FutureShock
Best Coast Denizen
That seems an odd interpretation, especially of the German automakers, who’ve announced a great many EV models for future release, and who’ve already released several.
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Hydrogen vs. Battery
- Thread starter siry
- Start date
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nwdiver
Well-Known Member
???? A 10% drop in demand caused a 70% drop in value. It doesn't take much.
Imagine if you had >60 years and >$500B invested in technology (ICE, Transmissions, Emissions control) the value of which was about to go to ~$0. Would you not try to delay that? The advantage the Germans and Japanese have in that technology is about to vanish almost completely. Even much of the hybrid technology Japan has developed.... almost worthless in an EV.
That seems an odd interpretation, especially of the German automakers, who’ve announced a great many EV models for future release, and who’ve already released several.
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Not really. Think about BMW. Had the i3 on the market since 2014 and did nothing but research since then. And kept releasing PHEVs.
70% drop from a bubble top. Not much difference between 2007 and 3 years later. This graph proves nothing.
nwdiver
Well-Known Member
It proves that oil is fairly static. If demand rises it takes time to bring new supply online. Infrastructure is expensive... if demand falls you can't cost effectively reduce supply to follow quickly.
A lot of the oil majors have invested in areas where oil is only cost effective >$70/bbl. If EVs depress demand and the price of oil never goes >$70/bbl those investments are ~worthless.
What point exactly are you failing to make here???
FutureShock
Best Coast Denizen
It’s very slow until it isn’t.
Battery costs continue to fall. By 2025 or soon thereafter EVs hit cost parity with ICE vehicles. Once that happens, there’s really no reason to own an ICE car, as the fueling and maintenance costs for an EV are much less.
IOW, it becomes an ECONOMIC decision in favor of EVs by the consumer. This is what dead-enders like Exxon and Koch fear.
See above. We’re not that far from EV initial purchase cost-parity, and thus economic superiority.
Add to this that many large emerging nations have a terrible air pollution problem (China and India for instance, and they have 1/3 of the world’s population), and it’s not hard to see where the incentives line up... first for governments, and then the consumer.
IOW, just wait. My guess is you won’t have to wait long.
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nwdiver
Well-Known Member
I found some data why Japan might not be interested in CNG cars over H2 which nwdiver was suggesting
Here is the emission of several drivetrains based on German grid mix:
Treibhausgas-Bilanz: Das Klima braucht die Energiewende | ADAC
light grey: car manufacturing
dark grey: fuel preparation
yellow: emissions while driving
black: recycling
Brennstoffcelle: fuel cell
Erdgas: natural gas
regenerative: renewable electricity
Strommix D: German grid mix
Wassserstoff: Hydrogen
CNG cars emit slightly less CO2 however Hydrogen has the potential of reducing this number by transferring from blue Hydrogen to green. Cost is obviously an issue right now but Japanese are hoping to reduce it over time.
As for EVs, Japan's grid mix is worse than the German.
And looks like South Korea is in the same situation: High population densiy and can't rely on the neighbors for HVDC.
South Korea has big plans to create hydrogen cities
Here is the emission of several drivetrains based on German grid mix:
Treibhausgas-Bilanz: Das Klima braucht die Energiewende | ADAC
light grey: car manufacturing
dark grey: fuel preparation
yellow: emissions while driving
black: recycling
Brennstoffcelle: fuel cell
Erdgas: natural gas
regenerative: renewable electricity
Strommix D: German grid mix
Wassserstoff: Hydrogen
CNG cars emit slightly less CO2 however Hydrogen has the potential of reducing this number by transferring from blue Hydrogen to green. Cost is obviously an issue right now but Japanese are hoping to reduce it over time.
As for EVs, Japan's grid mix is worse than the German.
And looks like South Korea is in the same situation: High population densiy and can't rely on the neighbors for HVDC.
South Korea has big plans to create hydrogen cities
FutureShock
Best Coast Denizen
That was then, this is now... again, the Germans have released several new EVs in recent years, and have announced many more.
But if you’re simply obsessed with the formerly slow rollout, I’m sure a bright guy like you can think of many possible reasons... lack of secured battery supply, lack of large-scale expertise in EV production, waiting for others (Tesla/Nissan/GM) to prove that there was a market, etc etc.
Not too tough to figure out is it? And largely moot now, given the direction the Germans are now clearly headed (to more EVs).
That was then... again, the Germans have released several new EVs in recent years, and have announced many more.
But if you’re simply obsessed with the formerly slow rollout, I’m sure a bright guy like you can think of many possible reasons... lack of secured battery supply, lack of large-scale expertise in EV production, waiting for others (Tesla/Nissan/GM) to prove that there was a market, etc etc.
Not too tough to figure out is it? And largely moot now, given the direction the Germans are now clearly headed (to more EVs).
The majority of EVs will be coming from VW who didn't have a choice.
JohnSnowNW
Active Member
Yes, but confirmation bias appears to be getting in the way of your search.
nwdiver
Well-Known Member
Answers to what? What do you think is a myth? That the LAMEs have invested $100Bs in ICE tech? That companies want to preserve sunk investments as long as possible? That oil supply/demand is 'twitchy'... why do you think OPEC formed?
nwdiver
Well-Known Member
Um.... except the fact that H2 IS CNG... 10kg of H2 is ~13kg of CNG or possibly 13kg of coal.... so using H2 is literally worse than useless anytime soon because math.
Yeah.... you can make H2 from renewables... well done.... as mentioned numerous times.... sell your H2 and displace CNG. Until the 10B kg/yr H2 deficit is met burning 10Bkg of H2 is no different than burning 13kg of CNG.... just WAAY more expensive. MATH!
An answer to this for example:
Why does Honda CEO say this:
"The hurdles to battery electric vehicles and complete autonomous driving are still quite high," Hachigo said in an interview last month at Honda Motor Co.'s global headquarters here.
When it comes to electrification, Hachigo said, Honda will focus on gasoline-electric hybrids, not full EVs, through 2030.
"EVs will not be mainstream," the Honda CEO said,
Hachigo: Honda stays realistic on EVs, AVs
// myth: oil companies and car makers make fake FCEVs to delay BEVs
FutureShock
Best Coast Denizen
You’re behind the times. BMW has announced they’ll have 25 ‘electrified’ cars by 2023, over half of which will be fully electric.
So, over a dozen BEVs from just ONE German automaker, who isn’t VW, in the very near future. What’s not like?
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nwdiver
Well-Known Member
nwdiver
Well-Known Member
Ok... you have 10kg of H2... what lowers emission more? Using that 10kg to displace 13kg of CNG or 11kg of oil?????
And that's ignoring the cost. 10kg of H2 is worth $120. 11kg of oil is worth <$40.
Using H2 as a fuel doesn't make sense in any way until...... for like the 100th time..... the 10B kg/yr deficit is met. Why are you having such a hard time accepting reality????
As long as we're using CH4 to make H2 at a ~25% loss for stuff like fertilizer... why.... why.... WHY would any remotely rational person think it makes ANY sense to use H2 in a car for fuel???? THERE. IS. ABSOLUTELY. ZERO. BENEFIT.
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FutureShock
Best Coast Denizen
And Bob Lutz has been predicting Tesla’s death and/or downfall for years now. He only recently backed off a bit, as this thing called ‘reality’ was making a fool out of him.
IOW, sometimes auto executives are wrong. And IIRC, the Honda CEOs’ opinion here is contradicted by his own Honda Europe President, who is quite optimistic on EVs.
EVs are a paradigm shift for an industry that’s been ICE-driven for the past 100 years. Not everyone can adapt their mindset to something new and very different.
So, expect further internal debates at some automakers... which will likely cost them vis a vis competitors who are quicker to ‘get it’.
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