How many model 3s will take deliver in q1

[EVNow]

I'm revising my number upwards to about 60k for Model 3. 10k to 15k for S&X.

Assuming 6k per week of production and 12 weeks gets us about 70k production. 10k from last quarter of inventory and in-transit. Additional in-transit of about 10k this quarter, leaves us with 60k Model 3.

We have only seen bearish numbers for S&X, along with large price cuts but no information on refresh. This would be consistent with low S&X delivery numbers. Could be as low as 10k.

 

[Matt L]

So I forget, what number is the street estimating?

 

[Matt L]

This one just in over 71k M3s produced

Cumulative Tesla Model 3 Production Estimate Exceeds 225,000

 

[M3BlueGeorgia]

This one just in over 71k M3s produced

Cumulative Tesla Model 3 Production Estimate Exceeds 225,000

I think it is reasonable for Tesla to build over 70K Model 3 in Q1. I expect an increase in the in-transit inventory because of Europe and China, so this won't convert fully into sales, so between 65K and 70K deliveries (which are end-customer sales) and in-transit increasing to over 10K.

All in all, pretty damn good for traditionally the worse calendar quarter for automobile sales.

Also remember, Tesla are still only scratching the surface in European sales. No RHD vehicles yet, and only the more expensive LHD models.

 

[Matt L]

I think it is reasonable for Tesla to build over 70K Model 3 in Q1. I expect an increase in the in-transit inventory because of Europe and China, so this won't convert fully into sales, so between 65K and 70K deliveries (which are end-customer sales) and in-transit increasing to over 10K.

All in all, pretty damn good for traditionally the worse calendar quarter for automobile sales.

Also remember, Tesla are still only scratching the surface in European sales. No RHD vehicles yet, and only the more expensive LHD models.

For all the distractions...they keep making and selling lots of cars.

And I’m not seeing this fall off in demand

 

[gnuarm]

For all the distractions...they keep making and selling lots of cars.

And I’m not seeing this fall off in demand

Another week to go. We will see. I haven't been digging to find the info on what people have been able to glean. So I'm just going to wait it out and hope. My stock is upside down... I mean it is below what I paid for it. If they make good numbers this quarter maybe it will recover. I've had enough of buying on the dips.

 

[AustinPowers]

Even then, why do they need "volunteers"? I'm thinking this is as much a labor cost issue as it is a production quantity issue. Or are they literally talking about "delivery"? They want people to drive cars to the customers?

I can only share my two cents: when I took delivery of my Model 3 last Thursday here in Frankfurt, Germany, I asked the delivery guy how many they currently deliver. He said between 20 and 25 per day in Frankfurt. He also said Tesla HQ would like them to deliver around 50 per day to better get rid of the backlog, but he said they just don't have the manpower. Their lot is filled with Model 3s at the moment, and there are more on the road around here every day, so there is definitely progress, but like he said, if they had enough people they could probably deliver twice as many per day than what they are currently capable of.

 

[Rebel44]

What is the Wall Street consensus for production and deliveries in Q1?

 

[PDX-JP]

Mine is scheduled for home delivery too - not really thrilled about that. I've never driven a Tesla, does the delivery guy teach you the basics like how to put it in gear and reverse and pack and such?

I just read the manual two times before picking up the car. Had the delivery guy show me the charging cable and adapters to make sure I could charge it.

 

[Doggydogworld]

What is the Wall Street consensus for production and deliveries in Q1?

Talking heads are all over map. Uberbull Trip Chowdhry said 30k. Former uberbull Adam Jonas from Morgan Stanley and the guy from Cowen say 47.5-48k. Lots of analysts are in line with Tesla's vague 55-60k quasi-guidance. Gene Munster says 61k.

TMC members skew optimistic. Shocking, I know.

 

[neroden]

I was in line with Tesla's vague 55-60k quasi-guidance, but now I suspect it might be higher -- I'm estimating 72000-78000 Model 3s *produced* and I think inventory isn't gong to rise by more than about 10K, which means they'd be up to 62K delivered at the least. So I'll go with 60K-70K.

 

[Doggydogworld]

...and I think inventory isn't gong to rise by more than about 10K

I basically agree. The plan to smooth out their overseas production cadence went in the trash can. Again. So they should have fewer Model 3s in the pipeline on March 31 than the forecasted 18,000.

China is a wildcard, though. It made sense to push as many cars as possible through Chinese customs before April 1. Remember, last fall Musk said they probably wouldn't deliver any Model 3s to China in Q1. The tariff situation caused them to suddenly change gears. Are they stockpiling a bunch of "15% tariff" cars in China for Q2 delivery? That's the smart business move and I don't think investors would penalize them for it.

 

[neroden]

I'm wondering when they'll have enough spare cash to allow for an inventory-in-transit buildup. Maybe Q2. Building up an inventory of 18,000 cars uses up nearly 720 million dollars in cash; while cash flow has been exceeding profit by over 800 million per quarter, it means that doing the inventory buildup all in Q1 (with its other cash headwinds) would have been kind of unpleasant for cash balances.

 

[Doggydogworld]

I'm wondering when they'll have enough spare cash to allow for an inventory-in-transit buildup. Maybe Q2. Building up an inventory of 18,000 cars uses up nearly 720 million dollars in cash; while cash flow has been exceeding profit by over 800 million per quarter, it means that doing the inventory buildup all in Q1 (with its other cash headwinds) would have been kind of unpleasant for cash balances.

They already had 8k undelivered Model 3s on 12/31, so 18k is only an additional 10k cars for about 400m. Most of which they finance, anyway, by drawing down the ABL. Which they recently expanded....

Bottom line, I don't think cash is driving things at this point. March 1 was the pinch point. And even if they do stockpile cars in China on 3/31, most would be delivered before the next pinch point in late May/early June. Of course they want the 3/31 cash number to look good, but it's secondary IMHO to deliveries, revenue and margins right now.

I think your 78k production is too high, but I could see 67-72k. I guessed 60-65k deliveries in the other thread. I think the analysts saying 48k got their hands on some bad info.

 

[neroden]

I'll tell you how I get 78K. Suppose they had about 1 week of downtime (maybe a bit low) and produced an average of 6500 cars / week (maybe a bit high). If they had 2 weeks of downtime or averaged 6000 cars per week, we get 72K, but neither theory matches the leaks I've heard.

 

[30seconds]

I just read the manual two times before picking up the car. Had the delivery guy show me the charging cable and adapters to make sure I could charge it.

check out the videos

 

[neroden]

I'm actually leaning towards 78K production at this point. Inventory buildup might be larger than I think but I currently guess that that means 65K deliveries.

 

[gnuarm]

I just read the manual two times before picking up the car. Had the delivery guy show me the charging cable and adapters to make sure I could charge it.

The charging thing seems simple and in operation it is pretty much. But I didn't fully appreciate the significance of the various charging options for some time. There are many other adapters for the mobile cable (the one that comes with the car) and you can have a "wall connector" installed in your home which is essentially a destination charger. These are level 2 charging and take over night to charge up the car. When encountering these in the wild they aren't much good for anything like rapid charging only giving you 6% to 15% charge in an hour.

On trips the only useful solution (other than when staying overnight) is the Supercharger (a type of level 3 charger). There are always units at locations you should be able to reach, but you may not get to fully utilize the range in your car since the Superchargers are often not very close together. Superchargers are not so good for local charging since they are much slower than filling an ICE with gas and they likely aren't so close to drive to. The best local charging is always at home.

 

[gnuarm]

I'm wondering when they'll have enough spare cash to allow for an inventory-in-transit buildup. Maybe Q2. Building up an inventory of 18,000 cars uses up nearly 720 million dollars in cash; while cash flow has been exceeding profit by over 800 million per quarter, it means that doing the inventory buildup all in Q1 (with its other cash headwinds) would have been kind of unpleasant for cash balances.

I was discussing Tesla's cash in another thread and someone pointed out that they can get loans based on inventory. So the large number of cars in transit may not subtract from the cash so much. Not sure if they will get such a loan if they don't have to. But it is an option.

 

[neroden]

True, they can borrow against cars in transit for about 85% of value IIRC, so I guess it would only be a 108 million dollar hit -- not nearly as big a deal.