Hi, I’m a short seller

[Electroman]

shorts thesis has been more or less consistent for years

Lets look at how short thesis has been consistent since 2012:

2012: Thesis: Tesla will never make a single car. It is only a matter a months before they go the Fisker way. Lets start a death watch

<Oops they are making 'S' and it is getting rave reviews. Lets change our thesis now >

2013: Thesis change: But they will never sell more than a few (low single digit) thousands a year. There is no market for $100K golf carts
New Thesis: EVs are bad for the environment. They catch fire. No one will buy EVs. FCEVs will rule the world. Toyota will kill Tesla in no time with Mirai. Mirai Mirai Mirai.
New Thesis: Hybrids and Start/Stop tech will rule the future. EVs are dead. (browny points if you know which famous bear said this)
New Thesis: There is a reason why no manufacturer wants to make EVs, because they are crap.

<Oops there is a lot of demand and a wait for several months>

2014: Thesis change: Demand has peaked. Demand has peaked. Not more than 5k per quarter worldwide.

<Oops. Musk is pulling rabbits out of the hat. AWD and what the heck is this Auto Pilot?. And looks like ICE giants are also liking EVs>

2015: Thesis change: Okay, okay we agree 'S' is a great product. But 'X' will be a huge failure. Who wants expensive mommy mobile? 'X' will not sell more than 20k per year. I will eat a hat if it does (browny points if you know which famous bear said this)
Thesis change: Competition will destroy Tesla. EVs are the future. Why because every ICE auto company has plans to come up with their own EVs.
New Thesis: Gigglefactory will never get built. Nobody has partnered with Tesla. This whole thing in Nevada is a huge Potemkin village.
New Thesis: M3 will be dead on arrival . No one will buy compact sedans. This is an SUV world.

<Oops, there are selling a lot of S and X. And Musk is pulling more Rabbits. What the heck is battery storage? Oh my GOD 450K reservations for M3??>

2016: New Thesis: Plenty of competition on battery storage. LG Chem and Chinese will kill Tesla.
New Thesis: Bolt will kill Tesla. I-Pace will kill Tesla. EV-Unicorns from BMW, Mercedes, VW, Tata, Hundai will kill Tesla
New Thesis: Each M3 will cost $70K+

<Oops,they are gaining sold ground on large scale storage implementations. None of the other guys are making more than compliance EVs>

2017: New Thesis: Cobalt will kill Tesla (you all know who was fear mongering this line with over half a dozen SA articles. He has gone silent now - the great contrarian indicator. He was the same bear that said Start/Stop will kill EVs)
New Thesis: Most M3 reservations already cancelled

<Oops, Tesla has reduced Cobalt so much it is a non-issue. Reservations seems to be holding steady>

2018 - Jan-March: Thesis change: They can never make M3 in volume
New Thesis: M3 panel gaps, panel gaps, panel gaps

<Oops, Tesla seems to be fixing production issues, and getting plenty of rave reviews with videos from owners>

2018: May-June: Thesis change: Sure M3 is a great product but you are giving a $70k product for $50K. The more you make the more you lose. Tesla will never be profitable. Bankrupt Bankrupt

<future: Oops, great profits in Q3 and Q4>

2018: <future> : Thesis change: Sure Tesla is profitable for now, but it is a one time trick. Loss of Fed credits will kill Tesla
New Thesis: No factory for Y. No money for Y. Blah Blah Blah

 

[EinSV]

@mkjayakumar LOL -- nailed it!

I would add two from 2016 --

Thesis: Model X will kill demand for Model S. No one wants to buy sedans!
Thesis: Tesla sales will dive as soon as Model X reservation line is empty!

<future: Oops, Model S remains top seller in class in U.S. and becomes top seller in class in Europe>
<future: Oops, 46,500 Model X sold in 2017 -- 50% more than pre-launch reservations>

And fearless forecast for 2018-19:

Thesis: Model Y will kill demand for Model 3. No one wants to buy sedans!
Thesis: Model 3 sales will dive as soon as reservations line is empty!

<future: Oops, Model 3 remains top seller in class in U.S. and becomes top seller in class in Europe>
<future: Oops, 500,000+ Model 3 sold in 2020>

 

[Reality]

This hurts bad


Makes no sense and hurts

 

[Reality]

you guys are making up thesis, but ok


I hope everyone is as active in this thread when reality sets in

 

[Daniellane]

Maybe it’s time to buy stock in step ladder manufacturers.
I’m guessing a lot of short-sellers will be needing them to prop up against their window sills.

 

[Chickenlittle]

This hurts bad


Makes no sense and hurts

Vaseline will help

 

[Reality]

Vaseline will help

anything would probably

 

[JoaoD]

you guys are making up thesis, but ok

Then tell us which is that great thesis that holds for so long that we are missing.

I hope everyone is as active in this thread when reality sets in

You mean the shorts? Yeah, I haven't seen them here for quite some time, you seem to be the only one left this past days, this thread used to be a lot more active.

 

[Reality]

Then tell us which is that great thesis that holds for so long that we are missing.


You mean the shorts? Yeah, I haven't seen them here for quite some time, you seem to be the only one left this past days, this thread used to be a lot more active.

basically 4 pieces

1) Tesla can't make any money producing the cars they produce, this has never been proven as untrue


2) Tesla competition will destroy them as they cant make money selling 100k+cars and no competition, how are they going to make money selling 50k cars with competition?


3) Tesla uses non standard industry practices to hide what their true financial condition is


4) Tesla has no competitive advantage in any area, they buy their batteries, their autopilot software is terrible, and they cant make cars more efficiently than the majors


It's that simple, the energy and everything else is just noise. Tesla will live and die as a car manufacturer.

 

[felipey]

basically 4 pieces

1) Tesla can't make any money producing the cars they produce, this has never been proven as untrue

Tesla made money on the S and X but reinvested every cent on growth and development. Gigafactory didn't come cheap you know... If Tesla had just sat still and never made the Model 3, it would have been profitable long ago.

2) Tesla competition will destroy them as they cant make money selling 100k+cars and no competition, how are they going to make money selling 50k cars with competition?

See above, losing money as a company and losing money on cars is completely different.

3) Tesla uses non standard industry practices to hide what their true financial condition is

Not true, their financial reportings are evaluated by the SEC and analysts and no one has claimed there's a problem.

4) Tesla has no competitive advantage in any area, they buy their batteries, their autopilot software is terrible, and they cant make cars more efficiently than the majors

They manufacture their own batteries, their autopilot software is better than anything out on the road right now, and the last one is still a work in progress...

It's that simple, the energy and everything else is just noise. Tesla will live and die as a car manufacturer.

Mod: edited to fix quoting, so I could read it... --ggr.

 

[Daniellane]

Then tell us which is that great thesis that holds for so long that we are missing.


You mean the shorts? Yeah, I haven't seen them here for quite some time, you seem to be the only one left this past days, this thread used to be a lot more active.

Probably because they had to sell their devices or they can’t get a WiFi signal from their cardboard boxes.

 

[JoaoD]

basically 4 pieces

1) Tesla can't make any money producing the cars they produce, this has never been proven as untrue


2) Tesla competition will destroy them as they cant make money selling 100k+cars and no competition, how are they going to make money selling 50k cars with competition?


3) Tesla uses non standard industry practices to hide what their true financial condition is


4) Tesla has no competitive advantage in any area, they buy their batteries, their autopilot software is terrible, and they cant make cars more efficiently than the majors


It's that simple, the energy and everything else is just noise. Tesla will live and die as a car manufacturer.

1) I suggest you learn to read a balance sheet.
2) Which competition is going to destroy Tesla? We are still waiting for the 2012 Tesla Killer. Refer to point number 1.
3) Tesla financing reports follow the same model as other companies, they are standardized.
4) So which car manufacturer produces their own batteries? Tell us which auto-manufacturer has better autopilot software available to consumers in their cars. And tell us which manufacturer can make Ev's more efficiently, with better margins and at a bigger scale.

To summarize, since when did Tesla start selling 50k cars? Since when is Autopilot software a factor in Tesla evaluation? You just proved that the bear thesis is constantly shifting and does not last since you tried to enlighten us.

 

[JoaoD]

Probably because they had to sell their devices or they can’t get a WiFi signal from their cardboard boxes.

That means they can't access their online broker and haven't been able to cover yet? Oh boy, they will have to sell that cardboard box and some

 

[Electroman]

and they cant make cars more efficiently than the majors

Totally wrong. Actually the reality (pun not intended) is the opposite.

Tesla is THE ONLY company capable of making (and selling) over 200K EVs a year at this time, which will ramp to 300k next year. None of the ICE gaints have a clue as to how to mass produce EVs and make profit. None of them can mass produce a 300 mile EV at a production cost of $28K

They simply don't have the technology, know how, supply chain and most importantly a commitment to mass produce batteries at that rate - for that price.

 

[mhan00]

Sold the shares I scooped up when TSLA hit 255. I am keeping the long position I’ve had for a long time now, but figured I’d lock in some recent profit. Since it’s in my IRA, no big capital gains tax due to the quick sale. If I was savvier about stocks I might have gotten a margin account and used short put positions to hedge, but my amateur butt isn’t comfortable doing that so I’m locking in some nice short term profit.

 

[Electroman]

you guys are making up thesis, but ok

Really? Let me introduce you to bear kingdom - SeekingAlpha.com. Maybe you are not aware of that site? You can browse through those archives and you will see a minimum of 10 articles for each bear thesis I had listed.

 

[cpa]

Sold the shares I scooped up when TSLA hit 255. I am keeping the long position I’ve had for a long time now, but figured I’d lock in some recent profit. Since it’s in my IRA, no big capital gains tax due to the quick sale. If I was savvier about stocks I might have gotten a margin account and used short put positions to hedge, but my amateur butt isn’t comfortable doing that so I’m locking in some nice short term profit.

If you ever consider short selling in your IRA, I suggest researching the subject very carefully. There are rules about "prohibited transactions" in the IRA statutes. Shorting stock crosses into the prohibited transaction rules. Anyone who does this (and whose broker permits it) will be in for a nasty surprise.

 

[Reality]

hypergrowth company fires 9% of workforce

 

[mershaw2001]

If you ever consider short selling in your IRA, I suggest researching the subject very carefully. There are rules about "prohibited transactions" in the IRA statutes. Shorting stock crosses into the prohibited transaction rules. Anyone who does this (and whose broker permits it) will be in for a nasty surprise.

I believe he was referring to shorting puts, not shorting stocks as he said "and used short put positions to hedge". How this is a hedge on a long stock position is not clear.

 

[EVMeister]

hypergrowth company fires 9% of workforce

When you ignore the context, you fail to grasp the reality of the situation. Below per the man himself:

"To ensure that Tesla is well prepared for the future, we have been undertaking a thorough reorganization of our company. As part of the reorg, we are flattening the management structure to improve communication, combining functions where sensible and trimming activities that are not vital to the success of our mission."

Your lies, spin and deceit will only get you so far. Those flames are gonna burn.