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How many model 3 reservations will cancel out of 400,000?

Discussion in 'Model 3' started by number12, Jan 10, 2017.

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how many 3 reservations will cancel?

  1. 100,001+

    33 vote(s)
    20.1%
  2. 50,001-100,000

    22 vote(s)
    13.4%
  3. 25,001-50,000

    53 vote(s)
    32.3%
  4. <25,000

    56 vote(s)
    34.1%
  1. number12

    number12 Active Member

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    with tax credit expiring, options being more expensive than anticipating, personal situations changing.... how many can we expect to cancel?
     
    • Disagree x 1
  2. eSpiritIV

    eSpiritIV Member

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    Since most people put deposits after already knowing they wont get a full tax break, i think it wont be what matters to most buyers. They want the car.
     
    • Like x 2
  3. Zaxxon

    Zaxxon Supporting Member

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    I voted 100k+, however I believe some non-trivial percentage of those will cancel in favor of an S.
     
  4. dsvick

    dsvick Active Member

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    Less than 25K.

    Everyone knows the tax credit will expire, if Tesla meets even half of their anticipated production goals there should still be a few hundred thousand people that get a tax credit - even if it's just partial.
    No one knows what the options will cost yet so you can't say that they're more than anticipated. Especially since, I would hope, most people did a little research and at least looked at the Model S pricing to get an idea of what they might cost.

    I think changing personal situations will be the biggest reason people cancel. On the other hand there will be plenty of people out there that assumed they couldn't afford one that may find out they can.
     
  5. McRat

    McRat Active Member

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    Some people are wealthy. They will most likely to take delivery.
    Some people are not wealthy. They will take delivery if the timing in their life matches their call date.
    Some people are speculators. They will take delivery early on, but cancel if the market goes soft later.

    So timing is everything. Fast rollout in 2 years will have lots of drops. Fast rollout in 1 year, will have fewer. Slow rollout in 1 year will have the best retention. Wealthy-given, average/low higher chance of waiting a bit when they seen cars on the road. Speculators will retain high prices longer.
     
  6. pinski

    pinski Not Ludicrous

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    It really depends on a lot of factors.

    For me, it's a few things, most of which boil down to overall cost:

    1) Price of options - if they're too expensive and I can't get what I want, I will cancel. The Model 3 is expected to start at $35,000, which is 51.4% of the Model S base price. May be unrealistic, but I'm hoping options follow suit.

    2) Federal Tax Credit - I hope to be in the cohort receiving the full credit, but if something slips big time and I wind up in the $3750 queue or especially the $1875 or nada queues, I may cancel (dependent on price of options).

    3) Current Vehicle - the Model 3 will replace my wife's car, but if it suffers a catastrophic failure or is totaled in an accident before taking delivery, I will cancel my reservation.

    I'm not wealthy and I imagine there are a number of others in a similar situation to mine where cost can start to play a factor in the decision.
     
  7. aesculus

    aesculus Still Trying to Figure this All Out

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    I voted 100k+ based on what happened to both the Model S and Model X. Reservations outpaced early shipments. They will catch up but so many people get hyped and then reality hits (or lack thereof) when it's actually time to take delivery. Plus I also think EV early adopters are starting to saturate a bit. Tesla and the Bolt may have captured most of them already.
     
  8. flamingoezz

    flamingoezz Member

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    My bet is around 10-15% cancel, and most of that will be once the tax credit hits phase 2 and 3. A very small percentage of people who had interest in the beginning months and waited a year and a half for their model 3 are going to budge -- unless they have a financial collapse or a huge upswing and can upgrade to an S.

    There isn't a car as compelling coming to market in the next year to take business away from tesla so it'll depend mostly on if the economy stays stable and people have that loot to throw around.
     
  9. BluestarE3

    BluestarE3 Active Member

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    • A substantial number of those 400K or so reservations are outside the US, so the Federal tax credit is not applicable to them anyway
    • No pricing on Model 3 options have been announced yet, so how can you know for a fact that they are more costly than anticipated?
     
    • Like x 3
  10. number12

    number12 Active Member

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    Because it's Tesla and they can. That price will not include autopilot, decent range, etc. or it would osborn S and X. a large percentage of Americans can not afford a $50k+ car.

    A base S minus tax credit vs a 3 without a credit is a hard sell to me. Plus a year or two wait.
     
  11. ryanakata

    ryanakata Member

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    When the electrek article came out about the tax credit possibly expiring as Tesla just crossed the 100k mark, everyone in my office that had one reserved put in for a cancellation.

    This is odd considering they drive $50k+ cars now.
     
  12. number12

    number12 Active Member

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    Odd maybe, but $7500 out of "$35k" is a big deal. It's over 20%. Off an S or X it's less than 10% and customers are more affluent.

    $1000 refundable deposit isn't the biggest commitment either.
     
  13. BluestarE3

    BluestarE3 Active Member

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    Unless they're all hard-up for their thousand bucks right now, why not wait a year to see how Model 3 deliveries and cumulative Tesla U.S. sales stack up by then? If the credit is gone by then and they haven't yet received their cars, then cancel and get their deposits back. By canceling now, they'll end up in the back of the queue should they decide they want a Model 3 after all (e.g., cars begin delivering to Louisiana customers and the tax credit is still available).
     
    • Like x 1
  14. Swift

    Swift Member

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    Exactly.
     
  15. dsvick

    dsvick Active Member

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    Because they can what? Not sure what you're saying here, that they can make the option prices high? Sure, they can make them whatever they want to make them. As far as anticipation why would anyone expect them to be lower than the S of the X? Sure some will be, Elon has already mentioned dual motors will be, but anything beyond is pure speculation.

    Of course the price doesn't include autopilot, it never has, why would anyone expect differently? As for decent range, we have no idea what the range is yet, except that it will be at least 215 miles, so you can't speak to that. And besides "decent range" is completely subjective so what you consider decent may be well beyond what someone else does.

    There is no need for Tesla to protect sales of the Model S from the Model 3. The same way other companies don't protect their other models from each other. The 3 and the S are for pretty different demographics and people will get one or the other based on more than the options available.

    If a base S is more value to you with the tax credit than a reasonably loaded Model 3 without it then, by all means get the S, no one is stopping you. You're right in that respect, if someone has not already reserved they're looking at well over a year, possibly two, to get their car, and the tax credit will almost certainly be gone by then.
     
  16. S'toon

    S'toon Knows where his towel is

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    Is there some kind of unspoken assumption that all those 400,000 reservations are in the US? If not, someone thinks that most of the US reservations will cancel because of the tax credit reduction?
     
  17. dsvick

    dsvick Active Member

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    I don't think so, I'm figuring the reservations are, roughly, mirroring sales of the S and X and are about 50/50 US and elsewhere.
     
  18. alseTrick

    alseTrick Active Member

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    They'd still likely get $3,750 or at the very least, $1,875. Seems pretty stupid to cancel, but I won't complain.
     
  19. number12

    number12 Active Member

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    Will they get a credit? Who knows..

    Is it stupid to cancel a refundable $1000 spot holder..? Yes.

    - let's say there's a second hand market for a m3. They could have made $5000 flipping it. Either way they had time to wait and see. AND before someone says what if they need the $1000... then they should not have been buying any Tesla. Period.
     
  20. JeffK

    JeffK Well-Known Member

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    Consider this, if Model 3 is on time and new reservations are scheduled for mid 2018 then it's likely a vast majority of current reservation holders will get the full credit.
     
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