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How Big a solar system to get?

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You ideally want to replace the highest cost per kWh power you are buying with solar. This will show a profit sooner on your investment. TOU and Tiered are your friend.

Example, we bought 20kW which yields about 1/3 our monthly kWh. After tax incentives, it will be about $22k, and reduce our bill $9000 the first year, then $11,000 the second year as we fall out of the Demand-Based TOU plans and into simple TOUs. So in year 3, will basically earn $10k a year.
 
Boy, I hope you're right but the evidence doesn't suggest that's going to be happening anytime soon.

I look at the trajectory of the western US states and feel pretty good about it. The consumer push back will grow as the solar customer base grows and they're already holding they're own as of the last 9 months or so.

Germany just told all the utilty producers they're screwed then cut them a check after they rightfully sued. Now they've all split off production into separate companies. Hopefully we'll go that way soon.
 
TOU and Tiered are your friend.

Well, here's one of my problems with TOU. I often pull into my garage around peak TOU periods with a nearly depleted battery. In an emergency, I can't leave the house with dead batteries, so I plug in immediately. Quite often, this is mid day. My wife might be out with the other car.

Being retired, I am in the house often during the day, when I want the AC on not off until 7 PM when TOU rates drop. I want power when TOU rates are at their highest. NEM 1.0 is my friend. I know younger people still in the workforce are out all day but retired folks like me often are not. And what about folks that work third shift and sleep all day or even folks that work second shift?

It has been one of the hottest summers that I can recall. We were in Las Vegas a month ago, where the daytime temperature was 124ºF! It was 112ºF at my home but not inside the house. No, I set it and forget it - 72ºF 24/7. One day during the last couple weeks, I plowed through 100 kWh of power in one day! Granted, I charged my car but this is one of the reasons I invested in solar. I'm too damn old to be sweating bullets waiting for 7 PM to roll around :)
 
Hello!
As my family eagarly awaits our model 3, we are looking at getting a solar system for our house. We have a large south facing roof, so the question is, how big do I need to go. I know that is a complex question, but since I know next to nothing about solar, I was hoping some folks could give me some things to think about. Is it as easy as "as big as you can afford"! or is there more too it then that? Here in Washington the electric rates are tiered, with the first 800Kw a month being cheap, but then they expensive quickly after that. I would love your thoughts!

No brainer here in SoCal. Systems 10kw and under...permits are free! Prices on solar components have dropped significantly in the past few years. I have a dual zone A/C 3k sq ft house .
In 2015, I installed a 10kw Solar World/SolarEdge system myself for $20k including the 20 trips to Home Depot. Today...the same system is 20% less.
Btw, even with my MS 85 charging every night, I still get a refund from Edison at the of my yearly relavent period.
 
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It really depends on your energy usage. Prior to purchasing our vehicles we installed a 5Kw system on our house. It brought down out electrick bill considerable (especially in the summer). But that all change with the electric cars which added @ $150 per month to our bill (keep in mind that we drive @ 5000 miles per month between both cars so it's really not bad). We just expanded our system to 8.9Kw. Below is a link detailing our system and the affect of the cars on our electric bill:

 
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No brainer here in SoCal. Systems 10k and under...permits are free! Prices on solar components have dropped significantly in the past few years. In 2015, I installed a 10k Solar World/SolarEdge system myself for $20k including the 20 trips to Home Depot. Today...the same system is 20% less. Btw, even with my MS 85 charging every night, I get a refund every year from Edison.

Congratulations for installing the system yourself. That's great; I envy you. Your $20K system probably would have been double that if procured and installed by a good company three years ago. But, are you happy getting peanuts from Edison? Perhaps you're still growing into your system but I wouldn't spend more money than I need to build a system. As for permits, they're not all free. They are set by the city you live in. My permit was $300 and included three visits by the city inspector.
 
Congratulations for installing the system yourself. That's great; I envy you. Your $20K system probably would have been double that if procured and installed by a good company three years ago. But, are you happy getting peanuts from Edison? Perhaps you're still growing into your system but I wouldn't spend more money than I need to build a system. As for permits, they're not all free. They are set by the city you live in. My permit was $300 and included three visits by the city inspector.

Apparently Ventura County is more liberal with solar installs. I called for inspection on Thursday for a Friday inspection...their busiest day. They were at my house for 15 mins. Checked breakers, disconnect, Inverter, and counted # of panels, signed inspection card and left.

Yes, the checks from Edison are a joke, but with panels under $300 and Inverters under $2k it made sense to install the max allowable. There is also the degradation factor with all PV panels to consider.
Solar Panels from Wholesale Solar has some great deals on systems right now.
 
When you say a 10kW system, how was "allowable" calculated, with 12 month's worth of actual billing or square feet of residence under heat and A/C? Edison isn't keen on people making money from solar, even when it's only 2-3 cents/kW.

The max allowable without having to have the system designed by a licensed engineer. Also, in Ventura Co, permit fees apply on larger systems above 10kW as well as plans have to go thru the regular plan check process. I only had to complete a 2 page worksheet and a drawing of the layout showing fire dept access pathways.
The SCE worksheet did not require 12 mos billing history as I assume they already had that. They were more interested in the specs of all the components in my system, obviously concerned with the equipment connected to their grid.
 
You ideally want to replace the highest cost per kWh power you are buying with solar. This will show a profit sooner on your investment. TOU and Tiered are your friend.

Example, we bought 20kW which yields about 1/3 our monthly kWh. After tax incentives, it will be about $22k, and reduce our bill $9000 the first year, then $11,000 the second year as we fall out of the Demand-Based TOU plans and into simple TOUs. So in year 3, will basically earn $10k a year.

I think you're not understanding the way system sizes are expressed. A 20kW system implies, with 300watt panels, in the neighborhood of 60 panels. With current install prices of around $3/w, that's around $55k. The usual way system size is expressed is the sum of the panel outputs. For instance, our 5.3kW system generates about 8800kW/year which covers between 95 and 100% of our usage.
 
I think you're not understanding the way system sizes are expressed. A 20kW system implies, with 300watt panels, in the neighborhood of 60 panels. With current install prices of around $3/w, that's around $55k. The usual way system size is expressed is the sum of the panel outputs. For instance, our 5.3kW system generates about 8800kW/year which covers between 95 and 100% of our usage.

Technically, we are 64 x 310 watts generating about 30,000 kWh annually at 480 vac 3-ph.
Panels, isolators, invertor = $14k shipped.
Mounts = $6k shipped.
Labor $5k (tool-less install, flat roof)
Unexpected issues: $5k.
Fed incentive 30%

This supplies about 1/3 of our power needs but reduces the bill to under 50%.
Just over 2 year payback then it 'makes' money on paper.
Note - Our electric bill has been as high as $2500, last month was over $1900.
 
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Technically, we are 64 x 310 watts generating about 30,000 kWh annually at 480 vac 3-ph.
Panels, isolators, invertor = $14k shipped.
Mounts = $6k shipped.
Labor $5k (tool-less install, flat roof)
Fed incentive 30%

This supplies about 1/3 of our power needs but reduces the bill to under 50%.
Just over 2 year payback then it 'makes' money on paper.

Wow, that seems like a fabulous price; less than $1.5 per kW for what in my experience is a very large system that only supplies 1/3 of your power. You're saying you're using 90mW/yr? I'm seeing average household usage in California is less than 7mW/yr.
 
Technically, we are 64 x 310 watts generating about 30,000 kWh annually at 480 vac 3-ph.
Panels, isolators, invertor = $14k shipped.
Mounts = $6k shipped.
Labor $5k (tool-less install, flat roof)
Unexpected issues: $5k.
Fed incentive 30%

This supplies about 1/3 of our power needs but reduces the bill to under 50%.
Just over 2 year payback then it 'makes' money on paper.
Note - Our electric bill has been as high as $2500, last month was over $1900.


Wow! $2500-$1900 a month. That is a tough pill to swallow. What kind of rates are you paying that your bill is so high?
 
Wow! $2500-$1900 a month. That is a tough pill to swallow. What kind of rates are you paying that your bill is so high?

It's not the price per kWh that kills us. It's the peak kW fees, which are close to $600/m before paying for kWh's. This is where the solar can make the biggest ROI for us. Solar output will drop the peak demand fees.

Wow, that seems like a fabulous price; less than $1.5 per kW for what in my experience is a very large system that only supplies 1/3 of your power. You're saying you're using 90mW/yr? I'm seeing average household usage in California is less than 7mW/yr.

Guess I should have made that more clear. 480vac 3-ph is industrial use.