Wiki Model 3 delivery estimator

[Wiki]

Hi,
Check out this tool I created:

Tesla Model 3 Delivery Estimator

Here is a screenshot:

How it works:
Step 1: You enter your exact reservation time and the sheet calculates a global reservation number. Let's say you entered 31st March 2016, 08:00. Your reservation number would be 1 because that's when first stores opened (although most stores opened at 10am). If you enter 9:00pm, your global reservation number will be 115,000 because at 9pm Elon announced on stage that reservations had reached 115,000 units.

Of course, the reservations moved at different speeds during the day on the 31st. For example, most stores opened at 10am and there were already long lines in front of stores. Therefore reservations would be highest between 10:00-12:30. Also when online reservations opened at 19:30, reservations would be high too. Therefore I divided the 31st to different time slices, as follows:

time / reservations
31 Mar 2016 08:00 1
31 Mar 2016 10:00 500
31 Mar 2016 12:30 44000
31 Mar 2016 15:30 75000
31 Mar 2016 19:30 85000
31 Mar 2016 21:00 115000
31 Mar 2016 23:59 133000

Using this data, it is possible to calculate a reservation number for any specific time.

In total, there were 9 different reservation counts at different times, published by Tesla or other sources. You can find these HERE. All these numbers are used when calculating your global reservation number.

Step 2: After that, your global reservation number is converted to a country reservation number. This is based on Tesla sales numbers in different countries. For example, 5% of Tesla's global sales are in the UK, therefore the assumption is 5% of Model 3 reservations will be from the UK too. The data source I used to calculate these percentages is THIS page.

Step 3: Transit times from the factory to different locations is known data. I used THIS spreadsheet from the Model S delivery tracker topic.

◘ Delivery start times in different regions have been calculated based on Model X data. This data can be found on Data1 tab columns F to K.
◘ To calculate Tesla owners among Model 3 reservation holders, I used the 7% number Tesla gave during a conference call. These kind data sources can be found on Data1!AG:AH.

 

[ModelNforNerd]

pretty cool, but doesn't take into account the "well-optioned" models being produced first.

 

[Troy]

@ModelNforNerd,
I agree. I should add that too. Yesterday, I searched for that and found the data source HERE. But I'm not sure how to implement it. Can you comment on what kind of delays you would expect for different trim levels? For example, how does this look like:

Model / Delays in days
Model 3 P75D / 0 days
Model 3 75D / 14 days
Model 3 55D / 28 days
Model 3 55 / 28 days

 

[melindav]

I believe the current tesla owners will have priority within each region's deliveries, not all delivered first.
so maybe something like 8k for west coast, 3k mountain, 2k central, 3k eastern, 4k Euro, 500 Asia, 500 pacific, etc... (just totally guessing on ratio)

 

[ecarfan]

I would describe your tool as a "very approximate educated guess estimator". You are making a large number of educated guesses and a number of assumptions to come up with your "estimate".

Model 3 reservation holders should not place to much stock in the "estimate" provided by this tool. Tesla will make internal decisions about who gets their car when, decisions that people outside the company have zero visibility into.

Nevertheless, I predict that some people will use this tool and then get upset when they don't get their Model 3 on the "estimated" date.

Carry on...

 

[Troy]

@melindav, it already works like this. The 21,053 numbers is for the entire USA. The global number is 36,449 Tesla owners on 1 Sep 2017 when Model 3 production starts. You might say, shouldn't it be just 7%? Isn't 36,449 a little too high? No, because 7% is the percentage of reservation holders who have a Tesla. Tesla mentioned the 7% on 4 May 2016 earnings call. At that time global reservations were 359,445 units. 7% of that is 25,161 people.

On 4 May 2016, Tesla's global fleet was 129,980 units. In other words, out of 129,980 Tesla owners, 25,161 had placed a Model 3 reservation. That's 19.4%. On 1 Sep 2017, when Model 3 production starts, Tesla's global fleet will be 271,077 units and I calculated that 36,449 of those will be Model 3 reservation holders.

 

[anhnguyen]

...looks awesome!!!

 

[BluestarE3]

Nevertheless, I predict that some people will use this tool and then get upset when they don't get their Model 3 on the "estimated" date.

I was thinking the same thing. Maybe there should be a prominent disclaimer stating that this tool is not affiliated with Tesla and that the estimates should not be assumed to be guaranteed or even approximate dates for delivery. And that the tool is meant to be used for entertainment/recreational purposes only.

 

[tsla007]

high optioned models will not be made first!!!!!!!!!!! Elon has said this many times. Doesn't matter if it is base model or loaded.
It will be by 'reservation lots'. Location is not most important-when is most important. All pre-unveil orders will be fulfilled first regardless of location. I've posted this many times before but few listen even though I presented Elon twitter facts.
It's highly likely:
All preunveil west coast will be first
Then N
Then S
Then E (great for me by that time all the bugs will be worked out before I get mine)

followed up with post unveiled orders:
bundles of cars based on when you ordered-not what you ordered. (confirmed by Elon tweet)

So if the above model isn't programmed right you will get a false final result. Don't count on this calculator.
And if a Tesla owner ordered after unveil they don't get bumped in front of someone who ordered pre unveil. Also, twitter confirmed.

 

[tsla007]

I know my production number as it was posted in my webpage-I was smart enough to copy it (source code) before the tesla web dev dudes change it.

I don't need to do any guessing-I'm a patient man. I like this attempt for those that have no clue, but the math is definitely off.

 

[BluestarE3]

So if the above model isn't programmed right you will get a false final result.

That's precisely the problem though... we don't know what's "right". We can't even agree on what factors will have an impact on sequence, let alone how much weight to assign to each of these assumed factors or the order in which these assumed factors will be applied.

 

[Troy]

the math is definitely off.

Hi. How about writing the date the estimator shows and the date you estimate and then we can look back and see who was more accurate?

 

[Troy]

Hi, everybody. I decided to make a new feature out of what I said to tsla007. There is now a tab called "Survey" where you can enter your own estimate and fill out the same information as before and the tool will display the calculated delivery estimate next to yours.

 

[shrspeedblade]

Probably as good if not a better way to make an estimated guess as any!
Not sure I'll be doing a "75D", but I'll be optimistic and late January 2018 doesn't sound bad at all!

 

[ecarfan]

Maybe there should be a prominent disclaimer stating that this tool is not affiliated with Tesla and that the estimates should not be assumed to be guaranteed or even approximate dates for delivery. And that the tool is meant to be used for entertainment/recreational purposes only.

To me it doesn't even qualify as "entertainment", but I like your proposal.

 

[BluestarE3]

To me it doesn't even qualify as "entertainment", but I like your proposal.

Would you prefer "masochism" instead?

 

[FirstSea]

Wait, is delivery location the same as reservation location?

Fairly sure some people drove to CA to reserve, but intend to receive the car in their home state...

This might affect the delivery date too, you reserved in CA, but live in AZ.

 

[Troy]

@FirstSea,
In Step 1, you need to select delivery location like it says. The reason it asks for delivery location is because Tesla said the following in a blog post:

"we will begin deliveries in North America starting on the West Coast, moving east. As we continue to ramp production, we will begin deliveries in Europe, APAC and right-hand drive markets." Source

The calculator considers all these details.

Your reservation location is not relevant just like it was irrelevant for online orders. In Tesla stores, they use a normal Internet-connected computer to access the Tesla website.

 

[Sharkbait]

All preunveil west coast will be first
Then N
Then S
Then E (great for me by that time all the bugs will be worked out before I get mine)

So maybe as a new "S" owner this coming Friday, maybe I should also defer my one time chance to defer my delivery to avoid bugs? I ordered early on 1 April and my configuration will be fairly loaded. I live in L.A. burbs. Does that bump me up? I might enjoy the "S" so much, I will find no reason to purchase the "3", given I also know what the Model 3 options will cost. I really would enjoy something like a PXXDL at the right price-point.

 

[VIKING26]

Feb 21st 2018 for me. I was expecting later, but I hope it is right.