How many kWh can they squeeze into the Model 3...?

[JOEV1]

My first computer in 1990 had 4MB memory. Everybody told me it's totally foolish to buy such a huge computer
I think in 20 years we will laugh about a car with poor 75 kwh

I am sure in 20 years we will cover the Autobahn without larger batteries because induction coils inserted in the asphalt are taking care about traffic managment (safety, navigation etc.) but also as the answer for charging while we drive.

Such technology will become necessary as there are not nearly enough Superchargers around.
EVs would be powered much like electric trains today.

 

[Yggdrasill]

I am sure in 20 years we will cover the Autobahn without larger batteries because induction coils inserted in the asphalt are taking care about traffic managment (safety, navigation etc.) but also as the answer for charging while we drive.

Such technology will become necessary as there are not nearly enough Superchargers around.
EVs would be powered much like electric trains today.

That's quite unlikely. In-road inductive charging is extremely expensive to roll out in a significant scale, and has various challenges, with road resurfacing, ice and snow, damage from 50+ ton trucks, etc. Also the efficiency will be pretty bad.

Much more likely that we have 500 mile range and 15 minute supercharge capability, where the chargers are placed every 5-10 miles on the autobahn.

 

[jkk_]

You can't get to your destination? 150 miles? Even with regenerative braking on?

He didn't say that, what he said was:

Thats a ~300 mile round trip with no charging opportunities.

So no need to distort the discussion.

HINT: Those who want to drive 90+ MPH, up hill on a 6% grade, both ways, through hub deep snow, in sub-freezing temperatures with all seats filled with people who weigh in excess of 250 lbs, while towing at maximum capacity to complete the round trip in record time without stopping to charge at all are not likely to be satisfied prior to 2025. Then they will, of course, move the goal posts again. Because they have no intention of ever being satisfied by electric vehicles.

To be fair, there are people who will always be moving the posts but I didn't get that feeling from garsh and from my POV his use case is perfect valid one and not over the top as in your example.

I don't care what anyone says it is not going to be necessary for this car.

Range or battery capacity? If range, then please do tell me that what is the magic number that I need and possible nothing more.

 

[JOEV1]

That's quite unlikely. In-road inductive charging is extremely expensive to roll out in a significant scale, and has various challenges, with road resurfacing, ice and snow, damage from 50+ ton trucks, etc. Also the efficiency will be pretty bad.

Much more likely that we have 500 mile range and 15 minute supercharge capability, where the chargers are placed every 5-10 miles on the autobahn.

to charge a 500 mile Battery in 15 minutes?! Well THAT will need some extraordinary infra structures. Cables become arm-thick to handle the amperages Already now we see charging slowing down when there are more than two cars at a SC
Not to mention the connections at the EV (plug and socket, stiffness of cable)

Besides, this induction technology is not new and can be developed further (efficiency) and would become an issue at a government level as the number of EVs on the road increases sharply and does not just concern Teslas but all EVs.
Taxis are also waiting for it ... while they wait for business at their stands and not need to pull plugs as they do so now.

 

[JOEV1]

Please allow me...To add to my comments above. It is simple maths to calculate the required power needed for such induction needed as most EV can drive on 10 to 30 kWh per 100 Km because they are already moving.
It is virtually just a replenishing of the battery. There is also no need to install this induction system everywhere on the Autobahn but in sections. The locations can be chosen at convinient places where the necessary power is already nearby or available.
To carry such large and heavy battery everywhere You go is also an issue. It affects performance, milage, and handling too.
As for winter driving, no more ice and salt or sand on the road. The inductive system will make the roads safer and that might be an even stronger argument.

 

[Yggdrasill]

to charge a 500 mile Battery in 15 minutes?! Well THAT will need some extraordinary infra structures. Cables become arm-thick to handle the amperages Already now we see charging slowing down when there are more than two cars at a SC
Not to mention the connections at the EV (plug and socket, stiffness of cable)

A 500 mile battery would be around 130 kWh in a Model 3. A liquid cooled cable and plug should be able to transfer 1000A without much difficulty. That would allow you to transfer around 400 kW. So, charging 0-70% could be done in around 14 minutes.

And the power supply would need to be combined with stationary storage batteries. If you have 12 Tesla Powerpacks at this installation, that's a buffer for 13 cars, and if you have 4 charging points, the grid connection wouldn't need to be 1600 kW. The grid connection would determine how many cars could be charged in 24 hours though. A 500 kW grid connection (pretty standard for a supercharger station today) would allow you to charge 131 cars per 24 hours.

Besides, this induction technology is not new and can be developed further (efficiency) and would become an issue at a government level as the number of EVs on the road increases sharply and does not just concern Teslas but all EVs.
Taxis are also waiting for it ... while they wait for business at their stands and not need to pull plugs as they do so now.

Not going to happen. Just wait and see.

 

[cronosx]

A 500 mile battery would be around 130 kWh in a Model 3. A liquid cooled cable and plug should be able to transfer 1000A without much difficulty. That would allow you to transfer around 400 kW. So, charging 0-70% could be done in around 14 minutes.

Just a point.. if the cable is too tick, you probably would end up using more cable, that's all

 

[Yggdrasill]

Just a point.. if the cable is too tick, you probably would end up using more cable, that's all

More likely, Tesla would just implement it's "solid snake" technology. You would no longer need to plug in - it would happen automatically.

(This will probably happen when Teslas become autonomous, anyway. So, maybe 2018.)

 

[Jayc]

A 500 mile battery would be around 130 kWh in a Model 3.

Don't forget that apart from all the technical stuff, you have to consider the costs involved in particular the following ratio:

Cost of battery
------------------------------
Cost of remainder of car

Tesla is already stretching this with Model S and I can tell you a 130kWh battery in a Model 3 is going to tip it over.

What all this means is that a huge battery such as that will most likely be fist seen on v2 of Roadster, Model S or X rather than a Model 3 and that too when the cost per kwh drops further (and along with it, improvement to charge tech)

 

[Yggdrasill]

I'm sure we won't see a 130 kWh battery in a Model 3 any time soon, but we were talking about what would be the situation in 20 years. By then we should be on the second or third generation of the Model 3!

 

[garsh]

To be fair, there are people who will always be moving the posts but I didn't get that feeling from garsh and from my POV his use case is perfect valid one and not over the top as in your example

I was just pointing out a real-world trip that I'm going to be making several times in the near future. I'd love to be able to use my Model 3 for the trip, but I might not be able to do so unless top-end range offerings are better than what the Model S offers.

As for moving the goal posts.... hell yeah, I am. I currently own a Leaf. I bought it for my work commute. It works wonderfully for that. But I ended up liking driving electric much more than I originally thought, so I try to use the Leaf for as many other trips as I can. I'm replacing it with a Model 3 because I'm "moving my goalposts". I want an electric car that can handle the 100 mile round-trip to the in-laws house. I want to be able to drive to state parks within 100 miles of where I live. The Leaf can't do that, but the Model 3 will.

I feel that Musk is wrong if he thinks that Tesla's current range offerings are adequate. I'm hoping that we'll see Model 3 top-end range closer to 400 miles, but I'm not counting on it. I'll be buying a Model 3 in either case. I'll just have to keep my minivan for the longer trips.

 

[cronosx]

It's adequate if there are enought supercharger or enought carger with the right charging speed.. if it took you 10 minute for a good 80% of the charge, i would say that the actual level is good enought. ( of course, now this is not the case, but this is the target )

If the trip is done 1 time every month i would say that 10 minutes isn't a big deal, the problem arise if you need to make this long trip often ( like 3 times a week ), in this case a bigger battery would be good.. but then, in your house it's hard to have a charger good enought so again, you probably will end up using supercharger.. so again.. i think he has a good point

 

[JOEV1]

Right now every Tesla has the Titanium Armor plate for the battery which covers most of the floor. Let a modified floor plate also act as a sensitive pick-up for energy transfer, traffic managment, communication and navigation. No extra sensors (cameras, Radar etc.) are needed which only adds to the cost of the vehicle.
BINGO, we get away with large, heavy and expensive batteries and (longer) charging times at SC.

And one does not have to drop in at a SC because of low SOC ...unless he or his family feels hungry.
Charging is done at home or at destination.

Full AP then becomes a reality even when GPS signals are poor, or the road markings are not visible.
Traffic jams and Accidents would be a thing of the past and or limited to areas without street-intigrated induction / HF tarmacs

 

[Garlan Garner]

He didn't say that, what he said was:



So no need to distort the discussion.

What are you doing? This conversation was over 2 days ago.

I quote the Red guy.

HINT: Those who want to drive 90+ MPH, up hill on a 6% grade, both ways, through hub deep snow, in sub-freezing temperatures with all seats filled with people who weigh in excess of 250 lbs, while towing at maximum capacity to complete the round trip in record time without stopping to charge at all are not likely to be satisfied prior to 2025. Then they will, of course, move the goal posts again. Because they have no intention of ever being satisfied by electric vehicle.

Are you angry about a 2 day old conversation where the OP is cool with it? WOW.

 

[jkk_]

What are you doing? This conversation was over 2 days ago.

I quote the Red guy.

HINT: Those who want to drive 90+ MPH, up hill on a 6% grade, both ways, through hub deep snow, in sub-freezing temperatures with all seats filled with people who weigh in excess of 250 lbs, while towing at maximum capacity to complete the round trip in record time without stopping to charge at all are not likely to be satisfied prior to 2025. Then they will, of course, move the goal posts again. Because they have no intention of ever being satisfied by electric vehicle.

Are you angry about a 2 day old conversation where the OP is cool with it? WOW.

Your message I was quoting isn't even 24 hours old.

Edit from this point forward: Not to mention the fact that between your message I was quoting and my message the OP hadn't even replied yet. I never said I'm angry I just pointed out that the OP never said what you were claiming he said.

As for your quote from Red I'm not sure how it's related to your message. Are you accusing me of something?

 

[jbcarioca]

?..

As for moving the goal posts.... hell yeah, I am. I currently own a Leaf. I bought it for my work commute. It works wonderfully for that. But I ended up liking driving electric much more than I originally thought, so I try to use the Leaf for as many other trips as I can....

I feel that Musk is wrong if he thinks that Tesla's current range offerings are adequate. I'm hoping that we'll see Model 3 top-end range closer to 400 miles, but I'm not counting on it. I'll be buying a Model 3 in either case. I'll just have to keep my minivan for the longer trips.

I agree with you, moving the goalposts is entirely logical as BEV technology advances. I regularly wish my P85D had at least 140kwh. Why? To deal with very cold weather, high speed travel, mountain driving and inclement weather, not to mention charging when I want to instead of when I need to.

The ideal is to have range similar to equivalently priced and equipped diesel cars.That means, for example, traveling Hamburg-Amsterdam (~300 miles) at average speed of 100mph and arrive with decent reserves. I used to make that trip regularly with a BMW 530D. The Tesla would need at least 140kwh, maybe more, to do that. Real world European driving needs MUCH more energy than does North American. Tesla must be very well aware of that need.

 

[Red Sage]

to charge a 500 mile Battery in 15 minutes?! Well THAT will need some extraordinary infra structures. Cables become arm-thick to handle the amperages Already now we see charging slowing down when there are more than two cars at a SC
Not to mention the connections at the EV (plug and socket, stiffness of cable)

If someone had a '500 mile battery' it is highly unlikely that they would literally be adding the entire 500 miles of range when they stop to recharge. Thus, it is of no consequence how long it would take to refill to maximum from zero. Much more likely that they would pull over to refill at around 20% remaining, then refill to about 80% before continuing. So, they'd have about 100 miles range remaining, and refill to 400 miles, adding only around 300 miles in fifteen minutes or less. That will likely be possible within the next five years or so, and will not require cables that are drastically thick to achieve.

Besides, this induction technology is not new and can be developed further (efficiency) and would become an issue at a government level as the number of EVs on the road increases sharply and does not just concern Teslas but all EVs.

Once again, on roads shared with heavy trucks, buses, and sometimes trains as well, the likelihood that such systems would have to be constantly repaired is palpable. Such systems work great in testing, on specially built sections of test track, that are private, and perfectly maintained, in the middle of nowhere. They have not been rolled out publicly because of the extreme expense in building and maintaining them. And that is even before we get to the issues of ride quality for cars that would have to maintain a ride height of two inches or less.

Taxis are also waiting for it ... while they wait for business at their stands and not need to pull plugs as they do so now.

Having induction charging at designated staging areas for electric taxis is just fine. They can position their vehicles precisely to make the most of the technology. But the notion of either charging as you drive, or using grid power and only a small battery pack to motivate a car is far more complicated, and vastly more inefficient. At this point using a Mr. Fusion to power an electric car is slightly more likely to come to fruition.

 

[Red Sage]

Please allow me...To add to my comments above. It is simple maths to calculate the required power needed for such induction needed as most EV can drive on 10 to 30 kWh per 100 Km because they are already moving.
It is virtually just a replenishing of the battery. There is also no need to install this induction system everywhere on the Autobahn but in sections. The locations can be chosen at convinient places where the necessary power is already nearby or available.

And just as we see broken pavement and potholes in the tarmac today, we will see it affect such induction points as well. Even if there were a section of them spaced a meter apart for the length of a full kilometer on the road you could not possibly distribute enough energy to all the vehicles passing by in those few seconds at 200 kph to 300 kph to keep them going to the next 40 kilometers or so. And the necessary power to be broadcast from those emitters would be far more than necessary through a cable. That is wasteful.

To carry such large and heavy battery everywhere You go is also an issue. It affects performance, milage, and handling too.

Until it doesn't. There are cars that require nearly 25 gallons of gasoline to travel 500 miles. That might weigh in the range of 180 to 200 lbs. No one ever considers that to be a 'waste' of weight bearing capacity, because it isn't. It is an essential part of the vehicle design to allow fuel to be taken with you. I guarantee that well before a '500 mile battery' weighs less than 400 lbs -- twice as much as for a full tank of gasoline in gas guzzlers -- the performance, handling, and range of electric vehicles will have greatly surpassed that of ICE vehicles in all market segments.

As for winter driving, no more ice and salt or sand on the road. The inductive system will make the roads safer and that might be an even stronger argument.

Are you saying this system would also melt ice, and snow by generating heat? C'mon, MAN! That is an even more gross waste of energy.

 

[Red Sage]

I'm sure we won't see a 130 kWh battery in a Model 3 any time soon, but we were talking about what would be the situation in 20 years. By then we should be on the second or third generation of the Model 3!

We were? I was talking about the next five years... I would like to have a Tesla Model ☰ P135D Coupe with Falcon Wing Doors in 2019... I figure that should be good for between 476 and 529 miles range.

 

[Red Sage]

Right now every Tesla has the Titanium Armor plate for the battery which covers most of the floor.

Actually, the Titanium Armor only covers the area under the Frunk, ahead of the battery pack in a Model S or Model X. That used to be a plastic piece instead, which could be pierced by road debris, affecting auxiliary systems that are concealed beneath the liner of the frunk. Damaging those system components could lead to improper cooling for the battery pack, which could potentially cause thermal runaway. The battery pack itself is encased in 1/4" (6.5 mm) thick aluminum. There are also aluminum pieces that are designed to direct debris away from the battery pack that act sort of like the cow catcher assembly on the front of classic trains.