The
2019 CARB Hydrogen report is couched in careful bureaucratese, as you'd expect. But a careful reading reveals that fueling station deployment is falling behind schedule, but that overall growth is limited by automakers are dragging their feet.
Finding 2: Station network development through 2018 and early 2019 has continued to remain largely on schedule [...]
development progress for the future has been adjusted compared to prior estimates, with 52 stations now expected to be open by the end of 2019 compared to 62 as previously reported.
Finding 3: Auto manufacturer projections for FCEV deployments do not demonstrate sufficient acceleration to support the FCEV deployment goals [...] the projection for 2025 represents another one year delay in reported deployment plans [...] auto manufacturer deployment projections have not yet advanced California’s projected FCEV fleet towards the 2030 goal of one million vehicles
CARB is now projecting a gap between vehicles on the road, which are lagging badly, and station deployment, which is apparently easier to organize by government fiat. If this happens according to projections, the resulting hydrogen network won't have enough customers to be economically sustainable. Somewhat sanely, they're recommending more care in station site selection.
The tone of the report is still "Full speed ahead!" — but cracks are beginning to appear. If those cracks continue to widen, California may eventually realize that they're pushing on a string. How many years will that take? That remains to be seen.