Hi, Check out this tool I created: Tesla Model 3 Delivery Estimator Here is a screenshot: How it works: Step 1: You enter your exact reservation time and the sheet calculates a global reservation number. Let's say you entered 31st March 2016, 08:00. Your reservation number would be 1 because that's when first stores opened (although most stores opened at 10am). If you enter 9:00pm, your global reservation number will be 115,000 because at 9pm Elon announced on stage that reservations had reached 115,000 units. Of course, the reservations moved at different speeds during the day on the 31st. For example, most stores opened at 10am and there were already long lines in front of stores. Therefore reservations would be highest between 10:00-12:30. Also when online reservations opened at 19:30, reservations would be high too. Therefore I divided the 31st to different time slices, as follows: time / reservations 31 Mar 2016 08:00 1 31 Mar 2016 10:00 500 31 Mar 2016 12:30 44000 31 Mar 2016 15:30 75000 31 Mar 2016 19:30 85000 31 Mar 2016 21:00 115000 31 Mar 2016 23:59 133000 Using this data, it is possible to calculate a reservation number for any specific time. In total, there were 9 different reservation counts at different times, published by Tesla or other sources. You can find these HERE. All these numbers are used when calculating your global reservation number. Step 2: After that, your global reservation number is converted to a country reservation number. This is based on Tesla sales numbers in different countries. For example, 5% of Tesla's global sales are in the UK, therefore the assumption is 5% of Model 3 reservations will be from the UK too. The data source I used to calculate these percentages is THIS page. Step 3: Transit times from the factory to different locations is known data. I used THIS spreadsheet from the Model S delivery tracker topic. ◘ Delivery start times in different regions have been calculated based on Model X data. This data can be found on Data1 tab columns F to K. ◘ To calculate Tesla owners among Model 3 reservation holders, I used the 7% number Tesla gave during a conference call. These kind data sources can be found on Data1!AG:AH.