So... How many cars will Tesla deliver in Q4? This is the main subject of this thread and the central piece of guidance Elon provided for Q4. As you'll recall, the revised Estimate from Elon was 2500-3000 DELIVERED in Q4. Of course, we all know, "delivered" can be "put on truck" and paid for by customer. Of course we may not get an official announcement till earning call on Feb 11th. That being said, what is everyone's guess? It seems to me they delivered at least 2500.
Lets have a good discussion on this based on available data points
From a financial accounting perspective, one needs to look at TSLA's revenue recognition policy. TSLA recognizes revenue as follows (from their Q3-12 10-Q report):
Revenue Recognition
We recognize revenues from sales of Model S and the Tesla Roadster, including vehicle options and accessories, vehicle service and sales of emission credits, such as zero emission vehicle and greenhouse gas emission credits, as well as sales of electric vehicle powertrain components and systems, such as battery packs and drive units.
We recognize revenue when:
(i) persuasive evidence of an arrangement exists;
(ii) delivery has occurred and there are no uncertainties regarding customer acceptance;
(iii) fees are fixed or determinable; and
(iv) collection is reasonably assured.
It will be interesting to see how TSLA (and their auditors) consider loading a vehicle on a common carrier in Fremont on 12/31/12, knowing that the customer 'wants' to accept the vehicle so they can claim their $7,500 tax credit in 2012. Both the seller's (TSLA) and the buyer's interests are aligned in this situation, which is somewhat unique. However, tax treatment can be different than financial accounting ...
From a vehicles shipped perspective, you should note that vehicles in the VIN sequence were still waiting for certain parts and remediation, so the highest VIN loaded onto common carriers in Fremont were not in sequential order. Further, there were vehicles in TESLA's control in other locations that were not delivered to customer nor were on common carriers, so those vehicles could be considered to be 'in transit' or 'finished goods' inventory.
Interestingly, VIN 1653 was delivered on 12/31/12. You can well imagine, and estimate, the number of VINs higher than 1653 that were still in TSLA's control as at 12/31/12.
Finally, there could be a portion of 'deferred revenue' on TSLA's balance sheet that represents payments made by customers for their Model S that was not delivered nor put on a common carrier by 12/31/12 because of remediation or missing components.
