Has anyone realized how profoundly FSD will disrupt Real Estate?

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Sounds like a dystopian hell like the train in snow piercer. How much money are you saving living in an RV that's traveling all the time, consuming vast quantities of energy to do so, burning through a set of tires every month, and other wear and tear?

Yes, not happening. _But_ I could imagine increasing RV sales as it would save on the driving effort and allow people to enjoy the scenery.

Anyway, true FSD would nonetheless have a big impact on real estate because it would substantially mitigate issues around commuting. Instead of driving being able to nap or work would be valuable to many.

This. Especially when you consider it in combination with remote working.

Also, acting as the chauffeur that most suburban parents' hell is these days would be markedly reduced because you can send your kids to events by themselves.

Anything that makes being a parent easier is highly desirable.
Also a potential significant boon to suburban children. Maybe they'll take their parents AVs and meet up somewhere and message each other.

 

[kabin]

It's a fun discussion even if unrealistic.

RV build quality has never been good but since the pandemic it's been downright awful and most states have terrible RV lemon laws. So maybe a TSLA RV fits right in!

I could picture an Elon minimalistic design with stiff beds, hard seats, 100 mile range, low profile wheels, mandatory sunroof, cool exterior design, and the fastest RV 0-60mph time.

 

[ChooseFreedom]

I don't know why you mentioned much of what you said as a response to what I posted, why you assume I am leaving late to get to my destination, or why you believe I am the 'exact' kind of driver who should use it more. I am not offended, but I do take pride in being a punctual person!

Driving slower is safer, no doubt, but as I said in my previous post, I did not pay for FSD to drive around at a snail's pace. If Tesla only achieves ACTUAL full-self driving but only at 10MPH, then they owe everyone a refund. Had it been advertised that it would permanently drive like a confused 16-year-old even after 100 updates, no doubt most people would not have spent the extra money and opted for a car with FSD.

Using FSD in Portland traffic is extremely embarrassing (for me at least). However, I am glad you find it useful in its current state.

Apologies for implying you're not punctual.
Full disclosure: I don't have FSD. And I would completely agree with your statement about it's limitations, and many people not getting what they were promised.

I think if FSD is to be embraced, it's going to have to operate at least at minimum speed requirements. You know, roads do have mins as well as maxes. So your concerns about it being slow are perfectly valid.

Rather than the teenager reference, it's probably more accurate to compare it to the geriatric drivers!

 

[enemji]

They're not paying rent to be on the highway. The space is "free."

People like you are the ones who bring this to the notice of the regulators. They will then start charging road tax on number of miles driven.

 

[sdiver68]

I'm not sure about real estate but it absolutely could be a game changer for travel and vacations.

Imagine an extended Model Y with 5 seats that recline fully into beds. I want to take my annual 1500 mile trip to winter in Phoenix. I leave on Friday morning with wife and dog and work from my car then sleep as it's driving. I wake up with my car parked at a golf course for a 10am tee time. She then drives to the condo and sends the car back for me after the round.

Friends fly down and want to visit Las Vegas as part of the trip. We leave Friday night at 11pm and wake in the parking garage of a Casino.

Then off to Palm Springs, again traveling while we sleep. Etc...

Travelers hotels are certainly losers in this scenario.

 

[DrChaos]

With all due respect who are you trying to kid here? Many in the forum have FSD--or at least tried it in the April free 30 days. I had to intervene many times to avoid it getting into accidents. Had nothing to do with trust; the system is simply nowhere close to the competency of even a bad human driver when it comes to navigating surface streets.

What area were you testing?

If my life depended on me getting across the city and the choice is between a non-intervention FSD, or a guy who just blew .18 BAC I'd absolutely choose the drunk driver.

This is not my experience---but my experience is in clean roads in Southern California. I think there is much more training data for California and so far I conjecture it performs significantly better there. Machine learning systems have a habit of picking up on irrelevant correlative information in the training set that a human would ignore. Because they don't know better and the systems will do exactly that.

Humans are also learning continuously---if you take a human driver into a new area, most will pick up on how typical locals drive and try to fit in given a base of competency. The FSD system definitely does not, all training is back at the mothership and pushed out. It's not feasible for self-learning on the edge yet.

 

[EVNow]

I had to intervene many times to avoid it getting into accidents.

This is the learning/trust part. You have to learn when the system can be trusted and when you need to intervene. It takes time to figure that out. When you start off you will intervene a lot of times and frequently. Its a steep learning curve and some will never make it past the first couple of days ...

 

[EatsShoots]

What area were you testing?

Suburbs of my city. It's able to go several miles at a time without an intervention, which is impressive overall, but there's weird behavior. The times it was certainly going to crash for me were going through a tunnel or various two-way-one-lane bridges we have, which require people to take turns (there are no lights). The car simply has no concept of taking turns, or keying off expressions from drivers like if they flash a high beam that it's your turn or wave you through.

 

[ThomasD]

It works well then people get complacent because it hasn't messed up in 1,000 miles. But that 1,001 miles comes back and bites you in the ASS.

 

[EatsShoots]

This is the learning/trust part. You have to learn when the system can be trusted and when you need to intervene. It takes time to figure that out. When you start off you will intervene a lot of times and frequently. Its a steep learning curve and some will never make it past the first couple of days ...

heh, yeah cause if they are too trusting they end up impaled by a steel barrier

In current state i'd get it if I was doing a road trip, for the highway, but around the city I soon found it felt more like a chore than not--like I was with a new driver and having to pay keen attention at all times (even more than when I'm driving) because I had no idea what it was going to do.

 

[EVNow]

heh, yeah cause if they are too trusting they end up impaled by a steel barrier

Given so few reported accidents esp. of the impaled by a steel barrier variety - I think most are less trusting than they can be. As you get more experience, you will start trusting more.

It works well then people get complacent because it hasn't messed up in 1,000 miles. But that 1,001 miles comes back and bites you in the ASS.

People have been speculating about this for a long time. We are not there yet - so, we don't know. Current intervention rates are more like 10 MPI.

 

[DrChaos]

Suburbs of my city.

which is where?

It's able to go several miles at a time without an intervention, which is impressive overall, but there's weird behavior. The times it was certainly going to crash for me were going through a tunnel or various two-way-one-lane bridges we have, which require people to take turns (there are no lights). The car simply has no concept of taking turns, or keying off expressions from drivers like if they flash a high beam that it's your turn or wave you through.

The second is going to require AGI (interpreting human behaviors). There is nothing like those two in the vast areas of California in the training data, where most Teslas drive.

I think that will require human intervention for at least 15-20 years, and a better system with better maps would stop and tell you to switch over (L3 or L4, not L5) there.

Tesla is too cheap to buy the quality proprietary maps.

For me I could let FSD do most of my daily commuting except when there is very heavy slow/stopped traffic requiring tight merges---also a human behavior interpretation problem.

 

[enemji]

The car simply has no concept of taking turns, or keying off expressions from drivers like if they flash a high beam that it's your turn or wave you through.

I disagree. My car does that too often, letting others pass, and in that case often missing the exit because other people do not realize in giving turn back. They just keep going, one after another. However, lately, it has gotten the confidence at traffic lights to drive into the almost non existant space between two cars, forcing them to give me the space.

 

[ewoodrick]

With all due respect who are you trying to kid here? Many in the forum have FSD--or at least tried it in the April free 30 days. I had to intervene many times to avoid it getting into accidents. Had nothing to do with trust; the system is simply nowhere close to the competency of even a bad human driver when it comes to navigating surface streets.

If my life depended on me getting across the city and the choice is between a non-intervention FSD, or a guy who just blew .18 BAC I'd absolutely choose the drunk driver.

It absolutely is not. Simply put: there's no chance in hell FSD in its current state could drive 100 miles around the average city without getting in an accident. I don't know anybody who is such a bad driver they get in an accident every 100 miles and, if such a person existed, their insurance would long have since passed the point at which they could pay for it and/or their car would be too wrecked. Think of the crappiest driver you've ever met. How many accidents per week do they get into?

Just because FSD doesn't always make the same mistakes, at the same time, as humans, does not mean it's better.

As I've said before FSD in its current incarnation is thoroughly inferior to a brand new driver who just passed their driving test this morning, if my key metric (which is a very reasonable one) is miles driven without an accident. I would bet my life on the fact that in a single afternoon of training I could take an average 12 year old to a safer point of driving than FSD.

My wife and I each have put 10s of thousands of miles on FSD, all through it's various iterations.

FSD requires learning. No, I'm not talking about the training that it requires, it's the learning that drivers must go through to trust it.!

I can pretty well guarantee you that in 99% of the time that "you were going to die!!!" the car was going to do the right thing. I'm not exaggerating.
The other night I drove it for 70 miles without only 1 intervention, it was a new construction zone being setup with a lot of cars panicking and workers all over the place, I just took over because my reaction time may not have been quick enough.

People HAVE driven it for 100 miles with no interventions and no accidents.

It's basically similar to a back or right seat driver. they see something and are sure that they are going to die and have to give the driver instructions, but the driver saw it before they did and was already reacting.

What would you have done if you were on a two-lane road, a postal vehicle pulled halfway off the road and vehicles approaching from the other direction?
I date say that you would have aborted and took over. But guess what FSD knows how to handle this and does an awesome job at it. Once it saw the other cars, it slows to a stop, waits for the lane to clear, pulls partially in the other lane and passes the postal vehicle.

In the vast number of times, FSD isn't going to make a mistake, the driver incorrectly assumes that it will.

It takes time to learn that it can drive, and one month really isn't enough.

All of the statements that you mention have been disproved by facts.

 

[enemji]

With all due respect who are you trying to kid here? Many in the forum have FSD--or at least tried it in the April free 30 days. I had to intervene many times to avoid it getting into accidents. Had nothing to do with trust; the system is simply nowhere close to the competency of even a bad human driver when it comes to navigating surface streets.

If my life depended on me getting across the city and the choice is between a non-intervention FSD, or a guy who just blew .18 BAC I'd absolutely choose the drunk driver.

Couple of Questions:
1. Have you ever used Uber?
2. Have you ever sat in the passenger seat and trained a new driver?

 

[ewoodrick]

Apologies for implying you're not punctual.
Full disclosure: I don't have FSD. And I would completely agree with your statement about it's limitations, and many people not getting what they were promised.

I think if FSD is to be embraced, it's going to have to operate at least at minimum speed requirements. You know, roads do have mins as well as maxes. So your concerns about it being slow are perfectly valid.

Rather than the teenager reference, it's probably more accurate to compare it to the geriatric drivers!

And what are the minimum speed requirements.

I remember one day realizing how slow FSD was driving and decided to speed up. That's when I realized that it was only following a much slower driver ahead.

Remember I doubt if you will ever be a teenage driver in the future, but I know that if you live long enough, you WILL be a geriatric driver.

 

[enemji]

My wife and I each have put 10s of thousands of miles on FSD, all through it's various iterations.

FSD requires learning. No, I'm not talking about the training that it requires, it's the learning that drivers must go through to trust it.!

I can pretty well guarantee you that in 99% of the time that "you were going to die!!!" the car was going to do the right thing. I'm not exaggerating.

I totally agree with you. I have had the same experience.

 

[EatsShoots]

which is where?

Western NY state

My wife and I each have put 10s of thousands of miles on FSD, all through it's various iterations.

FSD requires learning. No, I'm not talking about the training that it requires, it's the learning that drivers must go through to trust it.!

I can pretty well guarantee you that in 99% of the time that "you were going to die!!!" the car was going to do the right thing. I'm not exaggerating.
The other night I drove it for 70 miles without only 1 intervention, it was a new construction zone being setup with a lot of cars panicking and workers all over the place, I just took over because my reaction time may not have been quick enough.

People HAVE driven it for 100 miles with no interventions and no accidents.

It's basically similar to a back or right seat driver. they see something and are sure that they are going to die and have to give the driver instructions, but the driver saw it before they did and was already reacting.

What would you have done if you were on a two-lane road, a postal vehicle pulled halfway off the road and vehicles approaching from the other direction?
I date say that you would have aborted and took over. But guess what FSD knows how to handle this and does an awesome job at it. Once it saw the other cars, it slows to a stop, waits for the lane to clear, pulls partially in the other lane and passes the postal vehicle.

In the vast number of times, FSD isn't going to make a mistake, the driver incorrectly assumes that it will.

It takes time to learn that it can drive, and one month really isn't enough.

All of the statements that you mention have been disproved by facts.

Here's some context. I play video games a lot, and I've played a lot of car video games. My interventions were not baseless panics. I was waiting until the last moment before something went south--I gave it as much rope as I could within reason. If its approach to driving is to trick drivers into thinking it's going to crash when it's not this is not a reasonable system. So, is it possible if I had waited an extra 100 ms the car would have behaved properly? Maybe. I'll never know. I don't think so.

Has anybody driven it for 100 miles through a city without an intervention? Because I just saw a review on youtube of a guy who had 7 interventions on 12.4.1 in his car trip (trip looked to be an hour or so), in california and he's a big fan of AI driving (it's even his license plate).

 

[enemji]

Western NY state

"Almost all sources agree WNY includes the cities of Buffalo, Niagara Falls, Jamestown, and the surrounding suburbs, as well as the outlying rural areas of the Great Lakes lowlands and Niagara Frontier, and Chautauqua-Alleghany (or the western Southern Tier). "

That is not that bad from a traffic standpoint. We are all reporting from major metropolitan areas with crazy traffic.

 

[EatsShoots]

Couple of Questions:
1. Have you ever used Uber?
2. Have you ever sat in the passenger seat and trained a new driver?

yes and yes.