I can see Tesla cherry picking some of these and offering them as extras, possibly part of a premium type package. Maybe Premium I and Premium II?
Model S | Tesla (scroll down to "specs", seems the link isn't working)
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Model S | Tesla (scroll down to "specs", seems the link isn't working)
This was one of the most disappointing things for me. Funny you should mention this because I spent too much time last night comparing the frunks of S vs 3. The S is much deeper and I know it got smaller with the HEPA filter, but there are pictures of people curled up inside it. That's nothing to sneeze at and is perfect for stuff like groceries.
The 3's frunk is extremely shallow. It's hard to get an idea of scaling, but it's wedge-shaped and it looks like the shallowest depth is maybe 4-5 inches? Possibly 6? That's practically nothing. Sure, it tapers up to maybe 10 inches, but at that point it hardly qualifies as storage space. I might be able to fit a couple bags of groceries in there, but that's it. Very disappointing.
I really wish they hadn't reduced the height of the hood so much. They talk about increasing visibility, but of all the visibility issues I can think of when I drive, being able to see an extra foot of ground in front of me is the least of my worries. Being able to see out over your car and onto the ground is just not a problem that needs fixing. By doing this, Tesla compromised frunk cargo space and also aesthetics because it makes the hood look stubby and anemic. I'm quite positive this increases aerodynamics though, so I'm sure that's the driving reason behind the poor hood design.
It may be tough to see the number of cancellations, because if there have been additions and cancellations, both, then the number they will announce is likely to only be a net number, and that won't be enough for us to know.
My own, anecdotal, experience is that there will be a sizeable portion that cancel and/or defer their reservation. I got 2 reservations on the opening day and may not even end up getting a single Model 3 during the time in which you still need a reservation. I'm concerned about early production vehicles, like the Model S and X in the early days, and the problems they may face for the first year or two. More than likely, I'll wait till more details come out, and then end up forgoing the tax credits and just buying one outright about 2 years later.
My thought is that I prefer to buy cars and keep them for 10-15 years and so I don't want major design flaws that bug me for the next decade. The $6k tax credit isn't enough to justify a long term frustration. Otherwise, I can't wait to get an EV with AP, and I would rather have it sooner than later.
TLDR: I think it'll be 50k+. Maybe even 100k+.
My own, anecdotal, experience is that there will be a sizeable portion that cancel and/or defer their reservation. I got 2 reservations on the opening day and may not even end up getting a single Model 3 during the time in which you still need a reservation. I'm concerned about early production vehicles, like the Model S and X in the early days, and the problems they may face for the first year or two. More than likely, I'll wait till more details come out, and then end up forgoing the tax credits and just buying one outright about 2 years later.
My thought is that I prefer to buy cars and keep them for 10-15 years and so I don't want major design flaws that bug me for the next decade. The $6k tax credit isn't enough to justify a long term frustration. Otherwise, I can't wait to get an EV with AP, and I would rather have it sooner than later.
TLDR: I think it'll be 50k+. Maybe even 100k+.
alseTrick
Active Member
So power seats, folding mirrors, navigation, voice command, driver profile memory type stuff? I could see that. You'd probably have to buy package 1 to get package 2.
Most of the other stuff is already a separate package, not applicable to the 3, or almost assuredly going to be standard (touchscreen, keyless entry, mobile app, safety features, etc).
ricardocabesa
STD free
"Some are counting on getting the credit to help financially". The credit may be over a year for some. Exactly how will it help financially? My deposit was 12/26 and am fine with Q1 2019 delivery.
Otherwise,thanks for your conjecture.
ummgood
Member
I am guessing some people are in the same boat as me. I have a very well loved 12 year old Toyota Tacoma I am driving. It is getting tired. This is the longest I have ever owned one vehicle. If I sold it now someone would get a great deal because it has been pampered and looks very good for its age. It just got hit a few days ago and I was put in a new Nissan Altima. I really want the Tesla but after driving a new car for a few days with simple things like Bluetooth, push button start, etc... I really have new car fever. I just got my truck back yesterday and they detailed it and it looks so nice and I was fine but then this morning the check engine light came on. I am really getting antsy. Please Tesla hurry! I can't wait much longer... I might go berserk and just buy a car at any moment. I make good money and my peers at work drive Audi's, BMW's etc... I am trying to be responsible but I have the itch!
Trev Page
Member
If there's something I've had to overcome in life it's impatience. I could buy a used Model S right now but I know Model 3 will be worth the wait.
Stay on target!
ricardocabesa
STD free
ricardocabesa
STD free
I just placed a deposit a few weeks ago and I'm at the far end of the anticipation spectrum. I just traded an older 3 Series BMW for a new Nissan in late August,and like you,I like all the new gadgets. But I know I'll take a beating on depreciation in 2 years when my Model 3 arrives in Q1 2019.
JeffK
Well-Known Member
I don't see it at all. The planning manufacturing capacity is saturated and you'd be relying on a large portion of reservation holders to switch. In addition, you'd be introducing additional manufacturing complexity.
A more realistic date for Model Y will be 2019/2020. There's simply too much risk in trying to streamline and ramp up the manufacture of two cars at once. I'd say they develop a good strategy with Model 3, execute, and then learn from any mistakes before starting a Model Y manufacturing line. This would also assure buyers and investors that they could meet Model 3 demand. Introducing a Model Y too early, especially with what happened to Model X, could make people lose faith for on-time deliveries.
That may only apply to people near the end of the reservation queue. Some people near the front will have to make their decision in next 6 to 9 months, and I don't see there being any significant reveal on the Y before then.
ricardocabesa
STD free
I believe they will always give you at least 1 chance to delay,if for no other reason, "it's how you treat a customer",otherwise called common sense. Specially since they've had your good faith deposit for some time.
Darryl
ModelXTracker.com Co-Adm
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It is pretty certain Tesla will hit the 200,000 U.S. Deliveries either the last quarter of 2017 or the first quarter of 2018. This information has been published. Based on the latest figures they could do this with just S and X sales and since hopefully there will be some Model 3 deliveries in 2017 I am betting on the last quarter of 2017. This would be a good thing as many of the Model 3 purchasers in 2017/2018 would at get a part of the rebate, if not the whole $7,500. Don't forget they plan on not decreasing the number of S/X made in 2017 or 2018. Since the S and X are made on a different production line this shouldn't effect Model 3 orders.
With regard to the pricing on the Model 3. Slowly over the last year the Model S and more importantly the Model X have gone up it price. Where the top of a fully loaded Model X was around $152k in 2016 it is now $170k with the last increases. This is a 10% increase in just 6 months . That doesn't even include the 6% they charge in my state which bring the total cost to $180k. There is no question there will be a correlation between the prise of a S/X and a 3.
The Model 3 is suppose to start pulling Tesla out of the red. I read there is no more than a 8-10% margin on a base Model 3. Where car manufactures make their money is on options. With the Model S and X they are offering less individual options and packaging them into groups. They are also starting to drop some of the items within groups and not offer them anymore. They latest thing to go is they no longer offer cooled seats. (No announcement, it just disappeared from the description of the luxury option on 1/1/17.) I would expect they would do this across all products. They also dropped two of the colors in 2016 but didn't add any new ones.
To make money on the Model 3 they will have to limit options into groups and limit colors and interiors. This will be the only way for them to hit their production targets of 500k in 2018. Probably no more than 3 Variations (battery sizes), 5-7 colors, the same colors which are on the Model X/S plus maybe one or two colors specific to the Model 3. There will be no more than three interior choices, a basic plus a couple of upgraded interiors like the vegan white. Even if they only charge 1/2 to 1/3 the cost of the options of what they charge on the the S/X the mid-price 3 would still be $60k+ with a fully loaded going for over $90k+.
Where this and the reduction of the rebate will eliminate some reservation holders there are a lot of Gen X's with considerable disposable income who can afford a $60k-90k car. There are also those who will purchase a bare Model 3 for $35-$45k. This is still considered a luxury car so the price is not out of line with similar ICE cars.
I have seen where people think they will get a fully loaded Model 3 PxxDL for $60k-$65k. Tesla would be loosing money at that price. Tesla has to make money on the Model 3 or this could be the end of the game for Tesla.
It is pretty certain Tesla will hit the 200,000 U.S. Deliveries either the last quarter of 2017 or the first quarter of 2018. This information has been published. Based on the latest figures they could do this with just S and X sales and since hopefully there will be some Model 3 deliveries in 2017 I am betting on the last quarter of 2017. This would be a good thing as many of the Model 3 purchasers in 2017/2018 would at get a part of the rebate, if not the whole $7,500. Don't forget they plan on not decreasing the number of S/X made in 2017 or 2018. Since the S and X are made on a different production line this shouldn't effect Model 3 orders.
With regard to the pricing on the Model 3. Slowly over the last year the Model S and more importantly the Model X have gone up it price. Where the top of a fully loaded Model X was around $152k in 2016 it is now $170k with the last increases. This is a 10% increase in just 6 months . That doesn't even include the 6% they charge in my state which bring the total cost to $180k. There is no question there will be a correlation between the prise of a S/X and a 3.
The Model 3 is suppose to start pulling Tesla out of the red. I read there is no more than a 8-10% margin on a base Model 3. Where car manufactures make their money is on options. With the Model S and X they are offering less individual options and packaging them into groups. They are also starting to drop some of the items within groups and not offer them anymore. They latest thing to go is they no longer offer cooled seats. (No announcement, it just disappeared from the description of the luxury option on 1/1/17.) I would expect they would do this across all products. They also dropped two of the colors in 2016 but didn't add any new ones.
To make money on the Model 3 they will have to limit options into groups and limit colors and interiors. This will be the only way for them to hit their production targets of 500k in 2018. Probably no more than 3 Variations (battery sizes), 5-7 colors, the same colors which are on the Model X/S plus maybe one or two colors specific to the Model 3. There will be no more than three interior choices, a basic plus a couple of upgraded interiors like the vegan white. Even if they only charge 1/2 to 1/3 the cost of the options of what they charge on the the S/X the mid-price 3 would still be $60k+ with a fully loaded going for over $90k+.
Where this and the reduction of the rebate will eliminate some reservation holders there are a lot of Gen X's with considerable disposable income who can afford a $60k-90k car. There are also those who will purchase a bare Model 3 for $35-$45k. This is still considered a luxury car so the price is not out of line with similar ICE cars.
I have seen where people think they will get a fully loaded Model 3 PxxDL for $60k-$65k. Tesla would be loosing money at that price. Tesla has to make money on the Model 3 or this could be the end of the game for Tesla.
JeffK
Well-Known Member
There are a couple points that I disagree with...
First, if the Model 3 is delayed outside of 2017 it's not possible for Tesla to hit 200,000 US deliveries in 2017 with current manufacturing capability and you are assuming 100% of the orders will be delivered in the US which is not true. If Model 3 is on time and the ramp up is as fast as Elon predicts, only then will they hit 200,000 US deliveries in 2017.
In a perfect world, they'd be up and running in 2017 Q4, assuming they hit 200,000, you'd have full tax credit until March 31st 2018. Now if we assume something 400,000 preorders and 60% are US then that's only 240,000 which need to be produced (and delivered) by March 31. This is doable if Elon's optimistic estimates are on target or even anywhere in the ballpark.
Second, on the topic of margins, Tesla would not lose money if the fully spec'd out model was 60-70k. There's zero basis for this as Tesla has publically stated many times that their margins for Model 3 are going to average 25%. I highly doubt the base model will be under 15%, the only reason the base Model S 60 is 15% is due to the 75 kWh battery.
Even in your perfect world scenario, all 240K US preorders won't get a full credit. Elon plans on 400K M3's per year with an S-curve, so even if he can hit his first year target, the first half of the production year will more than likely be closer to 35% of his intended total output, rather than 60%.
I'm probably around order #210K of those US preorders and am not getting my hopes up that I'll have my car in March or be receiving a full rebate. I'm hopeful for Q3 and $3750.
I'm probably around order #210K of those US preorders and am not getting my hopes up that I'll have my car in March or be receiving a full rebate. I'm hopeful for Q3 and $3750.
JeffK
Well-Known Member
With the experienced hires, ingenuity, and time spent preparing for Model 3, I'd hope the S curve happen in 2017, hence Elon's very broad 100k to 200k.
That said, let's pretend there's an S curve ... Since Model S and X combined will not put Tesla over 200,000 then if model 3 outputs are below 20k, they could simply delay the 200,000th car until January 1. This would give until the end of June for a full rebate.
My reservation is around the 115k (global) mark probably around 70-80k US maybe so I'm not worried.
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