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Highest production VIN in the wild
- Thread starter insaneoctane
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- Model 3
Ummm seriously only VIN 515 to October 19th???? This is really bad news guys...we should be well into the thousands by now. Anyone else concerned as a stock holder? At this pace Tesla will barely make 500 Model 3 in October (seeing as we ended Sept at VIN 260)...not looking good to hitting 5000 per week by end of the year...currently at about 125 per week it seems...still need to increase production rates by 40x! 
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Ummm seriously only VIN 515 to October 19th???? This is really bad news guys...we should be well into the thousands by now. Anyone else concerned as a stock holder? At this pace Tesla will barely make 500 Model 3 in October (seeing as we ended Sept at VIN 260)...not looking good to hitting 5000 per week by end of the year...currently at about 125 per week it seems...still need to increase production rates by 40x!
Oppenheimer has a forecast of 3,005 Model 3s delivered this year. Sounds like even that may be optimistic.
The 100-200k Elon said was possible for 2017 last year sure seems like a pipedream now.
Thanks Chewy...so I'm guessing that someone here has reservation number 1134 in California and they don't yet have their car? Is this what you are going off of? Why 1134?
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3Victoria
Active Member
Assumption is that it is an EM joke. 1134 upside down on a 7-segment display spells HEII ... the assumption is that it refers to 'production hell'.
Also, someone noted that 1135 spells SEll, so maybe that will be the sign that things are ramping.
I should I linked to the other threads about this in my previous post. Other members started plugging VINs into the NHTSA to see how high Tesla had already registered VIN #s. (Keep in mind, this is before they are even assigned to a car, person, build, anything). The highest one thus far is 1134. I currently have a bookmark for 1135 and periodically check it to see when they register for more VINs
1134: Recalls
vs 1135: Recalls
jelloslug
Active Member
A VIN on the street is weeks and weeks behind the actual production date. People are getting all worked up about nothing.Ummm seriously only VIN 515 to October 19th???? This is really bad news guys...we should be well into the thousands by now. Anyone else concerned as a stock holder? At this pace Tesla will barely make 500 Model 3 in October (seeing as we ended Sept at VIN 260)...not looking good to hitting 5000 per week by end of the year...currently at about 125 per week it seems...still need to increase production rates by 40x!
I get that but if we also know when the person received their car this will give us a general idea on the production ramp. I like Chewy's work above with the VIN watch on NHTSA...best method I've seen yet.
You keep pumping this all over like a SeekingAlpha poster. If you read the entire transcript of what he was saying during that conference call, he was talking about production rate. 5k/week is well over 200,000/year production rate, which is still the target for 2017. This has been discussed ad nauseum in the investor threads here and elsewhere and subsequent guidance by Tesla and Musk have clarified the situation.
Meanwhile, Autotrader shows nearly 3,200 new Chevy Bolt's sitting on dealer lots, or almost 5 week's worth.
If you were hitting 100k-200k/year production rates, you are sure as hell delivering more than 3,005 units in a year. Hopefully Tesla works out the non "fundamental" supply chain issues (since suppliers not supplying parts and getting fired is evidently not a "fundamental issue") to keep those reservation holder eyeballs from wandering.
As for the Bolt, 5 weeks of supply is actually well under the max industry-desired 8-9 week figure, so thanks for pointing out that GM is managing Bolt stock quite well.
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McHoffa
CyberOwners
VIN 521 was spotted on September 30 and that’s still the highest one spotted almost three weeks later now.Ummm seriously only VIN 515 to October 19th???? This is really bad news guys...we should be well into the thousands by now. Anyone else concerned as a stock holder? At this pace Tesla will barely make 500 Model 3 in October (seeing as we ended Sept at VIN 260)...not looking good to hitting 5000 per week by end of the year...currently at about 125 per week it seems...still need to increase production rates by 40x!
454 was delivered the previous week as well. They’re obviously not in order (or a bunch of them aren’t making the cut for delivery).
I’m not a stockholder but I’m definitely concerned because every week looks more and more like I won’t take delivery this year.
If they were just a month behind schedule we’d see 1500 new VIN numbers by the end of this month (what they originally planned on making in September). It’s looking like we won’t see the 1500 production number until November now, or two months behind schedule, at the very least.
I believe it was stated that a lot of 300 VINs were used for the release candidates, so being at 521 doesn't necessarily mean that another 300 units were delivered since 30 Sep (as Tesla announced 220 3's were "delivered" in their Q3 report).
McHoffa
CyberOwners
Right, but since we’ve not seen a VIN higher than 521 since it was spotted September 30 it’s a little disconcerting.
McHoffa
CyberOwners
521 was spotted on September 30 so it would have been part of the 260 units. We’ve not seen anything higher since then. I’m saying it looks like they’ve not delivered any cars since then, or at least none that rabid fans have gotten a VIN from.
jelloslug
Active Member
Given what the Bolt was supposed to represent, any stock at all beyond required for logistics is not a good thing, especially selling at such low volumes. It hasn't outsold the Toyota Prius Prime this year which also arrived at roughly the same time. It hasn't outsold the Model X this year in the U.S., even though the ASP of the Model X is nearly 3x higher. The biggest problem with such a low selling rate is that it doesn't lend towards a strong argument in the board rooms of major automakers to accelerate the production of EVs. The allocations are still going to be small as is the investments into battery cell production. So no, there is no getting around the disappointment around the sales of the Bolt. Of course, one can argue that GM sabotaged the Bolt from the outset in various ways.
Definitely at least two of the low 300's VINs were delivered to customers. Likely Tesla built about 400-500, but re-work had to be done so they only claimed 260. As for comparing Tesla against major automakers, remember that the Ford Escape went through at least 6 recalls of the new at the time Ecoboost powered version in the first 18 months:
https://jalopnik.com/ford-recalls-ford-escape-for-sixth-time-in-18-months-ov-1471855972
