Highest production VIN in the wild

[Garlan Garner]

Oh, I see. Someone wrote something on the internet and that makes it “truth”? The weld theory is unsubstantiated. As is the prior “supplier” theory. Fact is we don’t know cause. But I’d be shocked if they don’t wind up several months late before everything is sorted out. That’s opinion, not “truth” though.

Oh I see.

All these people such as "The wall Street Journal" and "Reuters" and such shouldn't read TWEETS and such as truth....even though it comes from CEO's and other leaders in the country who pose this information as truth? When Elon posts something like - robots making cars at 10% the speed of something.....lets write that off as fake news because "HE posted it on the internet or social media".

I see. What should leaders do? Should they go back and start chiseling out stone? Oh, I see.

 

[jtpassat]

here you go

Tesla Model 3: another ~1,000 VINs are registered with NHTSA

another 1,000 VINS registered

 

[Zaphod]

I'm not an employee or owner and have the same delivery estimate. Nov - Jan. This is why I stood in line.

I didn't stand in line due to wok obligations, but reserved before the actual reveal happened. My estimate is Dec-Feb. I can live with extra month in hopes of improved build quality and/or additional options to select from.

 

[tomas]

Oh I see.

All these people such as "The wall Street Journal" and "Reuters" and such shouldn't read TWEETS and such as truth....even though it comes from CEO's and other leaders in the country who pose this information as truth? When Elon posts something like - robots making cars at 10% the speed of something.....lets write that off as fake news because "HE posted it on the internet or social media".

I see. What should leaders do? Should they go back and start chiseling out stone? Oh, I see.

I’m amazed I’ve got to say this. Perhaps two decades ago, print stories from reputable sources such as WSJ and Reuters and Forbes always had research, review, and editors behind them. It wasn’t always truth, but some checkpoints that gave high truth quotient. Nowadays, with rise of online news and pay by click advertising, they only give this attention to a small number of stories, but pay a ton of stringers to post profitable click bait that gets little review. Pair that with a high valuation high growth company with sexy product and high profile CEO whose primary advertising is via tweet? Explosive cocktail for conjecture under banner of once reputable news publishers.

Corporate statements outside of formal quarterly reports: always look for the weasel words. That’s not just Tesla... it is universal.

You’ve got to use a filter and require multiple data points before believing nowadays. I personally don’t need any of this for the 3. Given repeated track record with Tesla, I’m confident it will come out in stated volumes. But late. My guess: 3 months +/-2. Take that with grain of salt. Everyone welcome to own opinion but Let’s not try to bill it as “truth” on basis of marketing tweets or online media conjecture.

 

[Electric700]

So what's the highest VIN anyone has seen so far? Hopefully Tesla has exceeded the 1000 mark

 

[bro1999]

So what's the highest VIN anyone has seen so far? Hopefully Tesla has exceeded the 1000 mark

I believe we're still stuck on 521.

 

[ohmman]

mod notes:
23 posts moved to snippiness in an effort to clean this thread up. Not all were snippy but they were part of the conversation chain and would be loose ends, so I moved them.
12 posts moved to Bolt ramp vs. Model 3 ramp

Civilized adult discourse, please.

 

[dgpcolorado]

Non employee, not current owner, but about #20 in line to reserve at Charlotte NC location.

As far as I know, everyone that stood in line and is a non owner got that date range.

Since it is quite clear that the production is delayed, Tesla really ought to revisit those estimates. My estimate is still October to December 2017 for "First Production", which is increasingly unlikely.

 

[voip-ninja]

Since it is quite clear that the production is delayed, Tesla really ought to revisit those estimates. My estimate is still October to December 2017 for "First Production", which is increasingly unlikely.

Damned if they do and damned if they don't. My prediction is they will delay updating them until the very end of the window is looming and they have a better handle on new windows.

 

[smak]

Because the highest VIN is 521, but they only produced 1/2 that, the next cars Tesla produces should be those below 521 that hadn't been delivered.

And if we saw a vin #434 we wouldn't really know if it was finished 6 weeks ago, or yesterday.

So it will be a little longer than you'd think to see a car over 521.

 

[Dynastar]

I’m amazed I’ve got to say this. Perhaps two decades ago, print stories from reputable sources such as WSJ and Reuters and Forbes always had research, review, and editors behind them. It wasn’t always truth, but some checkpoints that gave high truth quotient. Nowadays, with rise of online news and pay by click advertising, they only give this attention to a small number of stories, but pay a ton of stringers to post profitable click bait that gets little review.

I don't think this is true, but rather it's that you know a lot about Tesla and so it's easy to see the mistakes that media makes. There's a law blog that I follow that is constantly critical of how the media covers the first amendment. They often say something to the effect of "the media does a terrible job of covering the things I know a lot about, but I'm sure they do a great job with everything else."

 

[Mkorpal]

Because the highest VIN is 521, but they only produced 1/2 that, the next cars Tesla produces should be those below 521 that hadn't been delivered.

And if we saw a vin #434 we wouldn't really know if it was finished 6 weeks ago, or yesterday.

So it will be a little longer than you'd think to see a car over 521.

Maybe, maybe not. My theory is that they have a lot of cars "in production" but sitting, waiting on something from this late supplier we heard about. When whatever it is that they are waiting on finally gets delivered, maybe they get those cars in storage going, or maybe they get the line running and mix those cars in storage slowly in.

 

[tomas]

mod notes:
23 posts moved to snippiness in an effort to clean this thread up. Not all were snippy but they were part of the conversation chain and would be loose ends, so I moved them.
12 posts moved to Bolt ramp vs. Model 3 ramp

Civilized adult discourse, please.

While I accept your right to move them, it seemed to me that many were using the info posted in this thread, which is incomplete info at best, to fuel angst or interpret in other ways — which IMO does merit some discussion. I will not post further in thread, but I suspect it will veer off again because so many people are on pins and needles, plus a few just always want to stick a needle in

 

[X Fan]

Maybe, maybe not. My theory is that they have a lot of cars "in production" but sitting, waiting on something from this late supplier we heard about. When whatever it is that they are waiting on finally gets delivered, maybe they get those cars in storage going, or maybe they get the line running and mix those cars in storage slowly in.

"My theory is that they have a lot of cars "in production" but sitting,"

I hope not...lots of horror stories re: early Model X's that had rust, other environmental damage to glass, etc. from the "sittees".

 

[SageBrush]

it seemed to me that many were using the info posted in this thread, which is incomplete info at best, to fuel angst or interpret in other ways — which IMO does merit some discussion.

Sure --- in a different thread.

Let's leave this one for VIN sightings

 

[smak]

I don't think this is true, but rather it's that you know a lot about Tesla and so it's easy to see the mistakes that media makes. There's a law blog that I follow that is constantly critical of how the media covers the first amendment. They often say something to the effect of "the media does a terrible job of covering the things I know a lot about, but I'm sure they do a great job with everything else."

I look at the iPhone stock app a few times a day to see the Tesla headlines, and some of them are downright nasty.

 

[BobbyKings]

Glimpse of progress?

Tesla Model 3: another ~1,000 VINs are registered with NHTSA

 

[avoigt]

Its an indication not more and not less but I ask myself why they would register them if still other VINs are available. I believe they have all hands full and no time for not required work. EM likely would fire people personally (like Steve Jobs did) who do stuff that does not help to get cars produced.

The only conclusion available is that they used all the numbers they had already and need more. Can't think about any other reason - but maybe smarter people than me here know better.

That supports my theory that through testing and calibrating the production line and solving the bottle necks they produced cars which are stored somewhere nearly to be finished. Why stored? Well, otherwise we would have seen numbers about 521 for sure but we did not.

This half finished ones may wait for essential parts suppliers are responsible for and who are fighting with tooling as we speak. The later is what they confirmed during that Dinner (supplier bottle necks). Once that supplier bottle neck is solved they may finished this cars and phase them in the production line and deliver.

Just my prediction and maybe later proven to be wrong....

 

[N5329K]

Its an indication not more and not less but I ask myself why they would register them if still other VINs are available. I believe they have all hands full and no time for not required work. EM likely would fire people personally (like Steve Jobs did) who do stuff that does not help to get cars produced.

The only conclusion available is that they used all the numbers they had already and need more. Can't think about any other reason - but maybe smarter people than me here know better.

That supports my theory that through testing and calibrating the production line and solving the bottle necks they produced cars which are stored somewhere nearly to be finished. Why stored? Well, otherwise we would have seen numbers about 521 for sure but we did not.

This half finished ones may wait for essential parts suppliers are responsible for and who are fighting with tooling as we speak. The later is what they confirmed during that Dinner (supplier bottle necks). Once that supplier bottle neck is solved they may finished this cars and phase them in the production line and deliver.

Just my prediction and maybe later proven to be wrong....

When GM ran the Fremont factory, they pushed new cars that were built wrong, or with missing parts, cars that wouldn't even start, out into a big parking lot for workers to fix, or try to fix. It was more important to them to keep the line moving than to actually build a quality (or even working) car.
Robin

 

[suwaneedad]

I expect we will get production updates and estimated delivery updates as part of the November 1 Q3 earnings release and commentary. Doing so beforehand just creates stock price noise, and I'm sure Elon wants to use the rest of October to see that production ramp improve as much as possible before he takes the microphone on 11/1 to talk about how things are going. From there, website updates of estimated delivery dates for reservation holders should flow soon thereafter.