Highest production VIN in the wild

[Gtoffo]

no the highest but still close to 1000 so noteworthy. Should we post all of them to create the VIN graph we saw a couple of days back? How was the data collected for that graph?

EDIT: just saw the graph was by @Waiting4M3 so I already know he has all the known deliveries covered :-D you are everywhere! Keep up the good work and post an updated graph when a few more data points come out!

Model 3 Vin #995 at Pleasant Prairie, WI Supercharger

 

[Waiting4M3]

no the highest but still close to 1000 so noteworthy. Should we post all of them to create the VIN graph we saw a couple of days back? How was the data collected for that graph?

EDIT: just saw the graph was by @Waiting4M3 so I already know he has all the known deliveries covered :-D you are everywhere! Keep up the good work and post an updated graph when a few more data points come out!

Here you go:

 

[ZeApelido]

Here you go:

View attachment 260025

Can you make a kernel density plot of the frequency of new Vin sightings?

 

[Gtoffo]

Here you go:

View attachment 260025

Thanks. If we had to estimate, what would the lag between production and VIN sighting be?

How long since end o prod and delivery for model S if we don't have hard data about 3.

If we are indeed at 700 a week as some reports suggest we should soon see a big spike in highest VIN sighted.

 

[Waiting4M3]

Thanks. If we had to estimate, what would the lag between production and VIN sighting be?

How long since end o prod and delivery for model S if we don't have hard data about 3.

If we are indeed at 700 a week as some reports suggest we should soon see a big spike in highest VIN sighted.

The current sighting frequency (new VINs per day) seems to be double of Sep/Oct, so I think the report that there are 440 M3s out there now (vs 220 by end of Sep) seems to be about right. Remember sightings is based on cumulative # of cars out there, so I wouldn't read too much into it, certainly not draw any conclusion on production rate ramp.

I also heard anecdote from someone who received notice that their M3 came off of production in late Sep, and just got their car delivered in early Nov, so who knows. Tesla is doing a lot of QA at this stage I'm sure. But when they're confident enough about the quality to ramp to higher volume, I'm sure the QA time will be significantly shortened.

 

[Gtoffo]

Remember sightings is based on cumulative # of cars out there, so I wouldn't read too much into it, certainly not draw any conclusion on production rate ramp.

If they are producing 700 cars a week or any other significative number we should see with a delay of weeks a big spike in sighted maximum VINs.

Delay should be equal to delivery time+sighting time. Not sure what the delivery time is for CA deliveries of Model S though....

I would estimate sighting time at 1 week max 2 weeks given the current hysteria over the car. Chances that the owner brags are pretty high and we have little birdies everywhere

 

[Waiting4M3]

Here is my data:

SN VIN Sighted
1 5YJ3E1EA7HF000001 7/18/2017
3 5YJ3E1EA0HF000003 7/21/2017
5 5YJ3E1EA4HF000005 7/30/2017
6 5YJ3E1EA6HF000006 8/6/2017
7 5YJ3E1EA8HF000007 7/20/2017
8 5YJ3E1EAXHF000008 10/20/2017
9 5YJ3E1EA1HF000009 8/19/2017
10 5YJ3E1EA8HF000010 8/23/2017
11 5YJ3E1EAXHF000011 8/13/2017
13 5YJ3E1EA3HF000013 8/30/2017
15 5YJ3E1EA7HF000015 8/6/2017
16 5YJ3E1EA9HF000016 8/16/2017
17 5YJ3E1EA0HF000017 8/19/2017
18 5YJ3E1EA2HF000018 8/23/2017
20 5YJ3E1EA0HF000020 8/29/2017
21 5YJ3E1EA2HF000021 8/30/2017
22 5YJ3E1EA4HF000022 10/21/2017
25 5YJ3E1EAXHF000025 8/27/2017
26 5YJ3E1EA1HF000026 7/20/2017
33 5YJ3E1EA9HF000033 8/3/2017
58 5YJ3E1EA3HF000058 11/2/2017
63 5YJ3E1EA7HF000063 11/12/2017
73 5YJ3E1EAXHF000073 11/2/2017
75 5YJ3E1EA3HF000075 8/12/2017
78 5YJ3E1EA9HF000078 11/6/2017
79 5YJ3E1EA0HF000079 11/11/2017
90 5YJ3E1EAXHF000090 10/22/2017
100 5YJ3E1EA9HF000100 8/24/2017
101 5YJ3E1EA0HF000101 8/14/2017
102 5YJ3E1EA2HF000102 7/30/2017
104 5YJ3E1EA6HF000104 8/17/2017
107 5YJ3E1EA1HF000107 8/16/2017
110 5YJ3E1EA1HF000110 9/3/2017
112 5YJ3E1EA5HF000112 8/6/2017
114 5YJ3E1EA9HF000114 8/11/2017
120 5YJ3E1EA4HF000120 9/4/2017
123 5YJ3E1EAXHF000123 10/15/2017
130 5YJ3E1EA7HF000130 9/16/2017
131 5YJ3E1EA9HF000131 10/22/2017
138 5YJ3E1EA1HF000138 10/15/2017
140 5YJ3E1EAXHF000140 9/10/2017
141 5YJ3E1EA1HF000141 9/4/2017
142 5YJ3E1EA3HF000142 9/3/2017
149 5YJ3E1EA6HF000149 9/26/2017
173 5YJ3E1EA3HF000173 9/6/2017
177 5YJ3E1EA0HF000177 9/8/2017
179 5YJ3E1EA4HF000179 9/9/2017
180 5YJ3E1EA0HF000180 9/17/2017
181 5YJ3E1EA2HF000181 9/23/2017
185 5YJ3E1EAXHF000185 9/23/2017
187 5YJ3E1EA3HF000187 9/10/2017
193 5YJ3E1EA9HF000193 9/12/2017
196 5YJ3E1EA4HF000196 9/13/2017
197 5YJ3E1EA6HF000197 9/13/2017
198 5YJ3E1EA8HF000198 9/19/2017
199 5YJ3E1EAXHF000199 11/8/2017
200 5YJ3E1EA2HF000200 9/1/2017
206 5YJ3E1EA3HF000206 11/2/2017
210 5YJ3E1EA5HF000210 10/4/2017
217 5YJ3E1EA8HF000217 9/18/2017
223 5YJ3E1EA3HF000223 11/8/2017
231 5YJ3E1EA2HF000231 11/11/2017
251 5YJ3E1EA8HF000251 10/22/2017
256 5YJ3E1EA7HF000256 10/13/2017
258 5YJ3E1EA0HF000258 11/11/2017
259 5YJ3E1EA2HF000259 9/22/2017
260 5YJ3E1EA9HF000260 11/11/2017
263 5YJ3E1EA4HF000263 9/27/2017
279 5YJ3E1EA8HF000279 10/8/2017
297 5YJ3E1EAXHF000297 10/12/2017
301 5YJ3E1EA8HF000301 8/25/2017
309 5YJ3E1EA2HF000309 7/23/2017
310 5YJ3E1EA9HF000310 9/20/2017
311 5YJ3E1EA0HF000311 11/2/2017
313 5YJ3E1EA4HF000313 8/7/2017
314 5YJ3E1EA6HF000314 10/21/2017
315 5YJ3E1EA8HF000315 9/24/2017
316 5YJ3E1EAXHF000316 7/16/2017
321 5YJ3E1EA3HF000321 9/28/2017
322 5YJ3E1EA5HF000322 8/23/2017
326 5YJ3E1EA2HF000326 10/10/2017
340 5YJ3E1EA7HF000340 9/30/2017
347 5YJ3E1EAXHF000347 11/8/2017
351 5YJ3E1EA1HF000351 11/4/2017
364 5YJ3E1EAXHF000364 11/7/2017
371 5YJ3E1EA7HF000371 10/29/2017
374 5YJ3E1EA2HF000374 11/13/2017
381 5YJ3E1EAXHF000381 10/22/2017
388 5YJ3E1EA2HF000388 10/6/2017
395 5YJ3E1EAXHF000395 11/11/2017
400 5YJ3E1EAXHF000400 11/12/2017
414 5YJ3E1EAXHF000414 10/14/2017
420 5YJ3E1EA5HF000420 10/2/2017
454 5YJ3E1EA0HF000454 9/28/2017
456 5YJ3E1EA4HF000456 11/12/2017
457 5YJ3E1EA6HF000457 10/13/2017
463 5YJ3E1EA1HF000463 11/4/2017
473 5YJ3E1EA4HF000473 9/22/2017
484 5YJ3E1EA9HF000484 10/14/2017
504 5YJ3E1EA0HF000504 11/13/2017
505 5YJ3E1EA2HF000505 9/29/2017
510 5YJ3E1EA6HF000510 10/23/2017
511 5YJ3E1EA8HF000511 10/24/2017
515 5YJ3E1EA5HF000515 10/19/2017
516 5YJ3E1EA7HF000516 10/13/2017
521 5YJ3E1EA0HF000521 9/30/2017
531 5YJ3E1EA3HF000531 10/27/2017
539 5YJ3E1EA8HF000539 11/12/2017
626 5YJ3E1EA3HF000626 11/8/2017
635 5YJ3E1EA4HF000635 11/10/2017
869 5YJ3E1EA7HF000869 11/3/2017
994 5YJ3E1EAXHF000994 11/10/2017
995 5YJ3E1EA1HF000995 11/12/2017
1088 5YJ3E1EA6HF001088 11/6/2017
1090 5YJ3E1EA4HF001090 11/11/2017

 

[Gtoffo]

I also heard anecdote from someone who received notice that their M3 came off of production in late Sep, and just got their car delivered in early Nov, so who knows. Tesla is doing a lot of QA at this stage I'm sure. But when they're confident enough about the quality to ramp to higher volume, I'm sure the QA time will be significantly shortened.

I agree. I would expect delivery time to be at least a month after end of production so we should be (to be prudent) lagging by a couple of months with VIN sightings.

On the other hand we know from Tesla that VINs are usually assigned a month and a half before production for Model S & X. Estimating your delivery date

Probably for Model 3 those timelines are significantly shortened.

So keeping track of assigned VINs should also give us a good indication of how things are progressing. Both good indicators to track IMHO.

 

[3Victoria]

Here a graph of weekly sightings from the data above -- this is by hand, so take with a grain of salt. Seems promising.

 

[Leland]

Spotted 535 parked at Disneyland today.

 

[augkuo]

Here is my data:

SN VIN Sighted
1 5YJ3E1EA7HF000001 7/18/2017
3 5YJ3E1EA0HF000003 7/21/2017
5 5YJ3E1EA4HF000005 7/30/2017
6 5YJ3E1EA6HF000006 8/6/2017
7 5YJ3E1EA8HF000007 7/20/2017
8 5YJ3E1EAXHF000008 10/20/2017
9 5YJ3E1EA1HF000009 8/19/2017
10 5YJ3E1EA8HF000010 8/23/2017
11 5YJ3E1EAXHF000011 8/13/2017
13 5YJ3E1EA3HF000013 8/30/2017
15 5YJ3E1EA7HF000015 8/6/2017
16 5YJ3E1EA9HF000016 8/16/2017
17 5YJ3E1EA0HF000017 8/19/2017
18 5YJ3E1EA2HF000018 8/23/2017
20 5YJ3E1EA0HF000020 8/29/2017
21 5YJ3E1EA2HF000021 8/30/2017
22 5YJ3E1EA4HF000022 10/21/2017
25 5YJ3E1EAXHF000025 8/27/2017
26 5YJ3E1EA1HF000026 7/20/2017
33 5YJ3E1EA9HF000033 8/3/2017
58 5YJ3E1EA3HF000058 11/2/2017
63 5YJ3E1EA7HF000063 11/12/2017
73 5YJ3E1EAXHF000073 11/2/2017
75 5YJ3E1EA3HF000075 8/12/2017
78 5YJ3E1EA9HF000078 11/6/2017
79 5YJ3E1EA0HF000079 11/11/2017
90 5YJ3E1EAXHF000090 10/22/2017
100 5YJ3E1EA9HF000100 8/24/2017
101 5YJ3E1EA0HF000101 8/14/2017
102 5YJ3E1EA2HF000102 7/30/2017
104 5YJ3E1EA6HF000104 8/17/2017
107 5YJ3E1EA1HF000107 8/16/2017
110 5YJ3E1EA1HF000110 9/3/2017
112 5YJ3E1EA5HF000112 8/6/2017
114 5YJ3E1EA9HF000114 8/11/2017
120 5YJ3E1EA4HF000120 9/4/2017
123 5YJ3E1EAXHF000123 10/15/2017
130 5YJ3E1EA7HF000130 9/16/2017
131 5YJ3E1EA9HF000131 10/22/2017
138 5YJ3E1EA1HF000138 10/15/2017
140 5YJ3E1EAXHF000140 9/10/2017
141 5YJ3E1EA1HF000141 9/4/2017
142 5YJ3E1EA3HF000142 9/3/2017
149 5YJ3E1EA6HF000149 9/26/2017
173 5YJ3E1EA3HF000173 9/6/2017
177 5YJ3E1EA0HF000177 9/8/2017
179 5YJ3E1EA4HF000179 9/9/2017
180 5YJ3E1EA0HF000180 9/17/2017
181 5YJ3E1EA2HF000181 9/23/2017
185 5YJ3E1EAXHF000185 9/23/2017
187 5YJ3E1EA3HF000187 9/10/2017
193 5YJ3E1EA9HF000193 9/12/2017
196 5YJ3E1EA4HF000196 9/13/2017
197 5YJ3E1EA6HF000197 9/13/2017
198 5YJ3E1EA8HF000198 9/19/2017
199 5YJ3E1EAXHF000199 11/8/2017
200 5YJ3E1EA2HF000200 9/1/2017
206 5YJ3E1EA3HF000206 11/2/2017
210 5YJ3E1EA5HF000210 10/4/2017
217 5YJ3E1EA8HF000217 9/18/2017
223 5YJ3E1EA3HF000223 11/8/2017
231 5YJ3E1EA2HF000231 11/11/2017
251 5YJ3E1EA8HF000251 10/22/2017
256 5YJ3E1EA7HF000256 10/13/2017
258 5YJ3E1EA0HF000258 11/11/2017
259 5YJ3E1EA2HF000259 9/22/2017
260 5YJ3E1EA9HF000260 11/11/2017
263 5YJ3E1EA4HF000263 9/27/2017
279 5YJ3E1EA8HF000279 10/8/2017
297 5YJ3E1EAXHF000297 10/12/2017
301 5YJ3E1EA8HF000301 8/25/2017
309 5YJ3E1EA2HF000309 7/23/2017
310 5YJ3E1EA9HF000310 9/20/2017
311 5YJ3E1EA0HF000311 11/2/2017
313 5YJ3E1EA4HF000313 8/7/2017
314 5YJ3E1EA6HF000314 10/21/2017
315 5YJ3E1EA8HF000315 9/24/2017
316 5YJ3E1EAXHF000316 7/16/2017
321 5YJ3E1EA3HF000321 9/28/2017
322 5YJ3E1EA5HF000322 8/23/2017
326 5YJ3E1EA2HF000326 10/10/2017
340 5YJ3E1EA7HF000340 9/30/2017
347 5YJ3E1EAXHF000347 11/8/2017
351 5YJ3E1EA1HF000351 11/4/2017
364 5YJ3E1EAXHF000364 11/7/2017
371 5YJ3E1EA7HF000371 10/29/2017
374 5YJ3E1EA2HF000374 11/13/2017
381 5YJ3E1EAXHF000381 10/22/2017
388 5YJ3E1EA2HF000388 10/6/2017
395 5YJ3E1EAXHF000395 11/11/2017
400 5YJ3E1EAXHF000400 11/12/2017
414 5YJ3E1EAXHF000414 10/14/2017
420 5YJ3E1EA5HF000420 10/2/2017
454 5YJ3E1EA0HF000454 9/28/2017
456 5YJ3E1EA4HF000456 11/12/2017
457 5YJ3E1EA6HF000457 10/13/2017
463 5YJ3E1EA1HF000463 11/4/2017
473 5YJ3E1EA4HF000473 9/22/2017
484 5YJ3E1EA9HF000484 10/14/2017
504 5YJ3E1EA0HF000504 11/13/2017
505 5YJ3E1EA2HF000505 9/29/2017
510 5YJ3E1EA6HF000510 10/23/2017
511 5YJ3E1EA8HF000511 10/24/2017
515 5YJ3E1EA5HF000515 10/19/2017
516 5YJ3E1EA7HF000516 10/13/2017
521 5YJ3E1EA0HF000521 9/30/2017
531 5YJ3E1EA3HF000531 10/27/2017
539 5YJ3E1EA8HF000539 11/12/2017
626 5YJ3E1EA3HF000626 11/8/2017
635 5YJ3E1EA4HF000635 11/10/2017
869 5YJ3E1EA7HF000869 11/3/2017
994 5YJ3E1EAXHF000994 11/10/2017
995 5YJ3E1EA1HF000995 11/12/2017
1088 5YJ3E1EA6HF001088 11/6/2017
1090 5YJ3E1EA4HF001090 11/11/2017

sorry I had forgotten to upload 346

 

[Ulmo]

Sorry about that. I won't use a facebook link again.

I've been wanting to apologize as well; I came down on you way too hard. Thank you for the information! I need to learn to be more positive when trying to explain best practices. Someone else was able to post it. Next time I should just say "Can someone retrieve that picture for us? I can't seem to get at it." Go ahead and use a Facebook link; I'll learn to ask politely for someone to retrieve it if it's important enough.

 

[GoTslaGo]

View attachment 260041 View attachment 260042 Spotted 535 parked at Disneyland today.

Parked, but not charging... in a charging station?!

 

[McHoffa]

An employee’s husband just got their VIN assigned yesterday and it’s 08XX. That means they have a couple weeks until delivery probably.

Definitely not made in sequential order

 

[ZeApelido]

Seems to be ramping up nicely

 

[SageBrush]

Seems to be ramping up nicely

My fingers are crossed ...
But if you set the scale from say 0 to 50 cars a day that spike at the end might be noise.
We'll know over the next month

A plot on a log axis showing a nice at least linear increase would also be very reassuring

 

[McHoffa]

Hopefully they would skip numbers such as 666 and the like.

it just has to be black or red

 

[McHoffa]

My fingers are crossed ...
But if you set the scale from say 0 to 50 cars a day that spike at the end might be noise.
We'll know over the next month

When the ramp happens, we'll see 1200s one week, then the next week 1500s, then the next 2000s, then 3000s.

 

[dsvick]

Seems to be ramping up nicely

When the ramp happens, we'll see 1200s one week, then the next week 1500s, then the next 2000s, then 3000s.

I'm sure, as they are produced, they are not sending out packs in ones and twos but likely consolidating them into truck loads. We may simply be seeing the result of the delivery of a truck load of battery packs. If it continues though, then that is some indication that they are a least in steady production if not quite ramping up yet.

 

[Waiting4M3]

I'm sure, as they are produced, they are not sending out packs in ones and twos but likely consolidating them into truck loads. We may simply be seeing the result of the delivery of a truck load of battery packs. If it continues though, then that is some indication that they are a least in steady production if not quite ramping up yet.

Won't they just mix in whatever M3 packs they have with MS/X packs that they're shipping from GF to Fremont at high frequency?