Highest production VIN in the wild

[jstoneman]

BRUTAL conference call yesterday and stock reaction today. Now the reason for the lack of new VINS comes into clear focus. Here's a question that I SWEAR is related. Do you run parts of production line and stockpile unfinished components and wait for the battery modules to be finished? What are the pros and cons of having part of the line going? The battery is just a quick install at the very bottom of the car right, so in theory you could finish all the way through the interior and even wheels and then slam the battery on at the very end. Does anybody think the Battery module is the ONLY part of the puzzle that isn't solved? I hope they get it worked out. It is sure exciting to watch.

 

[smartypnz]

Post and pic of 420 in

Pictures of production Model 3s

 

[Pinot.Noir]

I heard from my railroad source today. The expected 2000 Model 3's a week for the mid west in late November has been moved to 1st Quarter 2018. Even Tesla negotiates with unrealistic expectations. Sad.

 

[3Victoria]

I heard from my railroad source today. The expected 2000 Model 3's a week for the mid west in late November has been moved to 1st Quarter 2018. Even Tesla negotiates with unrealistic expectations. Sad.

I think this shows that Tesla was blindsided by the battery pack glitch.

 

[ElecFan]

BRUTAL conference call yesterday and stock reaction today. Now the reason for the lack of new VINS comes into clear focus. Here's a question that I SWEAR is related. Do you run parts of production line and stockpile unfinished components and wait for the battery modules to be finished? What are the pros and cons of having part of the line going? The battery is just a quick install at the very bottom of the car right, so in theory you could finish all the way through the interior and even wheels and then slam the battery on at the very end. Does anybody think the Battery module is the ONLY part of the puzzle that isn't solved? I hope they get it worked out. It is sure exciting to watch.

This has been exactly my line of reasoning. Why not build all cars and only click the battery on when it's ready? Then only the speed with which the battery can be manufactured is limiting for the overall rate of M3s.
Maybe they've done just that, because Elon's videos show us M3 are manufactured but not delivered. Stockpiling is the only reasonable alternative, or is it?

 

[Garlan Garner]

I think this shows that Tesla was blindsided by the battery pack glitch.

How can they be blindsided by their own manufacturing process? This is not their first car.

 

[30seconds]

They were having problems with then 100kwh packs for the S and X for a while as well.

Not sure what’s going on up there

 

[ElecFan]

How can they be blindsided by their own manufacturing process? This is not their first car.

New type of battery?

 

[avoigt]

This has been exactly my line of reasoning. Why not build all cars and only click the battery on when it's ready? Then only the speed with which the battery can be manufactured is limiting for the overall rate of M3s.
Maybe they've done just that, because Elon's videos show us M3 are manufactured but not delivered. Stockpiling is the only reasonable alternative, or is it?

#1: There is a certain sequence of assembly that you can't change for technical reasons.
#2: There is no space beside the production line due to hight robot automation to take cars to the side and bypass a step

Thats the price you pay for the unprecedented output of 3 times the other lines they plan for.

This is very different than any other assembly line and automaker production. I would not be surprised if the line is not running at all most of the time right now until they fix the issues.

 

[dennis]

They were having problems with then 100kwh packs for the S and X for a while as well.

Not sure what’s going on up there

Completely unrelated. The automated line for M3 battery modules is newly designed equipment.

 

[ElecFan]

#1: There is a certain sequence of assembly that you can't change for technical reasons.
#2: There is no space beside the production line due to hight robot automation to take cars to the side and bypass a step

Thats the price you pay for the unprecedented output of 3 times the other lines they plan for.

This is very different than any other assembly line and automaker production. I would not be surprised if the line is not running at all most of the time right now until they fix the issues.

Wouldn't the battery be the last step? I've seen a video in which EM showed how a model S(?) battery was taken off and a new one clicked on within a couple of minutes. If so, the sequence of assembly wouldn't have to be changed. They just leave out the final step, put the cars in stock, click on the battery as soon as it is finished and deliver the car. Ramping up battery production above the rate in which cars are manufactured could then speed up deliveries.

 

[MP3Mike]

Wouldn't the battery be the last step? I've seen a video in which EM showed how a model S(?) battery was taken off and a new one clicked on within a couple of minutes. If so, the sequence of assembly wouldn't have to be changed. They just leave out the final step, put the cars in stock, click on the battery as soon as it is finished and deliver the car. Ramping up battery production above the rate in which cars are manufactured could then speed up deliveries.

The Model 3 battery isn't the same, it isn't designed to be quick-swapped. At a minimum you have to take the back seat out to hookup the battery. And where do you think they can store all of these battery-less cars? And how are you going to move them around?

 

[Waiting4M3]

#1: There is a certain sequence of assembly that you can't change for technical reasons.
#2: There is no space beside the production line due to hight robot automation to take cars to the side and bypass a step

Thats the price you pay for the unprecedented output of 3 times the other lines they plan for.

This is very different than any other assembly line and automaker production. I would not be surprised if the line is not running at all most of the time right now until they fix the issues.

Any financial-side concerns? I assume the other parts besides the batteries are already delivered and payment clock on those are kicked off, regardless of whether Tesla is using them or not, so in terms of cash flow this should make no difference. But in terms of accounting, as long as Tesla hasn't used these parts they stay in inventory. But once Tesla starts using them, they start depreciating? But even if they started 1,000 cars, each car has $10K worth of parts, and value depreciates 1% a month (my very uneducated guess), they still only lose $100K on the parts depreciation per month, should be mouse nuts. Maybe the experts on this board can tell me if I'm over-thinking this.

 

[McHoffa]

The Model 3 battery isn't the same, it isn't designed to be quick-swapped. At a minimum you have to take the back seat out to hookup the battery. And where do you think they can store all of these battery-less cars? And how are you going to move them around?

To me that seemed like a dumb move... why not keep them easily swappable? Even if not for the fast swap station, for ease of replacement or service.

...and this delay shows exactly why it would have been smart to keep it like that. If they were quickly installed, they could easily keep making the cars and store them. Moving cars without power isn't that big of a deal.

 

[3Victoria]

How can they be blindsided by their own manufacturing process? This is not their first car.

Because they spec'd the process to a third party for a new design. While it likely worked at slower speeds, it likely failed when sped up. One only really knows if a process works when you try it. Manufactuering processes are very complicated and need to be extremely precise to work at speed.

To me that seemed like a dumb move... why not keep them easily swappable? Even if not for the fast swap station, for ease of replacement or service.

...and this delay shows exactly why it would have been smart to keep it like that. If they were quickly installed, they could easily keep making the cars and store them. Moving cars without power isn't that big of a deal.

While superficially this sounds like it might work, it depends on the messy details: how to move the cars, where and how to move needed parts from storage to the final assembly, is there room to do this, are their workers, saftey considerations, etc. Very messy at least.

 

[sandpiper]

Because they spec'd the process to a third party for a new design. While it likely worked at slower speeds, it likely failed when sped up. One only really knows if a process works when you try it. Manufactuering processes are very complicated and need to be extremely precise to work at speed.


While superficially this sounds like it might work, it depends on the messy details: how to move the cars, where and how to move needed parts from storage to the final assembly, is there room to do this, are their workers, saftey considerations, etc. Very messy at least.

And I expect that the battery issues are providing some welcome cover for a series of other issues in the main assembly plant. If the batteries were flying out like feces through a goose, production would go up, but likely not much.

 

[smartypnz]

I really hope that Tesla is reading this cuz I'm sure they haven't considered any of these great ideas.

Like crossing the Atlantic in the 1700's and suggesting everyone blow on the sails to make the ship go faster.

 

[Mkorpal]

To me that seemed like a dumb move... why not keep them easily swappable? Even if not for the fast swap station, for ease of replacement or service.

...and this delay shows exactly why it would have been smart to keep it like that. If they were quickly installed, they could easily keep making the cars and store them. Moving cars without power isn't that big of a deal.

I'm guessing that simply welding the pack onto the body is cheaper than coming up with a restraint system that allows easy swap.

 

[MP3Mike]

Even if not for the fast swap station

There is no fast swap station.

 

[MP3Mike]

I'm guessing that simply welding the pack onto the body is cheaper than coming up with a restraint system that allows easy swap.

Nobody said they are welding them onto the body... (At least not that I have seen.)