siggyfreud
Member
Probably a stupid question, but I just went back through this thread and couldn't find 'Troy's Chart' .. Where is it? Can you possibly link to it here?
Thanks.
Model 3 delivery estimator
You can install our site as a web app on your iOS device by utilizing the Add to Home Screen feature in Safari. Please see this thread for more details on this.
Note: This feature may not be available in some browsers.
Probably a stupid question, but I just went back through this thread and couldn't find 'Troy's Chart' .. Where is it? Can you possibly link to it here?
Thanks.
Ummm seriously only VIN 515 to October 19th???? This is really bad news guys...we should be well into the thousands by now. Anyone else concerned as a stock holder? At this pace Tesla will barely make 500 Model 3 in October (seeing as we ended Sept at VIN 260)...not looking good to hitting 5000 per week by end of the year...currently at about 125 per week it seems...still need to increase production rates by 40x!
They are probably into the 600's by now and they haven't been delivered/seen yet. But we know for a fact the number built is less than 1134. Until Tesla registers more VINs, that is our known cap.I have to hope that people out there just aren't looking that hard for VIN numbers on every Model 3 that they see.
Guys we need the data...if you see a Model 3 out there...anywhere...try to get the VIN number and report back here please!
Thanks Chewy...so I'm guessing that someone here has reservation number 1134 in California and they don't yet have their car? Is this what you are going off of? Why 1134?But we know for a fact the number built is less than 1134. Until Tesla registers more VINs, that is our known cap.
Assumption is that it is an EM joke. 1134 upside down on a 7-segment display spells HEII ... the assumption is that it refers to 'production hell'.Thanks Chewy...so I'm guessing that someone here has reservation number 1134 in California and they don't yet have their car? Is this what you are going off of? Why 1134?
Thanks Chewy...so I'm guessing that someone here has reservation number 1134 in California and they don't yet have their car? Is this what you are going off of? Why 1134?
A VIN on the street is weeks and weeks behind the actual production date. People are getting all worked up about nothing.Ummm seriously only VIN 515 to October 19th???? This is really bad news guys...we should be well into the thousands by now. Anyone else concerned as a stock holder? At this pace Tesla will barely make 500 Model 3 in October (seeing as we ended Sept at VIN 260)...not looking good to hitting 5000 per week by end of the year...currently at about 125 per week it seems...still need to increase production rates by 40x!
I get that but if we also know when the person received their car this will give us a general idea on the production ramp. I like Chewy's work above with the VIN watch on NHTSA...best method I've seen yet.A VIN on the street is weeks and weeks behind the actual production date. People are getting all worked up about nothing.
Oppenheimer has a forecast of 3,005 Model 3s delivered this year. Sounds like even that may be optimistic.
The 100-200k Elon said was possible for 2017 last year sure seems like a pipedream now.
You keep pumping this all over like a SeekingAlpha poster. If you read the entire transcript of what he was saying during that conference call, he was talking about production rate. 5k/week is well over 200,000/year production rate, which is still the target for 2017. This has been discussed ad nauseum in the investor threads here and elsewhere and subsequent guidance by Tesla and Musk have clarified the situation.
Meanwhile, Autotrader shows nearly 3,200 new Chevy Bolt's sitting on dealer lots, or almost 5 week's worth.
VIN 521 was spotted on September 30 and that’s still the highest one spotted almost three weeks later now.Ummm seriously only VIN 515 to October 19th???? This is really bad news guys...we should be well into the thousands by now. Anyone else concerned as a stock holder? At this pace Tesla will barely make 500 Model 3 in October (seeing as we ended Sept at VIN 260)...not looking good to hitting 5000 per week by end of the year...currently at about 125 per week it seems...still need to increase production rates by 40x!
VIN 521 was spotted on September 30 and that’s still the highest one spotted almost three weeks later now.
454 was delivered the previous week as well. They’re obviously not in order (or a bunch of them aren’t making the cut for delivery).
I’m not a stockholder but I’m definitely concerned because every week looks more and more like I won’t take delivery this year.
If they were just a month behind schedule we’d see 1500 new VIN numbers by the end of this month (what they originally planned on making in September). It’s looking like we won’t see the 1500 production number until November now, or two months behind schedule, at the very least.
Right, but since we’ve not seen a VIN higher than 521 since it was spotted September 30 it’s a little disconcerting.A VIN on the street is weeks and weeks behind the actual production date. People are getting all worked up about nothing.
521 was spotted on September 30 so it would have been part of the 260 units. We’ve not seen anything higher since then. I’m saying it looks like they’ve not delivered any cars since then, or at least none that rabid fans have gotten a VIN from.I believe it was stated that a lot of 300 VINs were used for the release candidates, so being at 521 doesn't necessarily mean that another 300 units were delivered since 30 Sep (as Tesla announced 220 3's were "delivered" in their Q3 report).
Why?Right, but since we’ve not seen a VIN higher than 521 since it was spotted September 30 it’s a little disconcerting.
If you were hitting 100k-200k/year production rates, you are sure as hell delivering more than 3,005 units in a year. Hopefully Tesla works out the non "fundamental" supply chain issues (since suppliers not supplying parts and getting fired is evidently not a "fundamental issue") to keep those reservation holder eyeballs from wandering.
As for the Bolt, 5 weeks of supply is actually well under the max industry-desired 8-9 week figure, so thanks for pointing out that GM is managing Bolt stock quite well.
I believe it was stated that a lot of 300 VINs were used for the release candidates, so being at 521 doesn't necessarily mean that another 300 units were delivered since 30 Sep (as Tesla announced 220 3's were "delivered" in their Q3 report).