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How many miles are realistic to expect?

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Here's one that hit 200,000 miles last year:

Tales from a Tesla Model S at 200k miles

That is a tesloop car that is driving all day every day so I don't think it can be used as a real representation. Also it had it's battery replaced and several drive units as well. I think Age will cause more issues than actual miles with these cars. Electronics age especially if they warm up and get cold a lot.
 
I hope to have my car a long time, but a lot will depend on how much it costs to fix the things that inevitably will go eventually. The car has fewer moving parts than an ICE and I have a 2016 so they had 4 years to work out the bugs, so I expect good reliability, but there will be need for some maintenance as time goes on.

A lot will depend on how easy it is to get parts, how much of a hassle it is to get maintenance, and how expensive getting work done it. I think Tesla is going to have to eventually open up out of warranty maintenance to independent shops. When there are millions of Model 3s on the road, it's going to become necessary. I hope they do. It's a hassle to get to Portland's service center from here, though the new one will be a tiny bit closer.

I kept my last car, a 1992 Buick, for 24 years. It was super reliable, but it needed some maintenance. Fortunately it shared a lot of engine and running gear parts with Chevy pickups, so the parts were cheap and easy to find. It was also very easy to work on so labor costs were very low.

I've noticed a lot of very expensive cars depreciate dramatically when they go out of warranty in part because they are so expensive to work on. I have heard getting body parts after accidents takes a long time and they are very expensive. Out of warranty parts for Teslas could end up costing an arm and a leg and could take a long time to get new parts. Good quality parts pulled off wrecks might end up costing a lot too.

I'll see how things shake out down the road, but my plan for right now is to keep the car for a long time.
 
That is a tesloop car that is driving all day every day so I don't think it can be used as a real representation. Also it had it's battery replaced and several drive units as well. I think Age will cause more issues than actual miles with these cars. Electronics age especially if they warm up and get cold a lot.

You may be right. All modern cars are full of the same or similar electronics.

Teslas will not have to deal with internal combustion engine, transmission and exhaust component (catalytic converters, mufflers) repairs. In their place is the High Voltage Traction Battery (warrantied for 8 years) and electric motor(s). Most of the other parts are common between EVs and ICEs - wheel bearings, shocks, suspension components, interior seats, trim, etc.
 
What’s FUSC?

Free unlimited supercharging.

As far as long term reliability go, I don't know that the Model S or X will ever be long term reliable cars. Too many fancy mechanized things for that. Air suspensions, door handles, door motors for the X, LCD screens, etc, are all going to be expensive to repair and maintain.

Now, if they seriously simplify the 3 it could be a reliablility powerhouse. Tesla still has to prove that though, so we will see what they can manage long term.

Overall EVs should require less maintenance and be more reliable long term. Chevy posted a very minimal maintenance schedule for the Bolt where it needs its first major maintenance at 150k miles. Thats pretty awesome compared to an ICE, and we will see how long term reliability plays out.
 
You may be right. All modern cars are full of the same or similar electronics.

Teslas will not have to deal with internal combustion engine, transmission and exhaust component (catalytic converters, mufflers) repairs. In their place is the High Voltage Traction Battery (warrantied for 8 years) and electric motor(s). Most of the other parts are common between EVs and ICEs - wheel bearings, shocks, suspension components, interior seats, trim, etc.

All modern cars are full of the same electronics ? We have to agree to disagree on that. All the components I had issues with on my S so far were all components that do not exist on modern ICE's. I worry less on any of the drivetrain stuff on an ICE. On these cars the most expensive fixes are usually the transmission or clutch. From the mechanical standpoint I would only worry about the air suspension on the S. But on the electronics side there is a lot that can go and will go wrong.

we heard so far in this thread:
-Battery heater
-DCDC converter
-12 Volt System
-UMC
-internal chargers
- MCU's

all components not covered under the 8 year warranty.

After 8 years, any failure of the battery or Drive train and most of the components above will most likely cause the car to be to old to put in that kind of $$$ to keep it running.

If there is an issue like this on a car past it's 8 year warranty I see the most value in stripping the car for parts and use it's battery for solar storage applications than anything else.

Who really believes that there are no drive unit issues after 8 years. Right now Tesla keeps replacing them under warranty. But once the warranty is gone who in their right mind would replace one of them for 10k-20k ?

I am saying it again - I don't want to paint it all black here. But be realistic. The few components that this car has come with such a hefty price tag plus only a few shops that can actually work on them that it's very unrealistic that you will be able to or want to fix it past the drive train warranty.
 
My 5+ yr old Leaf has ~ 77k miles and is looking good as ever.

Traction battery was replaced (original batteries were terrible). The touch screen does freeze up once a week but then recovers. A couple of other minor repairs as well. It is worth only ~ $5k now so it is going to be our science experiment car.
 
Free unlimited supercharging.

As far as long term reliability go, I don't know that the Model S or X will ever be long term reliable cars. Too many fancy mechanized things for that. Air suspensions, door handles, door motors for the X, LCD screens, etc, are all going to be expensive to repair and maintain.

Now, if they seriously simplify the 3 it could be a reliablility powerhouse. Tesla still has to prove that though, so we will see what they can manage long term.

Overall EVs should require less maintenance and be more reliable long term. Chevy posted a very minimal maintenance schedule for the Bolt where it needs its first major maintenance at 150k miles. Thats pretty awesome compared to an ICE, and we will see how long term reliability plays out.

Thank you. FNG here, and still learning the jargon.
 
I am saying it again - I don't want to paint it all black here. But be realistic. The few components that this car has come with such a hefty price tag plus only a few shops that can actually work on them that it's very unrealistic that you will be able to or want to fix it past the drive train warranty.
I fully agree with this, but also want to add supply and demand. We're just recently starting to see Tesla's come out of warranty, so as more and more Tesla's need work, more and more mom-and-pop shops will be interested in picking up the labor.
 
Used to be that seat motors caused a lot of problems. Now, you never hear about them. Same with electric door windows. Sure, some things go bad and get replaced, but the longer Tesla makes these cars, the better and more reliable they get. Since they have very few moving parts, they will last longer. I don't know anyone who has had a drive unit replaced or anyone who has had battery issues. Everyone's door handles work and my daughter's falcon wings flap as intended. So these issues are not universal.

People post about a problem, and some people naturally assume this car will never make it to 200K miles, even though the warranty is for unlimited miles, with eight years for the battery. I ask people, "how often do you take your refrigerator in for service?" You buy a new one and the old one goes out to the garage. I personally won't be surprised if several of these cars go over 400,000 miles. My first one has over 100,000 miles on it. I took it in for service only when needed, usually it was covered and free, so those costs were low. My second car has 36,000 on it and I plan to keep it.
 
Everyone's door handles work
Mid-2015 car, when all the issues were supposedly fixed.

Had 1 door handle stop working within a month of getting the car.
Just had another door handle stop working last week, the drivers side, which is a pain in the butt.

So no, it's not as peachy as you claim it to be. I've had more problems with the Tesla in the 1.5 years of ownership, than I did in probably the first 5 years of my ICE car ownership. Let's call it like it is.

Tesla will get there, I'm sure. But they're not there yet.
 
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I fully agree with this, but also want to add supply and demand. We're just recently starting to see Tesla's come out of warranty, so as more and more Tesla's need work, more and more mom-and-pop shops will be interested in picking up the labor.

but first tesla needs to allow them to work on these cars. Sometimes firmware changes are needed to make a component work etc.
I want to see this happen too.
 
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If you want to delve in to that kind of detail then how much is it to replace on a MB E350:

Altenator
ECU
12 volt system
catalytic converter
etc.

I can assure you, out of warranty it's expensive and I stand by my original statement.

I have had alternators replaced too and it costs usually less than $1000 where as a charger runs at 3k to replace. All the tesla components will get better no doubt. But thinking these cars are reliable yet and low maintenance is not correct. I am not worried about the common components that Tesla buys where ICE manufacturer buy their stuff too. These components are mainly established. I worked in the industry before I even have friends who do supply Tesla.

We haven't seen any Tesla come out of warranty (not the 50k warranty) but I do expect to hear some crying by 2012 (maybe my crying) when the first vehicles loose the big $$$ component warranty.
 
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However, you are assuming that the $7500 credit means something to each buyer. Without that, the CPO looks extremely attractive, especially for those of us who prefer to pay cash.

Im not sure I understand what you are saying? Why would the $7500 not mean something, regardless of cash or credit?

The way I see it, if I order a new Tesla for say $100,000, and I am getting $7500 back, that takes the price down to $92,250. If a CPO is at $72,000, that makes the difference about $20k instead of $27,750, no?

I am not saying $20k is not a lot, it is, but your also getting a 2 year old car that is older technology. IMO, its not so straight forward.
 
I am not saying $20k is not a lot, it is, but your also getting a 2 year old car that is older technology. IMO, its not so straight forward.
This is another reason I went new in '15. The CPO program was just kicking off the ground, and all that was available was RWD non-AP cars.

Right now? I'd get a CPO AP1 car over a new AP2 and save $20k. No questions about it. By the time AP2 reaches parity, it'll take some time. By the time AP2 becomes truly FSD (even for short periods of time), I'll be ready for a new car.

Everyone's preferences are different, but AP1 is pretty damn good for road trips. I don't need a better AP. I need FSD, even in limited circumstances.
 
This is another reason I went new in '15. The CPO program was just kicking off the ground, and all that was available was RWD non-AP cars.

Right now? I'd get a CPO AP1 car over a new AP2 and save $20k. No questions about it. By the time AP2 reaches parity, it'll take some time. By the time AP2 becomes truly FSD (even for short periods of time), I'll be ready for a new car.

Everyone's preferences are different, but AP1 is pretty damn good for road trips. I don't need a better AP. I need FSD, even in limited circumstances.

Is that really the only difference in Tech between say a 2015 85D and a new 100D? I assumed some other changes have been made, I assumed that they have made other improvements over that time, but if that is it, then I would tend to agree, the $20k may be worthwhile to save.
 
Is that really the only difference in Tech between say a 2015 85D and a new 100D? I assumed some other changes have been made, I assumed that they have made other improvements over that time, but if that is it, then I would tend to agree, the $20k may be worthwhile to save.
Bio defense mode, new nose cone, adaptive headlights, white leather, all-glass roof and larger battery are all I can think of.

But you're going to see more than a $20k price delta between a 100D and an older 85D ;) The 100D starts at $97k and goes up once you add options (leather, paint color, roof, wheels, etc.).