I think the average cargo on each ship to EU is about 3000. And about 1600 on each ship to CN.
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How many model 3s will take deliver in q1
- Thread starter generalenthu
- Start date
I think the average cargo on each ship to EU is about 3000. And about 1600 on each ship to CN.
gnuarm
Model X 100 with 72 amp chargers
Certainly there will be a pipeline that has to be filled to sell overseas. Those vehicles won't be sold in the quarter they are made and this many will always be lagging.
I hear the US deliveries are down but no one has said how much down. I'm happy to wait until they report. I'm more concerned about the dollars than the car count. No profit in Q1 will not help the stock price. Since it has been announced it should be priced into the stock. I'm hoping the model Y announcement tonight will give the stock a boost. It could sure use one.
I hear the US deliveries are down but no one has said how much down. I'm happy to wait until they report. I'm more concerned about the dollars than the car count. No profit in Q1 will not help the stock price. Since it has been announced it should be priced into the stock. I'm hoping the model Y announcement tonight will give the stock a boost. It could sure use one.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Changing my vote to < 50k - earlier I thought this was total deliveries, not just Model 3.
gnuarm
Model X 100 with 72 amp chargers
That's a pretty bad number for Tesla. Reports say they are building around 5500 a week now and with 13 weeks in the quarter that's... uh, let me take my shoes off... 71,500 model 3s in the quarter. Even if they have 10,000 at various points in the pipeline there's still another 10,000+ cars made than your estimate of cars sold.
I'm hoping that is not the case. If Tesla ends the quarter with that many cars unsold their stock will drop like a rock!
What is the lead time for ordering a car? I can't imagine if they are putting cars in parking lots waiting for buyers, they wouldn't ship a bunch to sales rooms to let people look at before they buy... oh, wait, they don't have so many sales rooms anymore. Sure hope they don't have that sort of inventory.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
There pipeline is probably a little higher and production a little lower.
As to SP dropping like a rock that has already happened.
gnuarm
Model X 100 with 72 amp chargers
The difference between a long position and a short position on a stock is the long position can only drop to zero limiting losses. A short position can rise to any number with potentially unlimited losses.
Dropping to 275 is a long way from "dropping like a rock". Tesla stock has been highly volatile and has been lower than 275 for significant periods in the last year alone.
No, there is a lot more downside potential from bad numbers at the end of this quarter.
BTW, where is Troy's vin scatter plot? It is one of the most reliable sources, but I can't find it anymore.
Teslike Model 3 Survey #3
Teslike Model 3 Survey #3
Loup Ventures q1 delivery estimate:
Model 3: 61,365
Model S/X: 21,379
Tesla Will Endure the Bumpy Road Ahead | Loup Ventures
Model 3: 61,365
Model S/X: 21,379
Tesla Will Endure the Bumpy Road Ahead | Loup Ventures
My guess is they are a bit low on model 3 deliveries and a bit high on S/X.
gnuarm
Model X 100 with 72 amp chargers
I'm not even sure what it means. Is production limited by manpower??? Does putting more people to work get more cars out the door??? That would be a big surprise to me. They have an assembly line and a process where people do what they do at a given rate. It would seem to me to be very hard to speed it up appreciably with more people or not.
Even then, why do they need "volunteers"? I'm thinking this is as much a labor cost issue as it is a production quantity issue. Or are they literally talking about "delivery"? They want people to drive cars to the customers?
Ummm... yeah. Our M3P was home delivered, and we're only 12 miles from the delivery center.
gnuarm
Model X 100 with 72 amp chargers
Even at the dealer they are a bit quick with the whole thing. Maybe they were a bit short on time because my payment took a while. I don't recall what they expected for payment, but they had not given me instruction beforehand and I only had a personal check. I offered to run up the street to get a bank check but I suppose that would have really mucked the schedule, so they guy disappeared for 15 minutes while getting approval for the personal check. He gave me the basic tour, but there is a LOT to learn about this car. Running through the list isn't really the same as learning it all.
This quarter is harder than most to predict. The error bars are huge, even for Tesla themselves. Therefore it is interesting to examine what Tesla is targetting to deliver and then guess what they can pull off. Here’s some of my thoughts and data points...
The European tracking data by some Germans showed about 25,000 orders. But on ships, maybe 24,000, but not all of those are Model 3. Norway is showing maybe 4,500 for the quarter. Historically, that’s 25-30%, but the German survey has them at closer to 20%. At 25%, that’s pointing to 18,000 in Europe.
For China, there was quite a few ships that were loaded late. Plus, due to the labeling problem, deliveries didn’t start until mid March. Assuming 1,600 per ship and 1.5 ships worth don’t make it, that’s 10,000.
Several places guess Canada at 2,000 for first two months. Might be multiple reports from the same source. Guess 2,500 for the quarter just in case.
For US, we have the InsideEVs guess at around 12,000 for the first two months. The exit Q4 inventory was around 8.5k in total, plus another week or so of production. So first two months might have 13,000 using AlphaHat’s guess to bias upwards. Last month is the clincher. Lora Kolodny’s CNBC article has some interesting tidbits:
Tesla doesn't know where it will build the Model Y as it rolls out more layoffs and cost cuts
Seems that Tesla has been burst testing to 8k and sustained rate not yet 7,000/week. To me, she is ome that would write the lowest value she could there. So she couldn’t write 6,500 or some other round figure. Let’s say Tesla’s US production in March is 3 week’s at 6,500. That’s basically 20,000. Sandeep’s email indicates 30k deliveries in 2 weeks - assuming that is US and S/X/3, also indicates 20-25k 3’s. So target for US in Q1 is 33,000-35,000.
Putting all that together, I think the target levels are 25,000 to Europe, 12,000 to China, 3,000 to Canada, and 33,000 to US for 73,000. The most extreme optimism might put the target at between 75k and 80k.
With all that has happened, reality might be that Europe can only get 17,500, China is at 9,000, Canada is actually 2,000, and US only musters 25,000. So reality is anywhere from 55,000 to 70,000.
The European tracking data by some Germans showed about 25,000 orders. But on ships, maybe 24,000, but not all of those are Model 3. Norway is showing maybe 4,500 for the quarter. Historically, that’s 25-30%, but the German survey has them at closer to 20%. At 25%, that’s pointing to 18,000 in Europe.
For China, there was quite a few ships that were loaded late. Plus, due to the labeling problem, deliveries didn’t start until mid March. Assuming 1,600 per ship and 1.5 ships worth don’t make it, that’s 10,000.
Several places guess Canada at 2,000 for first two months. Might be multiple reports from the same source. Guess 2,500 for the quarter just in case.
For US, we have the InsideEVs guess at around 12,000 for the first two months. The exit Q4 inventory was around 8.5k in total, plus another week or so of production. So first two months might have 13,000 using AlphaHat’s guess to bias upwards. Last month is the clincher. Lora Kolodny’s CNBC article has some interesting tidbits:
Tesla doesn't know where it will build the Model Y as it rolls out more layoffs and cost cuts
Seems that Tesla has been burst testing to 8k and sustained rate not yet 7,000/week. To me, she is ome that would write the lowest value she could there. So she couldn’t write 6,500 or some other round figure. Let’s say Tesla’s US production in March is 3 week’s at 6,500. That’s basically 20,000. Sandeep’s email indicates 30k deliveries in 2 weeks - assuming that is US and S/X/3, also indicates 20-25k 3’s. So target for US in Q1 is 33,000-35,000.
Putting all that together, I think the target levels are 25,000 to Europe, 12,000 to China, 3,000 to Canada, and 33,000 to US for 73,000. The most extreme optimism might put the target at between 75k and 80k.
With all that has happened, reality might be that Europe can only get 17,500, China is at 9,000, Canada is actually 2,000, and US only musters 25,000. So reality is anywhere from 55,000 to 70,000.
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Krugerrand
Meow
I don’t have enough fingers, toes or paws. My answer is a lot. Mores specifically, more than last quarter. Final answer.
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