Highest production VIN in the wild

[jtpassat]

I love the hysteria in this thread. I get it. All of us reservation holders are desperate for any clues/sign/divine intervention that gives any indication of when we might be able to order. But using VINs, gauging how packed the Tesla parking lot is, etc... is just grasping at straws. Until people start to get their invites to order, just sit back and relax. There is nothing you can do to make this process go faster.

 

[gregincal]

521 was spotted on September 30 so it would have been part of the 260 units. We’ve not seen anything higher since then. I’m saying it looks like they’ve not delivered any cars since then, or at least none that rabid fans have gotten a VIN from.

They don’t deliver cars in VIN order. There certainly have been cars delivered in October, but possibly not with a higher VIN.

 

[McHoffa]

Why?

Ummm, because that means not only did they only deliver 220 by the end of September, they've only delivered at most a handful in the 3 weeks since then. Making just 260 of them by the end of September put them a full month behind schedule on the initial ramp up (100 in August, 1500 in September) and now it looks like they are almost another full month behind on starting that ramp up.

It sucks for my personal situation because if I miss getting it this year, I'll owe taxes, which means I'll use my down payment to pay the IRS, which means I will need to delay my purchase until May. I'd really rather be giving that money to Tesla this year.

It REALLY sucks for all the people with a May/June estimated delivery that will now be pushed into July or later and miss the full tax credit (unless of course Tesla REALLY messes up and they don't ramp up until March or so and don't hit 200k until Q2).

 

[McHoffa]

They don’t deliver cars in VIN order. There certainly have been cars delivered in October, but possibly not with a higher VIN.

Only a few here and there... definitely not enough to show they've ramped up to the original September goals.

 

[jelloslug]

Ummm, because that means not only did they only deliver 220 by the end of September, they've only delivered at most a handful in the 3 weeks since then. Making just 260 of them by the end of September put them a full month behind schedule on the initial ramp up (100 in August, 1500 in September) and now it looks like they are almost another full month behind on starting that ramp up.

It sucks for my personal situation because if I miss getting it this year, I'll owe taxes, which means I'll use my down payment to pay the IRS, which means I will need to delay my purchase until May. I'd really rather be giving that money to Tesla this year.

It REALLY sucks for all the people with a May/June estimated delivery that will now be pushed into July or later and miss the full tax credit (unless of course Tesla REALLY messes up and they don't ramp up until March or so and don't hit 200k until Q2).

This is all speculation at this point. Nobody has any real idea about how many cars have been made, when VIN 5XX was manufactured, how many have been produced since then, or where they are at.

 

[Runt8]

This is all speculation at this point. Nobody has any real idea about how many cars have been made, when VIN 5XX was manufactured, how many have been produced since then, or where they are at.

Unfortunately that doesn’t stop people from spewing their negative slanted theories all over the boards as if they were facts written in stone...

 

[gregincal]

When they ramp, though, and are delivering hundreds of cars per week it will be obvious. However, when that will be is anyone's guess. It could be next week, sometime next month or later.

 

[voip-ninja]

This is all speculation at this point. Nobody has any real idea about how many cars have been made, when VIN 5XX was manufactured, how many have been produced since then, or where they are at.

Not true.

Plenty of people at Tesla know. Investors who have met with Tesla have been told, by Tesla executives that the issues are supplier problems.

 

[dennis]

Meanwhile, Autotrader shows nearly 3,200 new Chevy Bolt's sitting on dealer lots, or almost 5 week's worth.

There are more than 4,700 new Bolts available on cars.com, which is a two months supply. Sort by lowest price and you will find lots with $6k-$7K discounts. That's about 20% off.

Are any of you Model 3 reservation holders tempted to cancel and buy a Bolt because of the delay? I didn't think so.

 

[Mkorpal]

They are probably into the 600's by now and they haven't been delivered/seen yet. But we know for a fact the number built is less than 1134. Until Tesla registers more VINs, that is our known cap.

I'm not checking them, but someone in the investor thread said they added another 1000 today.

 

[McHoffa]

Unfortunately that doesn’t stop people from spewing their negative slanted theories all over the boards as if they were facts written in stone...

Negative slanted theories? I'm basing it off reality of facts we know.

We know that VIN 521 was spotted September 30. We know that not a single Model 3 with a higher VIN has been confirmed in the three weeks since then, so at the very most, we have 500 Model 3s? At this point we were supposed to have 1500 made in September and then, if the ramp schedule followed an S curve, anywhere from 2000-7000 made in October. We're 12 days from the end of October and we aren't even seeing the September numbers still.

Trust me, I was VERY hopeful before the Q3 report that they were ahead of schedule, stockpiling cars and ready to unleash them to the masses as soon as software was completed, and that I'd get my car in November. Then they announced 220 deliveries, putting them at least a full month behind schedule at that point (even more now). I brought myself back down to earth. I had been telling everyone I know it would probably be November or December that I'd be getting my car. Now I'm accepting the reality that it's just not going to happen this year unless something changed big time in the next couple weeks. Even Elon said to expect the worst now, and said the first non employees (current owners) would get the configurator in 6-8 weeks (which would be November 17-December 1).

Feel free to keep telling yourself that they've ramped up production but just aren't delivering them, hiding them away in a warehouse or something, but I am pretty sure if they were making them, they would be delivering ASAP to get paid for them to get investors off their backs and to get some good press.

Show me a picture of VIN 1000+ in the wild and I might start to get excited again

 

[N5329K]

As Tesla founder Martin Eberhard likes to say, "Software is easy. Cars are hard."
Robin

 

[Garlan Garner]

This is all speculation at this point. Nobody has any real idea about how many cars have been made, when VIN 5XX was manufactured, how many have been produced since then, or where they are at.

Tesla has the real numbers and they told us about them. They told us that a little over 200 cars have been made.

NOW.....about bad news.

If bad news = truth....then that's just what it is.

There at those out in the world that believe that the truth is selectable or adjustable and always has to be good news. These types of people are totally undependable.

When the assembly line was moving this thread is relevant. Now that Tesla has revealed the truth, then its not that interesting.

There should be a poll here that asks the questions: Do you want the truth ( even when its bad ) or do you only want to hear good news ( even when its not the truth )?

 

[jelloslug]

Not true.

Plenty of people at Tesla know. Investors who have met with Tesla have been told, by Tesla executives that the issues are supplier problems.

That's a lot "I heard this" and "so and so said that".

 

[jelloslug]

Tesla has the real numbers and they told us about them. They told us that a little over 200 cars have been made.

NOW.....about bad news.

If bad news = truth....then that's just what it is.

There at those out in the world that believe that the truth is selectable or adjustable and always has to be good news. These types of people are totally undependable.

When the assembly line was moving this thread is relevant. Now that Tesla has revealed the truth, then its not that interesting.

There should be a poll here that asks the questions: Do you want the truth ( even when its bad ) or do you only want to hear good news ( even when its not the truth )?

Exactly. Until there are facts, good or bad, everything else is speculation.

 

[tomas]

As Tesla founder Martin Eberhard likes to say, "Software is easy. Cars are hard."
Robin

That’s funny, what if the hold up is software?

 

[tomas]

That's a lot "I heard this" and "so and so said that".

Yep. People act as if there’s something scientific about this thread. I have no faith that it is or is not even close on reporting highest VIN. It is just another of many anecdotal data points.

 

[bro1999]

I'm not sure why people are disagreeing with my last post.
Are you disagreeing with the 3,005 deliveries Oppenheimer forecast for 2017?
Surely you're not disagreeing with the quote of Elon saying he was shooting for 100-200k 3's produced in 2017? I'm confused.

 

[techmaven]

Are you disagreeing with the 3,005 deliveries Oppenheimer forecast for 2017?

There's a big difference between Oppenheimer forecasting 3,005 deliveries of the Model 3 in 2017 and going around saying that means Tesla is going to deliver 3,005 Model 3's in 2017. There are forecasts all over the place. And many of them have particular reasons for choosing their numbers, and accuracy is only one amongst many reasons to choose a number for forecasting.

You on, the other hand, keep touting that number like it is the truth on the number to be delivered in 2017, here and on other sites.

 

[Zaphod]

Negative slanted theories? I'm basing it off reality of facts we know.

We know that VIN 521 was spotted September 30. We know that not a single Model 3 with a higher VIN has been confirmed in the three weeks since then, so at the very most, we have 500 Model 3s? At this point we were supposed to have 1500 made in September and then, if the ramp schedule followed an S curve, anywhere from 2000-7000 made in October. We're 12 days from the end of October and we aren't even seeing the September numbers still.

Trust me, I was VERY hopeful before the Q3 report that they were ahead of schedule, stockpiling cars and ready to unleash them to the masses as soon as software was completed, and that I'd get my car in November. Then they announced 220 deliveries, putting them at least a full month behind schedule at that point (even more now). I brought myself back down to earth. I had been telling everyone I know it would probably be November or December that I'd be getting my car. Now I'm accepting the reality that it's just not going to happen this year unless something changed big time in the next couple weeks. Even Elon said to expect the worst now, and said the first non employees (current owners) would get the configurator in 6-8 weeks (which would be November 17-December 1).

Feel free to keep telling yourself that they've ramped up production but just aren't delivering them, hiding them away in a warehouse or something, but I am pretty sure if they were making them, they would be delivering ASAP to get paid for them to get investors off their backs and to get some good press.

Show me a picture of VIN 1000+ in the wild and I might start to get excited again

As an East coast, non-owner, did you realistically think you would have delivery before the end of year? What does your estimate currently say?