How ICE Makers Survive When...

[mrbulk]

all I’ve been seeing in media and online lately is:


Legacy Automakers: “We’re gearing up for EVs!”


Inference: “EVs are better!”


Fact: EV is different from ICE and gearing up costs billions


So my questions are:


Meanwhile, wouldn’t many wait and Not buy more ICE cars?


So then how will Legacy Automakers obtain those needed billions?


All while keeping the lights on by - building yet more ICE cars? I see a problem.


Opinions welcome, I hope to understand why there may be more to this doomed transition than the inevitable demise of traditional automakers that I feel is occurring right now.

 

[Shock-On-T]

all I’ve been seeing in media and online lately is:


Legacy Automakers: “We’re gearing up for EVs!”


Inference: “EVs are better!”


Fact: EV is different from ICE and gearing up costs billions


So my questions are:


Meanwhile, wouldn’t many wait and Not buy more ICE cars?


So then how will Legacy Automakers obtain those needed billions?


All while keeping the lights on by - building yet more ICE cars? I see a problem.


Opinions welcome, I hope to understand why there may be more to this doomed transition than the inevitable demise of traditional automakers that I feel is occurring right now.

A recent survey showed that just over 50% of people don't know that electric cars exist.

 

[CyberShy]

OP needs to try to buy an EV at an ICE dealer. The pressure against them is enormous. Outside of the CARB states, they practically do not exist.

 

[mrbulk]

Yup, totally agree, I did the ask about EV at ICE dealer experience as well. But like every other notable disruption, there was a sudden, overnight tipping point and many will get caught flat-footed. Of course if you’re reading this then you are already aware of EVs. Again I’m just worried about the Legacies since I’ve been a lifelong car guy and would like them to produce compelling EVs rather than fade out while asking for more bailout subsidies.

 

[CyberShy]

It ain’t Gonna be sudden in the general USA. I wish it would be, but it won’t.

5-10 years.

 

[P100D_Me]

5-10 maybe in California, double or triple that last figure for most other states in the USA. Cities like Paris and London are on target to ban old Diesel cars by 2020, meanwhile the USA still embraces to the tune of nearly ONE MILLION sales in 2018 of the FORD F-series gas and Diesel trucks (not sure about GM and Dodge pickups). Regardless if people really need to drive those or not, the buyers love them and I don't think a full electric replacement for them is suitable enough in the near future.

 

[CarlK]

Legacy car companies still need to make money from selling ICE cars even when they know they have to be in the EV game to survive long term. It's like we all know getting a good education is essential for a good future but it's still a lot of sacrifice not everyone is able to pull it off. Those who could not sacrifice and put in efforts likely will not end up too well.

 

[Sonic_78]

Transiting supply chains, basically shutting down one and gearing up the other, will be an extremely difficult and costly move. Engines, transmissions, etc... are complicated components and the auto makers leverage their sophistication for marketing sales. Take that away and the overall marketplace becomes awfully generic. What I'm saying is they won't go at it alone, each on their own. They'll need to team up, like ford / gm on their 10 speed transmission. Or have batteries supplied completely 3rd party, from Tesla for instance.

 

[mrbulk]

I do see frequent hybrid ads, perhaps they feel it could be a stopgap while their EV sales ramp up. But why would an EV-minded prospect get a car with Two drivetrains to maintain? Just to keep the dealers in the maintenance loop?

 

[Eno Deb]

I do see frequent hybrid ads, perhaps they feel it could be a stopgap while their EV sales ramp up. But why would an EV-minded prospect get a car with Two drivetrains to maintain?

Perhaps they don't have a place to charge at home? Or they often drive in areas with bad fastcharging coverage? Or they often drive long distance and don't want to sit around at a charger for 40 minutes every few hundred miles?

BTW, most hybrids don't have two drive trains, and they actually aren't significantly more complex than pure ICE cars. While they need to add a motor, battery and some other electrical components, they may also remove the need for a starter and a generator (since the hybrid motor can often take over their roles). Some hybrid architectures, such as the power split device pioneered by the Toyota Prius, may also obviate the gearbox and other transmission parts. There is a reason why hybrids, especially those with smaller batteries, are generally not that much more expensive than ICE cars.

Just to keep the dealers in the maintenance loop?

Some hybrids, such as the aforementioned Prius, have much lower maintenance cost than e.g. a Tesla. There is more to making a reliable car than what kind of power train it uses.

 

[mrbulk]

Perhaps they don't have a place to charge at home? Or they often drive in areas with bad fastcharging coverage? Or they often drive long distance and don't want to sit around at a charger for 40 minutes every few hundred miles?

BTW, most hybrids don't have two drive trains, and they actually aren't significantly more complex than pure ICE cars. While they need to add a motor, battery and some other electrical components, they may also remove the need for a starter and a generator (since the hybrid motor can often take over their roles). Some hybrid architectures, such as the power split device pioneered by the Toyota Prius, may also obviate the gearbox and other transmission parts. There is a reason why hybrids, especially those with smaller batteries, are generally not that much more expensive than ICE cars.
Some hybrids, such as the aforementioned Prius, have much lower maintenance cost than e.g. a Tesla. There is more to making a reliable car than what kind of power train it uses.

I agree in principle, but any ICE engine, even a 4-banger, has a thousand more moving parts than an EV. I just don’t want to see the dealer that often. If new Prius sales (and used trade-ins for a Model 3) are any indication, others may be feeling the same way.

 

[Kant.Ing]

Just in case, Making Sense Of Tesla's Slow-Moving Competition

 

[Shock-On-T]

I absolutely hated having to take my old ICE cars for servicing. I will never get a hybrid, or an ICE again.

 

[Eno Deb]

I agree in principle, but any ICE engine, even a 4-banger, has a thousand more moving parts than an EV. I just don’t want to see the dealer that often. If new Prius sales (and used trade-ins for a Model 3) are any indication, others may be feeling the same way.

I'm pretty certain that Tesla drivers on average see the service center far more often than Toyota drivers. There are many good reasons to buy a Tesla over a Toyota, but reliability isn't one of them.

 

[CarlK]

I'm pretty certain that Tesla drivers on average see the service center far more often than Toyota drivers. There are many good reasons to buy a Tesla over a Toyota, but reliability isn't one of them.

I actually saw Toyota service more often when I owned a Prius. Not only it had its share of breakdowns and recalls I needed to go there once or twice a year just for routine maintenance and oil change. People seem to forget about that.

 

[Eno Deb]

I actually saw Toyota service more often when I owned a Prius. Not only it had its share of breakdowns and recalls

We used to have a Prius and didn't have a single issue with it. The magic of averages. My Model 3, on the other hand, already has two service center visits and one mobile repair appointment behind it in less than half a year of ownership.

I needed to go there once or twice a year just for routine maintenance and oil change. People seem to forget about that.

The Tesla also needs things like brake fluid and air filter replacements, tire rotations, inspections, as well as battery coolant replacement every few years.

 

[CarlK]

We used to have a Prius and didn't have a single issue with it. The magic of averages. My Model 3, on the other hand, already has two service center visits and one mobile repair appointment behind it in less than half a year of ownership.
The Tesla also needs things like brake fluid and air filter replacements, tire rotations, inspections, as well as battery coolant replacement every few years.

This is what the magic of averages says about 2010 Prius I used to own. Most problematic car I've ever owned. Don't ever believe you are home free just because you have bought a Toyota.

2010 TOYOTA PRIUS 4 DR FWD

 

[mrbulk]

Actually, I have Never taken my S into service for Anything. Yet anyway.

 

[StealthP3D]

I'm pretty certain that Tesla drivers on average see the service center far more often than Toyota drivers. There are many good reasons to buy a Tesla over a Toyota, but reliability isn't one of them.

Most regular service and repairs can be done by a Tesla Mobile Service Tech (Ranger).

As a sample of two, neither of our Model 3's (one in May and one in Sept) has needed a single repair or adjustment (except for over-the-air software updates)

Toyotas are not free of "problem vehicles". I know a number of Toyota owners that have had reliability expensive repairs and a bunch more that didn't get that magical vehicle that goes 200,000 with nothing but oil changes and air filters, spark plugs, brakes and tires. Oxygen sensors get fouled, mass airflow meters go out of calibration, then plugs foul, bad gas, fuel pumps or filters fail, and the list goes on.

Toyota fanboys pretend they are more reliable than they really are. I like my chances with our two Model 3's a lot better than any Toyota. Toyotas were more reliable in decades past than they are now.

 

[Eno Deb]

This is what the magic of averages says about 2010 Prius I used to own. Most problematic car I've ever owned. Don't ever believe you are home free just because you have bought a Toyota.

2010 TOYOTA PRIUS 4 DR FWD

What is that supposed to show? Obviously a car that has sold in the millions receives more complaints (which are, BTW, safety complaints in this case that have nothing to do with reliability or maintenance). Perhaps take a look at actual reliability surveys to see where Tesla stands:

Here Are The Most- And Least-Reliable Rides On The Road For 2019

Fanboy cheerleading won't improve anything.