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Highest production VIN in the wild

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The VINS (normally) are a running tally.

IIRC, "about" 2400 units were made (not delivered, but acknowledged as made) as of 31 Dec 2017.

So, at end of week seven of 2018, at 1000 units a week, that makes 7000 units made in 2018.

2400 +7000 = 9400 VIN units as of two days ago.......if the factory has been running every week in 2018 and producing 1000 units a week.
With the first week off in Jan* that comes out to lots of mid-8000's VINs being allocated which is in line with lots of reports.

EDIT: BTW that's assuming an average of 1000/week for the full period, the numbers had been looking like they were running somewhat below 1000/week mid-Jan so they'd need to be above that now to keep pace on that overall average.

* Multiple sources on this, and it's been like this years past ostensively because they push through end of year season to pile up end-of-quarter stats.
 
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At the end of December, the highest VIN delivered was above 3000, and yet Tesla delivered only 1770 cars. I myself just received a 6XXX VIN. Tesla is assigning VINs out of order for unknown reasons. My guess is the we are well below 9000, though if March turns out to be very lucky for Tesla, nobody will ever know for certain.
 
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At the end of December, the highest VIN delivered was above 3000, and yet Tesla delivered only 1770 cars. I myself just received a 6XXX VIN. Tesla is assigning VINs out of order for unknown reasons. My guess is the we are well below 9000, though if March turns out to be very lucky for Tesla, nobody will ever know for certain.
we are 2 days , from all vins to be used if we would have a 1000 cars/week production rate since jan 2018. vin number equals to deliveries. A car "produced" in 2017, and delivered in 2017, will get a vin with a 2017 "badge". A car "produced" in 2017 but delivered to its customer in 2018, will count towards a vin that has a 2018 "badge". We had 1770 deliveries in 2017, model3vins twitter account,Model 3 VINs (@Model3VINs) | Twitter , gives that 2984 vins got registered in 2017 ( have a 2017 "badge"). The consequence is that 2984-1770= 1214 "2017" vins ,will never be used, as they have a 2017 "badge", Production precedes deliveries, 831 cars were produced in 2017, but only delivered in 2018 and therefor, 857 vins were transferred to 2018. 2984+857=3841 is the number of vins, that could have been used, for cars "produced" in 2017. We are in week 8 of 2018, day 51, 1000 cars/week / 7 days/week = 143 cars/day * 51 = 7285 vins needed + 3841 = 11126 . Thats 2 days from 11346 the amount of vins that were registered up to now.
 
2400 +7000 = 9400 VIN units as of two days ago.......if the factory has been running every week in 2018 and producing 1000 units a week.

Which, let's be honest, is not the case (and I think maybe that's your point).

Thanks to Tesla's PR department using weasel words to imply 1000 units per week at the end of last year (when actually the total number built that week was 793, and that was likely due to an all out push). Indications have been that the real average during January were more in the 600's per week (although that may or may not have been due to a plant shutdown the first week of January). I'm guessing that during the first few weeks of February maybe they are up to around 900 and may hit 1000 by the end of the month.

As much as Tesla says they don't need the German equipment to hit 2500/week, I wouldn't count on them hitting that milestone until at least end of March.
 
Thanks to Tesla's PR department using weasel words to imply 1000 units per week at the end of last year (when actually the total number built that week was 793, and that was likely due to an all out push).

Those weren’t weasel words. They were the opposite of weasel words. They were very precise. They hit burst rates (as opposed to sustained or sustainable rates) on each of their sub-assemblies (that is, not the entire assembly line at once) at rates that extrapolate to 1000/week. They then gave the actual full production for the time period, which is how you know the 793 number. The obvious implication of that was that they would start 2018 production at a sustained rate of less than 1000/week and work their way up from there. Rumor has it that they built up to a rate of 1000/week by the end of January, but we don’t know if that rumor is true.

They were precise with their words. If you were imprecise with your thinking, that’s not their fault.
 
Those weren’t weasel words. They were the opposite of weasel words. They were very precise. They hit burst rates (as opposed to sustained or sustainable rates) on each of their sub-assemblies (that is, not the entire assembly line at once) at rates that extrapolate to 1000/week. They then gave the actual full production for the time period, which is how you know the 793 number. The obvious implication of that was that they would start 2018 production at a sustained rate of less than 1000/week and work their way up from there. Rumor has it that they built up to a rate of 1000/week by the end of January, but we don’t know if that rumor is true.

They were precise with their words. If you were imprecise with your thinking, that’s not their fault.

From Wikipedia:

Wikipedia said:
A weasel word, or anonymous authority, is an informal term for words and phrases aimed at creating an impression that a specific or meaningful statement has been made, when instead only a vague or ambiguous claim has actually been communicated. This can enable the speaker to later deny the specific meaning if the statement is challenged. Where this is the intention, use of weasel words is a form of tergiversation.

The 4Q17 December delivery report just about perfectly meets this definition. I've said it in the past and I will vehemently keep saying this. The majority of people read their statement and came away thinking that Tesla was producing 1000 units per week. If that wasn't the case, and they communicated in very clear terms, then we wouldn't be having this discussion over and over. You're right that the actual words they used did not mean they were producing 1000 units per week. Yet that's the impression that I would say 75-80% of people came away with.

By the way, any time the words "extrapolate" and "in the last few days" and "over <some number>" is used, please don't use the word precise. It is almost the exact opposite of precise.
 
From Wikipedia:



The 4Q17 December delivery report just about perfectly meets this definition. I've said it in the past and I will vehemently keep saying this. The majority of people read their statement and came away thinking that Tesla was producing 1000 units per week. If that wasn't the case, and they communicated in very clear terms, then we wouldn't be having this discussion over and over. You're right that the actual words they used did not mean they were producing 1000 units per week. Yet that's the impression that I would say 75-80% of people came away with.

By the way, any time the words "extrapolate" and "in the last few days" and "over <some number>" is used, please don't use the word precise. It is almost the exact opposite of precise.
It was engineering speak. The opposite of weasel words. Don’t critique what you don’t understand.
 
a
It was engineering speak. The opposite of weasel words. Don’t critique what you don’t understand.

Being an engineer, I would never use the word extrapolate in that context, and I would rarely use it at all without many, many assumptions and caveats listed. I know exactly what it means, and I perfectly understood the truth of Tesla's statement. Please don't make the assumption that I didn't. I certainly did, and this is why I am making the point that I am.

My point is that Tesla knew full well they could trick the public into thinking that they were at (or at least close enough that that milestone was imminent). Absolutely no meaningful, relevant information was conveyed by adding the extrapolated comment. It's sole purpose was for marketing/investor relations. From a purely technical standpoint, the only data point that mattered was the 793, but they decided to add the 1000 comment to address outlooks and forecasts made by management that that milestone would be hit by the end of the year and make it appear that they had met that.

By the way, I am not blaming Tesla for doing that. Look at practically any press release issued by any company and you will see basically the same type of statements--rooted in truth, but spun in a technically accurate, but potentially misleading way.

I think it is very clear that a very large number of people are under the impression that Tesla hit (or immediately after January 1st) 1000 units per week, mostly based on this statement. Now maybe you don't like the fact that I used the term "weasel words" to describe the fact that those people misinterpreted what was said. I guess I could have said, as some of you have stated, that they are "stupid" for not understanding what "extrapolate" means, but I think of myself as more understanding and can understand why people would have fallen into that trap and I assign the responsibility for the confusion on Tesla's use of unscientifically precise language in their statement.
 
a


Being an engineer, I would never use the word extrapolate in that context, and I would rarely use it at all without many, many assumptions and caveats listed. I know exactly what it means, and I perfectly understood the truth of Tesla's statement. Please don't make the assumption that I didn't. I certainly did, and this is why I am making the point that I am.

My point is that Tesla knew full well they could trick the public into thinking that they were at (or at least close enough that that milestone was imminent). Absolutely no meaningful, relevant information was conveyed by adding the extrapolated comment. It's sole purpose was for marketing/investor relations. From a purely technical standpoint, the only data point that mattered was the 793, but they decided to add the 1000 comment to address outlooks and forecasts made by management that that milestone would be hit by the end of the year and make it appear that they had met that.

By the way, I am not blaming Tesla for doing that. Look at practically any press release issued by any company and you will see basically the same type of statements--rooted in truth, but spun in a technically accurate, but potentially misleading way.

I think it is very clear that a very large number of people are under the impression that Tesla hit (or immediately after January 1st) 1000 units per week, mostly based on this statement. Now maybe you don't like the fact that I used the term "weasel words" to describe the fact that those people misinterpreted what was said. I guess I could have said, as some of you have stated, that they are "stupid" for not understanding what "extrapolate" means, but I think of myself as more understanding and can understand why people would have fallen into that trap and I assign the responsibility for the confusion on Tesla's use of unscientifically precise language in their statement.
Fact: Tesla’s statement was not weasel words. The statement was very precise.
 
What's a word that means a precise statement that has intent to mislead?
"Weasel words" implies ambiguousness, so that's pretty poor choice here. It would be a good choice however if accuracy is not your agenda, rather your desire to evoke the negative emotions attached to "weasel", partially because of the vagueness and obscuring associated with it.

So, which is your agenda here?

P.S. Setting aside for the moment your speculative claim of intention to mislead. :rolleyes:
 
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