HW3.0 upgrade for basic AP owners now free?

[Krash]

If they are going to require HW4 to run FSD, they literally have 2 million cars they will need to upgrade.
That's $2B if it costs them $1K per car.
There is no way they will be acknowledging HW4 is required at the end of this month.

I don’t think they can upgrade to new cameras AND to HW4 for $1,000. Of course, why would Tesla upgrade everyone to HW4 if FSD might take HW5 or higher?

It will be interesting to see them walk that tightrope.

There are 2.3M total Teslas sold before 2022. Unlikely that Tesla upgrades cars without FSD purchases or subscriptions.

 

[gearchruncher]

Unlikely that Tesla upgrades cars without FSD purchases or subscriptions.

Well, they're already refusing to upgrade subscriptions from HW2 to HW3, and there's only ~150k of those cars, so we know how that will go.
"All cars have the hardware needed for full self driving" - LOL says Tesla, you didn't actually BELIEVE us, did you?

 

[Perscitus]

Will be interesting to see/hear if HW4 will be offered as an upgrade/update to HW3.x/2.x equipped units in the fleet.

Or will it simply become standard equipment (along with new senors) on more recent build date units... and eventually the rumoured 2024 2nd gen or deeper refresh of the aging 3/Y siblings.

 

[Stellavator]

Seems likely that current builds will plateau at HW3 simply because there will be other upgrades beyond the computer itself (sensors, wire harnesses, etc…) needed for next level computing that will simply be un-upgradable or fiscally nonsensical. I’m going to get the 2.5 -> 3 upgrade, and I anticipate that’s the end hardware upgrades for this car.

 

[Knightshade]

If they are going to require HW4 to run FSD, they literally have 2 million cars they will need to upgrade.
That's $2B if it costs them $1K per car.
There is no way they will be acknowledging HW4 is required at the end of this month.

Nowhere remotely near 2 million folks actually purchased FSD, so no they won't "need" to upgrade anywhere near that #- Troys estimates put it at a bit over 400k total vehicles.

Moreover- all of them paid way more than $1000 for FSD, in fact about 75% of them paid at least $6000 for it per Troys data, and roughly 50% paid between 7-12k (now 15k)

So even if it cost Tesla that much to upgrade the computer (and it wouldn't- they aren't selling HW3 swaps at cost certainly- estimates when HW3 was new were under -200 bucks per computer- and there's ever reason to expect HW4 cost is even lower) then the FSD sale would remain hugely profitable.

ESPECIALLY if it means they could finally fully recognize most of the 1 billion dollars plus in revenue they've had to keep on the books as a liability because they haven't delivered the promised FSD features yet (which as a reminder, for like 75% of people is fully satisfied with L2 city streets going wide release).

 

[Knightshade]

I don’t think they can upgrade to new cameras AND to HW4 for $1,000.

$1000 in cost I think they probably could... (if they were only going from 720p to 1080p it'd be trivially easy.... 4k would be a bit tougher but still easily doable)


As I mention the COST of the computer is pretty low to Tesla.

HW3 was estimated at $190 a couple years ago and such things often tend to get cheaper even as power increases-

Tesla Model 3 Autopilot Teardown Analysis Reveals Cost Savings After Hardware 3.0 Retrofit

A Tesla Model 3 Autopilot teardown by System Plus Consulting analyzed the company's cost savings after Hardware 3.0 (HW3.0) retrofits. System Plus’ observation showed Tesla’s mindfulness in terms of cost efficiencies.

www.tesmanian.com

Even if computer cost was the same, that'd leave Tesla another $100 per camera available to spend and still have enough for a cheap lunch left over- and the cameras won't cost that much esp. given the bulk they'd be buying- meaning instead of $ left over for lunch you'd have $ left over for labor.

Of course, why would Tesla upgrade everyone to HW4 if FSD might take HW5 or higher?

Worth noting they did not start upgrading HW2.x computers until there were actually any features in wide release that required it- so I'd expect the same with any future upgrade.

There are 2.3M total Teslas sold before 2022. Unlikely that Tesla upgrades cars without FSD purchases or subscriptions.

100% they'd only be free-upgrading owners (not renters) of FSD, just like they did for HW3.

 

[gearchruncher]

The irony here is the HW2 cars are owed the most. Cars purchased with HW2/2.5 were clearly advertised L4, nobody even in the car.
HW3 buyers were only promised L2 city streets autosteer, which is already here.

 

[Knightshade]

The irony here is the HW2 cars are owed the most. Cars purchased with HW2/2.5 were clearly advertised L4, nobody even in the car.
HW3 buyers were only promised L2 city streets autosteer, which is already here.

That's not actually true though-- because all HW2 cars that actually bought that level of FSD long since had HW3 swapped in for free.

The (relatively small % of fleet that are) CURRENT HW2.x owners aren't "owed" anything regarding FSD because they didn't buy FSD. And if they did so today they'd only be owed what TODAYs FSD promises (which is L2 on city streets).



That said- the general idea that those pre March 2019 buyers are owed more is exactly what I pointed out 2 posts before yours so not sure why you mention it again like it's a new thing.

I also pointed out the folks in the L4 group are an increasingly small minority of the fleet at this point- hence just releasing L2 city streets lets them recognize most of the deferred FSD revenue since that is all that they still officially "owe" most FSD owners.

 

[travis1906]

Submitted for HW3 upgrade. Estimate was for the $1000. Have a 2019 M3 Mid-Range. Purchased EAP a couple years ago. Live in Northern Virginia. Canceled the appointment.

 

[vickh]

Submitted for HW3 upgrade. Estimate was for the $1000. Have a 2019 M3 Mid-Range. Purchased EAP a couple years ago. Live in Northern Virginia. Canceled the appointment.

Same here. This seems to be an error for some service centers not putting in the right billing codes. Congrats to those to got/get in.

 

[Silver_Bullet]

HW4?

Tesla Advances Plans to Implement Hardware 4.0 (HW4), Shows Patent

Tesla continues to make progress in the development of Hardware 4.0 (HW4) for installation in the latest models of its vehicles. The manufacturer filed a patent "Cold plate with integrated sliding pedestal and processing system including the same" to improve the hardware architecture.

www.tesmanian.com

 

[Krash]

HW4?

Tesla Advances Plans to Implement Hardware 4.0 (HW4), Shows Patent

Tesla continues to make progress in the development of Hardware 4.0 (HW4) for installation in the latest models of its vehicles. The manufacturer filed a patent "Cold plate with integrated sliding pedestal and processing system including the same" to improve the hardware architecture.

www.tesmanian.com

I’m sorry, but I choked on this line, “While Tesla vehicles already have the necessary hardware to achieve full self-driving (FSD)…”

 

[gearchruncher]

I’m sorry, but I choked on this line, “While Tesla vehicles already have the necessary hardware to achieve full self-driving (FSD)…”

When the bios of the two founders of the site include the lines "Cybertruck owner" and the editor lists himself as "FUD-fighter extraordinaire," you know you're deep in the truth zone. Truth that can only be funded via marked up Amazon drop shipping of 3rd party Tesla accessories.

 

[Silver_Bullet]

Any updates?

 

[snorp]

My appt got pushed to oct 11 due to waiting on parts.

 

[vickh]

My appt got pushed to oct 11 due to waiting on parts.

LOL. Rush due to free upgrades. Congrats to those that got in . I wonder if I should try again at different SC.

 

[emptyspaces]

Any updates?

My appt is tomorrow, so far we've gone from Mobile Service, to SC do it while you wait, to "leave it for 2-3 days, we'll give you a loaner", so I guess I'll let you know in 3-4 days!

 

[MrFusion4]

My appt is tomorrow, so far we've gone from Mobile Service, to SC do it while you wait, to "leave it for 2-3 days, we'll give you a loaner", so I guess I'll let you know in 3-4 days!

interesting its a couple days

 

[JayNJ]

I just had my car updated a couple months ago so I could subscribe for long trips. It took them over a week with the car at the SC. I'd be somewhat miffed if they were now doing the upgrade for free.

Geez mine was done in my drive in a few hours a year ago.

 

[gearchruncher]

My appt is tomorrow, so far we've gone from Mobile Service, to SC do it while you wait, to "leave it for 2-3 days, we'll give you a loaner", so I guess I'll let you know in 3-4 days!

Now I'm thinking the deal is that it's only free at SC's that are bored.
Here in Seattle, if you show up with an actual official recall or clear warranty work, it's "here's your Uber credits!"