally pretty much irrelevant.

But except for the summons and park seek, it seems to do it all for me.

I wasn't but the response is wild nonetheless. I just can't believe we live in the same reality.

 

[ewoodrick]

I wasn't but the response is wild nonetheless. I just can't believe we live in the same reality.

I'm planning on giving you a million dollars is one thing.

Signing a contact with a specific date is another.

Tesla is planning on delivering it. They are spending a lot of money on it to do so. They have provided large portions of the capabilities so far.

It's not as if they are taking the money and running. Those valley engineers and the toys that they need to play with aren't cheap.

 

[mjwojtukiewicz]

Interesting, as I drive mine every day, I see the roads changing, I have construction popping up, everything changes.

And the car figures it out. Recently I've been noticing the interaction between the car and a postal vehicle pulled partially off the road. The car sees the postal vehicle, slows down moves to the left and continues on pass the postal vehicle.

My wife was with me one day and she panicked as the postal vehicle got closer. She would have definitely disengaged. But then she saw the car do it and we'll see what it does next time.

Lots of people disengage FSD early, just because they don't trust it yet. Not that the car doesn't do it correctly and smoothly, just because the don't think that the car will.

Many years ago I was doing Search and Rescue work in the Smokies. We have a relatively large transport aircraft go missing. We found it, basically belly flat on a vertical slope. They had been out doing low level terrain avoidance runs. And even in those day, it was mostly automated, the birds were known to be able to do it all by their selves.
What happened here, pilot didn't think that the bird was going to make it, overrode the autopilot and DIDN'T live to regret it.

(Legal Disclaimer) I'm not saying for you to completely trust the car and let it drive 100%. What I'm saying is that a LOT of people just assume that the car isn't going to do it correctly or even better (just like kids learning to drive) that the car is going to do it EXACTLY as they would (with a lot of bad habits) do it.

It may adjust for you mine waits for the very last second. Also, last week it did not avoid orange work cones around a truck and a little further down the road did not avoid the truck. Too many variables.

 

[mjwojtukiewicz]

I think FSD has already delivered on its promise. It drives you to your destination in any kind of traffic situation, and it only requires you to pay attention and occasionally correct it, as is always clearly stated when you are to use it. The fact that some of it is still in beta and that software and hardware are continuously improving only shows they are going above and beyond in efforts to make it even better. I really don't know why people are expecting more, and what is it they actually expect it to do besides what it's already doing.

We are expecting more because the Techo King Twi Head said robo cars will be availabe end of 2019 if I am correct.

 

[mjwojtukiewicz]

Wow, it's amazing how many people are getting upset over an extremely simple concept.

Tesla is planning on delivering Full, L5 FSD.
Current FSD Beta is a L2 solution.

The paths don't cross, they are completely in agreement with each other. This isn't Tesla admitting failure.

It's mostly when talking to the NTSB or FHSA use their legal language. Those are the words that they understand.

And it is a simple fact that so many people can't understand FSD beta IS NOT FSD

Then stop charging 15K for it and not transferring it to a new car

 

[Dewg]

I'll just leave these here:

Primary Estoppel Explained, With Requirements & Example

Promissory estoppel is the legal principle defining that a promise is enforceable by law when a party who relies on that promise suffers a related detriment.

www.investopedia.com

Can You Sue Someone Over a Broken Promise?

If you justifiably relied on the promise, you might (possibly) have a remedy.

www.psychologytoday.com

 

[ewoodrick]

Then stop charging 15K for it and not transferring it to a new car

OR if you don't believe it, don't pay for it.

Some folks realize that the Model S revenues were used to build the Model 3.
And similarly, FSD purchases are being used to fund development.

 

[2101Guy]

OR if you don't believe it, don't pay for it.

Some folks realize that the Model S revenues were used to build the Model 3.
And similarly, FSD purchases are being used to fund development.

Most people on this board (which admittedly is a fraction of the overall Tesla buying population) now know the reality of FSD and know not to believe anything that Elon says within that space.
But I am certain there are tons of (Tesla) buyers who have purchased FSD based on the claims made by the very vocal and very hands on CEO of the company.

 

[GSP]

View attachment 911997

What does “designed to be able to conduct trips with no action from the person in the driver’s seat mean? That is their design goal, in my opinion. It can conduct some trips with no action already, and is getting better. Note that Tesla did not say ”all trips in all conditions,” that would be L5.

Is monitoring the system, traffic, and the environment “taking action?” In my opinion, an L2 system can be designed to require no “action“ from the driver.

I guess more important than my opinion as to what Tesla’s official promises for FSD have been, would be the likely ruling by a court.

GSP