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Hydrogen vs. Battery

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Which would lower the price and make it more difficult to recover the expense off all that extra mining you just did. Mining is a balance between production and demand. That's why Katanga mining is shutting down a large part of their cobalt mine later this year, overproduction of cobalt caused the price to drop too much.


I said Nickel. Prices soared due to the Indonesian ban.

New article on WSJ: they also mention the risk of future chemistry

Electric-Car Dreams Could Fall a Nickel Short

quoting from the article:

Nickel sulfate accounts for just a fraction of global nickel sales; about 70% of nickel is used in stainless steel. But auto makers will launch more than 200 new plug-in electric vehicles through 2023, consulting firm AlixPartners estimates—and that isn’t counting hybrids. UBS expects batteries in electric vehicles to account for 12% of global nickel demand by then, up from 3% in 2018.

And after years of low prices that stalled investment by global miners, nickel supply is falling short of demand. “There’s no new nickel in the pipeline,” said Angela Durrant, principal metals analyst at Wood Mackenzie, a U.K.-based consulting firm.

Betting on a demand boom is a tough business, especially for a niche commodity that isn’t easily priced or hedged. Today, trading on the London Metal Exchange is for nickel cathodes, pellets and briquettes only. Buyers typically pay a premium for battery-grade nickel sulfate, which makes pricing opaque.

The benchmark nickel price is historically volatile. It has surged roughly 70% in 2019, to about $18,000 a metric ton, because of a ban on nickel-ore exports from Indonesia that will take effect earlier than traders had expected.

There is a risk a long-term surge fueled by electric vehicles could again drive innovation and bring nickel down to earth. Still, many miners and analysts are skeptical on the options for swapping out nickel, at least for the next decade or so.



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Yea. Well... it doesn't scale like that. :D


These guys in Hawaii.. they are emotional. Emotions is what hydrogen vehicles give right now.
Not convenience, not range, pure emotions - seems electric, seems clean, seems legit.
They didn't know anything about how this thing works/made and that's how hydrogen..as of right now... exists.
 
Saw a Toyota Mirai FCEV today in Welwyn Garden City. Asked him where he was going. “Dagenham” he said. “Closest working hydrogen pump” An 80 mile round trip (over 2 hours driving) to refill. When I asked him why hydrogen not EV he said “They refill in THREE MINUTES!”
Logic failure.
on Twitter
Credit to @KarenRei for the link.
 
Logic failure.
on Twitter
Credit to @KarenRei for the link.
This just shows the extent (40 miles in this case) people will go to fill up fast. :) Also shows how much they like these cars.
The argument seems to be "fueling stations are too far, so the tech is not viable". That argument becomes invalid when more new stations open up.
Today 80 miles, tomorrow 8 miles.

This behavior not uncommon either. I hear about such things often. If Mountain View is down, people drive to San Ramon to fill up. That's 30 miles away.

BTW, that Honolulu hydrogen station opened one year ago. I don't know why they made a video on it a year later. That's old news.
 
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I think, if every major city had a few (5) hydrogen stations, these cars could sell in tens of thousands each year.

There is definitely at least one parallel universe where this is happening right now! Maybe even two. In the other 17,000,000,000,042 other parallel universes, the Tesla's roam like buffalo on the plains in the old West.
RT
 
The 2019 CARB Hydrogen report is couched in careful bureaucratese, as you'd expect. But a careful reading reveals that fueling station deployment is falling behind schedule, but that overall growth is limited by automakers are dragging their feet.

Finding 2: Station network development through 2018 and early 2019 has continued to remain largely on schedule [...]
development progress for the future has been adjusted compared to prior estimates, with 52 stations now expected to be open by the end of 2019 compared to 62 as previously reported.

Finding 3: Auto manufacturer projections for FCEV deployments do not demonstrate sufficient acceleration to support the FCEV deployment goals [...] the projection for 2025 represents another one year delay in reported deployment plans [...] auto manufacturer deployment projections have not yet advanced California’s projected FCEV fleet towards the 2030 goal of one million vehicles

98ozEu8.png

CARB is now projecting a gap between vehicles on the road, which are lagging badly, and station deployment, which is apparently easier to organize by government fiat. If this happens according to projections, the resulting hydrogen network won't have enough customers to be economically sustainable. Somewhat sanely, they're recommending more care in station site selection.

The tone of the report is still "Full speed ahead!" — but cracks are beginning to appear. If those cracks continue to widen, California may eventually realize that they're pushing on a string. How many years will that take? That remains to be seen.
 
....snip...You want to talk about worst case ? Consider the diesel powered school buses idling for half an hour right in front of the school for picking up the kids. Poisoning the future directly in the mouth with the worst emission possible.
That's the worst case!
Unfortunately, I must agree, even though I don’t want to. I live about 1km from a school and just this week, as the temperatures approached freezing, the air quality took a definite dive. When I went outside first thing in the morning, I smelled diesel fumes.:( It’s not even winter yet when it can be thick enough to see.
 
California's grid keeps getting cleaner too, so 2016 data is already out of date: emissions are down almost 20% from July 2016 to 2019. Total GWh are on track to be roughly the same, despite increasing numbers of plugin vehicles. Gasoline sales may have peaked, but it's too soon to be sure about that.

Mar-May are also the most curtailed for solar. Even last Sunday they curtailed on CAISO. During these times, upwards of a million EVs worth of electricity is left unused. Unfortunately, many people are still uniformed and believe they should spend $30,000 on PV and drive a gas hog SUV 20-30 mi RT to work. Yes, these are actual people, some even scientists, in the PNW where our grid is essentially carbon free hydro. Everyone in WA/OR/CA should stop driving on fossil fuels ASAP and charge between the hours of 9am-2pm. Then, once we’ve soaked up all the excess solar electricity isn’t EVs and pushed all the remaining off on neighboring coal states, then we can spend the extra R&D to produce hydrogen (or other chemical storage compounds) for longer term use.
 
The 2019 CARB Hydrogen report is couched in careful bureaucratese, as you'd expect. But a careful reading reveals that fueling station deployment is falling behind schedule, but that overall growth is limited by automakers are dragging their feet.

Finding 2: Station network development through 2018 and early 2019 has continued to remain largely on schedule [...]
development progress for the future has been adjusted compared to prior estimates, with 52 stations now expected to be open by the end of 2019 compared to 62 as previously reported.

Finding 3: Auto manufacturer projections for FCEV deployments do not demonstrate sufficient acceleration to support the FCEV deployment goals [...] the projection for 2025 represents another one year delay in reported deployment plans [...] auto manufacturer deployment projections have not yet advanced California’s projected FCEV fleet towards the 2030 goal of one million vehicles

98ozEu8.png

CARB is now projecting a gap between vehicles on the road, which are lagging badly, and station deployment, which is apparently easier to organize by government fiat. If this happens according to projections, the resulting hydrogen network won't have enough customers to be economically sustainable. Somewhat sanely, they're recommending more care in station site selection.

The tone of the report is still "Full speed ahead!" — but cracks are beginning to appear. If those cracks continue to widen, California may eventually realize that they're pushing on a string. How many years will that take? That remains to be seen.

If that is the tone, then people involved with this in CARB should all be fired. The number of stations means nothing if they constantly keep running out of hydrogen. If the report actually included the up time of those stations, they will have no place to hide.

It should be fine if CARB doesn't finance more stations. Toyota, Honda, Hyundai, Mercedes etc. have pretty deep pockets to open a few stations of their own. And they will, when they can make the cars cost effectively. Toyota's target was to sell 3000 Mirais by 2018. They have done that.
The funding from CARB for H2 stations is really minuscule. Just look at $15M they gave to San Joaquin county to run 15 Tesla trucks at Pepsico Frito's factory in Modesto. That sum could open 15 new hydrogen stations, serving 5000-7000 fuel cell cars.
 
This just shows the extent (40 miles in this case) people will go to fill up fast. :) Also shows how much they like these cars.
That’s one interpretation. Prisoners also love prison food. Look how many crimes they commit and their willingness to sacrifice the outside life in order to get in there and eat that chow. It really shows how much they like that food, right?
 
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Just look at $15M they gave to San Joaquin county to run 15 Tesla trucks at Pepsico Frito's factory in Modesto. That sum could open 15 new hydrogen stations, serving 5000-7000 fuel cell cars.

Sounds like you read a bad story about that, or didn't get past the headline. The total project is $30M, which will go to quite a few different vehicles and bits of infrastructure.

https://www.modbee.com/news/business/article235736002.html

That money will go toward buying 15 Tesla semis, 38 Volvo natural gas-powered semis, six electric Peterbilt box trucks, 12 electric forklifts and three electric yard tractors. It also will help pay for the installation of a carport with solar panels that will double the plant’s existing solar energy output, solar energy storage systems, natural gas fueling stations and electric charging stations for its fleet and employees.​

Offhand I couldn't say if $30M is a good deal for that project or not. But at a glance I don't see that the money spent on Tesla semis, solar, and charging stations will be badly spent.
 
Sounds like you read a bad story about that, or didn't get past the headline. The total project is $30M, which will go to quite a few different vehicles and bits of infrastructure.

https://www.modbee.com/news/business/article235736002.html

That money will go toward buying 15 Tesla semis, 38 Volvo natural gas-powered semis, six electric Peterbilt box trucks, 12 electric forklifts and three electric yard tractors. It also will help pay for the installation of a carport with solar panels that will double the plant’s existing solar energy output, solar energy storage systems, natural gas fueling stations and electric charging stations for its fleet and employees.​

Offhand I couldn't say if $30M is a good deal for that project or not. But at a glance I don't see that the money spent on Tesla semis, solar, and charging stations will be badly spent.
You're right, I did. Here is the article. It mention something about solar panels and storage. I was thinking, $30M is way too much for some battery powered trucks. With the details in modbee, it doesn't seem too bad.
Tesla Semi Electric Trucks Roll Into Frito-Lay Plant
The Frito-Lay plan
Pepsi's multi-faceted plan aims to turn the Modesto facility, one of Frito-Lay's largest in the U.S., into a sustainability showcase featuring zero/near zero-emission vehicles, more solar panels and storage and on-site charging stations.

The San Joaquin Valley Air Pollution Control District is contributing half of the $30.8 million cost of the project through a grant from the California Air Resources Board (CARB),..
 
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