You're assuming that if you double the number of cars, you need double the number of superchargers. This is not necessarily the case. As the numbers start getting larger, the probability of blocking becomes less. In other words, a supercharger with 8 stalls can accommodate more than double the number of cars one with 4 stalls can accommodate without a chance of someone having to wait for a spot. In fact, it can actually accommodate almost 4 times as much traffic. I think many supercharger locations today are still largely underutilized. The biggest issue is one of reach as opposed to capacity. I know there are exceptions to this in some very heavily used locations in CA, but for the most part, the network is underutilized. That said, I wonder what they are targeting as their "busy hour". Popular holidays when people take road trips are probably what they need to plan for.
-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
Harris Ranch is getting first battery swap station
- Thread starter Lump
- Start date
You're assuming that if you double the number of cars, you need double the number of superchargers. This is not necessarily the case. As the numbers start getting larger, the probability of blocking becomes less. In other words, a supercharger with 8 stalls can accommodate more than double the number of cars one with 4 stalls can accommodate without a chance of someone having to wait for a spot. In fact, it can actually accommodate almost 4 times as much traffic. I think many supercharger locations today are still largely underutilized. The biggest issue is one of reach as opposed to capacity. I know there are exceptions to this in some very heavily used locations in CA, but for the most part, the network is underutilized. That said, I wonder what they are targeting as their "busy hour". Popular holidays when people take road trips are probably what they need to plan for.
callmesam
Member
I agree and think Tesla is smart to Supersize their Supercharging network quickly. Just opening all the major routes in the U.S. will be a bare minimum. Most Superchargers won't get used much at all, and a few will be used almost to capacity.
I have predicted that major world cities will get 5-10 Superchargers each, which will provide much better charging access.
Make a list:
LA
Seattle
SF
Chicago
London
Paris
Tokyo
Berlin
etc
etc
Those Superchargers will provide access to travelers, city dwellers without good charger access and taxi and fleets fast access.
The problem with big cities is that there's seldom an ideal location. In a place like LA, there's no one location that would be convenient for most drivers. Better to cover the routes in and out of the city, rather than put a supercharger in the city. Besides, I'm not sure Tesla really wants to fund routine charging for city dwellers and fleets.
callmesam
Member
I agree completely. There is seldom a single ideal location. But there are 5-10 locations in So CAL that will provide very convenient charging for 90+% of the people that:
1. Don't have charging at home,
2. Don't have charing at work,
3. Don't have access to ANOTHER charging network (Blink, Chargepoint, . . . )
Giving Southern California as an example, TM could place ANOTHER 10 - 20 Superchargers in Southern California enabling universal charging for any resident until at least Model 3.
At a cost of $1.5M - $6M depending on who you believe about cost/install.
Then if TM prices Supercharging access at $2500 for Model 3 they could offer universal buffet all-you-can-eat charging everywhere.
Not exactly breaking the bank of a ~$30B company.
Repeat at 25 biggest cities and you see that a plan for the next 3-5 years to install in cities could be one incredible "lever" of production.
It's not as flashy as dual motor and autopilot, but Supercharger Network and effects are going to be an incredibly valuable business in their own right.
The pace of permit, construction and opening is increasing toward the end of this year and it looks like the network is going to get a big upgrade.
I think about this quote when thinking about where TM could be spending $.
“People have gotten used to us showing all of our cards, We’re not currently showing all of our cards. Our cap ex and R&D numbers are better than they appear because there are things you don’t know about.” - Elon Musk
Last edited:
Everyone is complaining about how many superchargers are in California - I will tell you one huge void. Its called San Diego - We traveled to my mother in laws - she lives in an apartment. We don't have dual chargers in our s85. What a pain in the A__ that trip was. I was never so happy to see San Jaun Capistrano! I charged a little at an RV dealer, charged a little bit at a pub. You never realize how nice they supercharger network is until its gone! I live in Vegas....
Cottonwood
Roadster#433, Model S#S37
That's why I always strongly recommend dual chargers.
The Show Room at UTC is very friendly, will let you use their power, and there is plenty to do in the shopping center.
The Service Center near Miramar Road has 8 HPWC's with 7/24 availability. There are a couple of breweries within a 10 minute walk.
I agree San Diego needs a Supercharger, but so does Sheridan, WY; St Louis, MO; Mobile, AL; etc...
callmesam
Member
San Diego needs at least 5 Superchargers to provide major highways and routes are covered:
Downtown
El Cajon
Julian
Escondido
Temecula
Would be a good start.
There are only three major routes in and out of town: 5, 8, and 15.
As long as you can hit superchargers on your way in and out of town, you shouldn't need to charge downtown. Besides, downtown San Diego is not convenient unless you already have a reason to be downtown.
callmesam
Member
San Diego is the 8th largest U.S. city and I wonder why it doesn't merit a large handful of chargers.
- - - Updated - - -
I'll bet you one beverage of choice that San Diego county will get at least two if not more by the end of 2015. Downtown needs the charger as there are tons of condos and fewer home charging options.
Maybe someday. But what other city has a large handful of chargers?
I won't take that bet. The county is quite large, so it's certainly possible. But I hope that downtown is a low priority for Tesla. There aren't really that many people living downtown.. maybe 30,000, and Tesla shouldn't be funding daily charging, anyway.
I'll be by on Friday night and Monday morning; will take a look and upload more pics if there is new progress.
callmesam
Member
BB,
Don't be afraid to stick your iPhone into some nooks and crannies.
- - - Updated - - -
London has 4
Hong Kong has 5, 2 across the border in mainland Shenzhen.
Hangzhou has 4
Shanghai has 4
Beijing has 5
Tokyo has 3
Chicago has 4
Denver has 2
Los Angeles has 1 constructed, 1 under construction
NoCO
Member
I'm 95% sure, an area close to SD and south of Oceanside will have construction starting, probably not this month, but I'll bet before the end of the year.
callmesam
Member
Seems like the old car wash building is fully demolished now, but the fenced off area there is huge (maybe bigger than it was before from this thread's earlier pics), and I was unable to get close enough to see anything new in terms of construction progress.
Tyl
Active Member
They continue to work on the battery swap station. Inside there is a deep pit similar to oil change pits. A few pictures .. unfortunately limited views!
FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
palmer_md
Member
So I take it the previous post was wrong and the old car wash building is still there, or are these photos older?
Similar threads
