How many kWh can they squeeze into the Model 3...?

[ModelNforNerd]

Interesting read via Electrek about yesterday's media walkthrough at the Gigafactory....

Tesla’s plan for Gigafactory vehicle battery pack rollout and why it matters


The part that is most interesting (at least in this context):

"Even though the battery cells themselves will be bigger than the ones currently used (18650 to 20700), the battery packs will be smaller thanks to better packaging and cooling.

At the Gigafactory event yesterday, Elon Musk said that the first vehicle battery packs will come out of the factory in about 6 months and will be used as development battery pack for the Model 3."


So, ostensibly, at least what I'm getting out of this, is that a 75kWh pack using the new Gigafactory-built architecture would be smaller than the current packs being used in the S and X.

With the improvement in drag coefficient, and the loss of a few hundred pounds here and there..... I really think they can get to 300mi on the "max range" Model 3.

 

[SabrToothSqrl]

I believe that to be a possibility, as the S is approaching 300. If the pricing model follows, a maxed out 3 will certainly look like a nice option for those of us currently looking at a CPO S85D...

Not sure 300 has a huge real world use case, but as for bragging rights, why not...

 

[JeffK]

20700

The article has this incorrect, this was changed to 21700

 

[ModelNforNerd]

I believe that to be a possibility, as the S is approaching 300. If the pricing model follows, a maxed out 3 will certainly look like a nice option for those of us currently looking at a CPO S85D...

Not sure 300 has a huge real world use case, but as for bragging rights, why not...

Well, as a current owner, you know that 300 doesn't always mean 300..... (Note: I'm not an owner, but I've read a lot on here)

I think that "300" number will be a nice psychological hurdle, as well as a little peace of mind for those of us in colder climates. Where 300 in August might be 250 in December.

 

[ModelNforNerd]

The article has this incorrect, this was changed to 21700

it was a direct cut and paste on my part. hopefully Electrek fixes on their end.

 

[JeffK]

it was a direct cut and paste on my part. hopefully Electrek fixes on their end.

It's not really their fault, every news source and even Elon until a WSJ article a few days ago said 20700. JB said 21700 in an interview and again at the press event last night.

 

[Red Sage]

If I were to guess...? Within the next eight years, there will be a version of Model ☰ with a 270 kWh to 350 kWh battery pack. How's that?

 

[ModelNforNerd]

If I were to guess...? Within the next eight years, there will be a version of Model ☰ with a 270 kWh to 350 kWh battery pack. How's that?

That's a few generations of battery pack away.

Initial production, though? I no longer think a 75 is out of the question.

 

[Lex]

I would guess that by end of next year the Model 3's pack will max out at 75, with a range similar to MS's 85 or 90 pack.

Guessing 55 or 60 as base to achieve the 211 miles or whatever has been stated.

Guess also that Tesla would love to ship everyone the bigger software locked packs, but of course not if cell production lags.

 

[Red Sage]

That's a few generations of battery pack away.

Initial production, though? I no longer think a 75 is out of the question.

Initial production? Prolly 55 kWh for base, as a software limited 75 kWh battery pack. With a 100 kWh available for Performance trim cars. So... Model ☰ 55, Model ☰ 55D, Model ☰ 75D, and Model ☰ P100D. I'd prefer if it were Model ☰ 60, Model ☰ 90, Model ☰ 90D, and Model ☰ P120D instead, though.

 

[MissAutobahn]

That's a few generations of battery pack away.

Initial production, though? I no longer think a 75 is out of the question.

My first computer in 1990 had 4MB memory. Everybody told me it's totally foolish to buy such a huge computer
I think in 20 years we will laugh about a car with poor 75 kwh

 

[Dwdnjck]

Tesla has just come out with 60 kWh versions of S and X. The supercharger network appears to be designed to work for these cars. A 215 miles model 3 will likely also be disigned to fit this model. Tesla is in the process of proving 200 miles works well. They will not likely add unpaid for batteries to the model 3, with the hope of an upgrade. I am not sure that a larger battery will even be an option. Remember, it is all about the 3.

 

[KeRaSh]

Initial production? Prolly 55 kWh for base, as a software limited 75 kWh battery pack. With a 100 kWh available for Performance trim cars. So... Model ☰ 55, Model ☰ 55D, Model ☰ 75D, and Model ☰ P100D. I'd prefer if it were Model ☰ 60, Model ☰ 90, Model ☰ 90D, and Model ☰ P120D instead, though.

Why would you want to lock the D option behind the bigger battery? I definitely want AWD but will likely not be able to afford a higher end battery option with all the other options that I want. My daily commute is 3-5 miles to work and back with a little grocery shopping once a week. I almost never drive longer distances but I will still get the SC access on day one for the convenience of having the option when I need it. Therefore the best outcome for me would be if I could get a software limited Model ☰ 55D with an option to unlock it to 70D or 75D after purchasing the car.

 

[Swampgator]

Base model 50 kwh will be good for 220 miles
Big battery will be 70 kwh and good for 305 miles. This car weighs 1000 pounds less (or more) than Model S.
Also, the 2170 batteries have 50% higher capacity just based on volume alone. And you know Tesla will have cell chemistry improvements than may give another 10-30% improvement.
This adds up to much higher cell specific energy density. Some are predicting over 350 Wh/kg
So a 70 kWh battery pack could weight roughly 500 #s, or 700 #s less than Model S pack.

 

[ModelNforNerd]

Tesla has just come out with 60 kWh versions of S and X. The supercharger network appears to be designed to work for these cars. A 215 miles model 3 will likely also be disigned to fit this model. Tesla is in the process of proving 200 miles works well. They will not likely add unpaid for batteries to the model 3, with the hope of an upgrade. I am not sure that a larger battery will even be an option. Remember, it is all about the 3.

larger battery HAS to be an option. Ludicrous mode has already been confirmed.

 

[ModelNforNerd]

Base model 50 kwh will be good for 220 miles
Big battery will be 70 kwh and good for 305 miles. This car weighs 1000 pounds less (or more) than Model S.
Also, the 2170 batteries have 50% higher capacity just based on volume alone. And you know Tesla will have cell chemistry improvements than may give another 10-30% improvement.
This adds up to much higher cell specific energy density. Some are predicting over 350 Wh/kg
So a 70 kWh battery pack could weight roughly 500 #s, or 700 #s less than Model S pack.

The other tidbit to note is with the new architecture, there is a new pack cooling setup compared to the current packs.

I'm hoping that a Model 3 75kWh pack is more efficient on its own, compared to current packs.

Because when you put pack efficiency gains, the weight loss from an S to a 3, and the aerodynamic improvements made, we're probably looking at close to 15% more range.....assuming the Model 3 75D can get close to or over 300 miles, compared to the Model S 75D's 259.

That's pretty damn impressive in such a (relatively) short amount of time.

 

[KeRaSh]

The other tidbit to note is with the new architecture, there is a new pack cooling setup compared to the current packs.

I'm hoping that a Model 3 75kWh pack is more efficient on its own, compared to current packs.

Because when you put pack efficiency gains, the weight loss from an S to a 3, and the aerodynamic improvements made, we're probably looking at close to 15% more range.....assuming the Model 3 75D can get close to or over 300 miles, compared to the Model S 75D's 259.

That's pretty damn impressive in such a (relatively) short amount of time.

Do we really know that the Model 3 will be lighter? It might be 20% smaller but they're using more steel compared to the lighter aluminum in the Model S which could negate any positive weight effects of a smaller car with a smaller battery.

 

[JeffK]

Do we really know that the Model 3 will be lighter? It might be 20% smaller but they're using more steel compared to the lighter aluminum in the Model S which could negate any positive weight effects of a smaller car with a smaller battery.

The engineers claimed it would be lighter at the reveal.

larger battery HAS to be an option. Ludicrous mode has already been confirmed.

Although I'm sure this will be true... just because Ludicrous has been confirmed doesn't necessarily mean there must be a larger battery pack. You can definitely get quicker than ludicrous times with a pack smaller than 50 kWh, range suffers, but it's not impossible.

You are right though that Tesla's business strategy and history suggest it will be bundled with a bigger battery to keep the range up.

 

[jbcarioca]

My first computer in 1990 had 4MB memory. Everybody told me it's totally foolish to buy such a huge computer
I think in 20 years we will laugh about a car with poor 75 kwh

If JB prognosticates correctly we'll see roughly double the battery pack weight/price effectiveness in less than a decade (7% pa on average, he says). Then there is continuous improvement in inverters, motors, passive loads, connections, etc. All in all we certainly will see at least 10% pa typical improvement, even though quite a large proportion will come with substantial hardware changes.

Switching to, say, 48v support systems by itself should reduce vampire drain by half or so, even though that will only happen when much of the industry changes, inevitable despite no idea when. I'll wager the advent of driving assistance (autopilot, etc) during the next five years will accelerate an industry-wide shift to higher voltage.

Then, most major manufacturers are launching several BEV's within the next couple of years. They'll all prefer higher voltage.

The industry movement will, IMHO, spawn rapid improvements in inverters, cell design/chemistry, battery management systems and electrical infrastructure in vehicles. Tesla will no longer be forced to do everything itself, and scale economies will grow.

So I am an optimist, but hopefully a realistic one.

 

[lklundin]

My first computer in 1990 had 4MB memory. Everybody told me it's totally foolish to buy such a huge computer
I think in 20 years we will laugh about a car with poor 75 kwh

But why would you think that the exponential growth of your computer's RAM capacity would say anything about the growth of energy density in batteries?

Until now, the battery energy density has been improving exponentially, at about 7% annually.

For someone else's above unsubstantiated guess 8 years into the future, that works out to about 72%, meaning that a current state of the art battery of 90 kWh would improve to about 155 kWh, i.e. far below the guessed range of 275 kWh to 350 kWh, which would require the annual growth rate to improve to between 15% and 18.5%.

Per Elon Musk, most start-up's claims regarding improvements to battery technology are utter BS, so I would be very careful about assuming a vastly improved growth rate.

But in 8 years I will probably have nothing better to do than to follow this forum, so let's see.