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Hydrogen vs. Battery

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Ok... you have 10kg of H2... what lowers emission more? Using that 10kg to displace 13kg of CNG or 11kg of oil?????

And that's ignoring the cost. 10kg of H2 is worth $120. 11kg of oil is worth <$40.

Using H2 as a fuel doesn't make sense in any way until...... for like the 100th time..... the 10B kg/yr deficit is met. Why are you having such a hard time accepting reality????


Again, they are thinking ahead. Current H2 prices aren't relevant when they are planning for the future.

Not sure I understand your oil comment. There are gasoline cars on the road, you suggested to replace them with CNG. I think it makes more sense to replace them with H2 now (if BEV is not an option for whatever reason) if H2 economy is their future plan anyway.
 
several hundred thousands of cars annually don't prove anything yet.

Um.... I would argue that it proves you can sell several hundred thousand EVs annualy.... that would appear to be axiomatic :)

You question why the CEO of Honda would make such statements about EVs.... did this confuse you also?


Again, they are thinking ahead. Current H2 prices aren't relevant when they are planning for the future.

Not sure I understand your oil comment. There are gasoline cars on the road, you suggested to replace them with CNG. I think it makes more sense to replace them with H2 now (if BEV is not an option for whatever reason) if H2 economy is their future plan anyway.

My point is that today and likely for AT LEAST the next 20 years while it makes sense to make H2 it makes no sense to use it as a fuel... how many more times do I need to repeat that very simple line?


Today and likely for AT LEAST the next 20 years while it makes sense to make H2 it makes no sense to use it as a fuel.

Finally thought of a good analogy. Using H2 as a fuel today would be like using computer processing power in the 60s to mine crypto-currency. Probably.... probably better ways to use a limited resource. Make H2 from wind and solar... that's great.... the last thing it should be used for is powering a car.... probably for the next ~20 years at least. BEVs today. H2 in 20 years.... maybe.
 
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LOL; You're ignoring reality as usual.

Using an apples-apples comparison the embedded energy of a BEV is paid back after ~80k miles. Even when powered by coal (which is less and less likely) BEVs are still ~20% better than ICE... even if that ICE is a hybrid (unless that Hybrid has a plug :))

I also seem to recall someone whining about using a worst case scenario ;)
That's no math. Just more electric fuzz using average grid mix.
Say, my average tax rate is 15% but my top tier is 3o%. if I earn an extra dollar, what is the tax rate on that dollar?

Same way, when we add BEVs to a system, it is very likely to bump up the consumption of the worst component, like coal.
If not, then that's what should be done FIRST - minimize the use of the worst component. Agreed?

Let's take the example of Indian grid that I was checking recently due to the Delhi pollution and increasing coal usage until recently.
Indian coal plants are at 51.5% utilization. indian coal is also inferior. so they burn 0.7 kg of coal/KWh, which is 0.7 kg * 2.2 lbs/kg * 44/12 (CO2/C) = 5.64 lbs of CO2/KWh. When there are electric cars, these will crank up their utilization by burning more coal to meet extra demand.
Electricity sector in India - Wikipedia
large part of the Indian coal reserve is similar to Gondwana coal: it is of low calorific value and high ash content, with poor fuel value. On average, Indian coal has a gross calorific value (GCV) of about 4500 Kcal/kg, whereas in Australia, for example, the GCV is about 6500 Kcal/kg .[74] The result is that Indian power plants using India's coal supply consume about 0.7 kg of coal per kWh of power generation, whereas in the United States thermal power plants consume about 0.45 kg of coal per kWh.

Let's say India replaces 1 million ICE cars like Camry, running at 26 mpg and annual miles of 12k miles.
With this move, India will reduce (by takign them off the road)
12000 miles /26 mpg * 19 lbs/gallon * 1 mil = 8.769 M tonnes of CO2 <= Plain vanilla ICE CO2

Then, the 1M replacement BEVs @ 333 Wh/mile will need:
12000 * 0.333 KWh * 1 mil = 4000 kWh * 5.64 lbs CO2/KWh * 1 mil
= 22.560 M tonnes of CO2! <- BEV CO2 - Net addition of 13.7 M tonnes of CO2

If we replaced the same 1 million cars with hybrid Camrys, then @ 52 mpg these will add back only half of original CO2
A net reduction of 4.384 M tonnes of CO2.

Now, look at this picture of the polar bear and cub, drifting apart in a soon to melt piece of ice floating on top of the warm water.
Do you really want to produce more CO2? Or less?
I'm not even talking about the other pollutants from coal plants, like ashes. Just CO2 alone will devastate the planet.

polar bear.jpg


CG's take:
1. Electric are are just government schemes to green wash people into buying expensive cars to boost the economy.
2. Electric cars may be helpfulk in CO2 reduction in pockets of the world where extra power is also clean, like Norway. But not in places where the extra power will come from worse sources. In future, sure, they may be better. But not today.
3. If you want results now, hybrids are here for you.
 
Same way, when we add BEVs to a system, it is very likely to bump up the consumption of the worst component, like coal.
If not, then that's what should be done FIRST - minimize the use of the worst component. Agreed?

Nope;

Screen Shot 2019-11-14 at 9.39.53 PM.png


Any grid adding wind or solar aggressively will soon have to struggle with curtailment. When you arrive at work... plug in your car... if there's 100MW of solar that's getting curtailed at 11am the grid operator can tell 30k EVs to start taking ~3kW. If demand rises they can tell those cars to stop charging. When you get home you plug in... at 2am when there's 2GW of wind being curtailed the grid operator can send a signal for cars to charge.

There's a tsunami of solar and wind curtailment coming in the next 10 years... EVs are the best way to make use of it. H2 generation can't because that surplus will occur <20% of the time and electrolysis needs to be run >90% of the time because it's so capital intensive.

Demand flexibility is going to be critical to getting renewable generation >50%. Value stacking EVs is the most cost effective way to achieve that.
 
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CG's take:
1. Electric are are just government schemes to green wash people into buying expensive cars to boost the economy.
2. Electric cars may be helpfulk in CO2 reduction in pockets of the world where extra power is also clean, like Norway. But not in places where the extra power will come from worse sources. In future, sure, they may be better. But not today.
3. If you want results now, hybrids are here for you.

1. Yes, that accurately describes FCEVs.
2. So...Europe and the USA. Fairly large pockets.
3. No one is arguing against hybrids..
 
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Say, my average tax rate is 15% but my top tier is 3o%. if I earn an extra dollar, what is the tax rate on that dollar?

..... maybe you don't understand how quickly curtailment builds or how common it can be....

SPP is the ISO that covers electric delivery to parts of Arkansas, Iowa, Kansas, Louisiana, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, New Mexico, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Texas and Wyoming. Its annual wind generation is only 25% wind.... but here is a graph of wind curtailment from 0500 11/1/19 to 0500 11/2/19.... just another typical day.

Screen Shot 2019-11-14 at 10.39.43 PM.png



Hybrids can't absorb that energy... neither can electrolysis. But BEVs could, however we need enough of them to make it worth the investment in software. This begins when wind is only ~25%... imagine how much curtailment there is at 50%. Instead of stopping a wind turbine they could start 100 BEVs charging.....
 
Here's some news on the renewably-sourced H2 front:

Air Liquide and Engie Join Forces on Renewable Hydrogen in France

The multi-stage project, called HyGreen Provence, aims to produce, store, and distribute renewable hydrogen with the first deliverables expected by the end of 2021. First initiated in 2017, the project should enable the production of 1,300 GWh of solar electricity along with renewable hydrogen on an industrial scale through water electrolysis, the partners said.

Located in Provence, the Durance, Luberon, Verdon (DLVA) urban area includes 25 municipalities. The location has land availability for the project along with 1,450 hours of sunshine annually and a salt cavity storage site that can accommodate large-scale centralized renewable hydrogen production.

The public-private partnership anticipates producing several thousand metric tons of renewable hydrogen each year for a wide variety of uses, according to the project partners.​

They go on to mention industrial uses as well as transportation. It'll be interesting to see how that plays out: check back in two years.
 
What would you say your chances might be for finding these "answers" here in this thread on this forum?

Looks like it's getting close to zero even though there are some clever folks here. But they are ok with the lazy answer (Toyota/Honda/Hyundai/BMW/etc investing in H2 just to deter the attention from batteries) which doesn't explain why does the Japanese or the Korean government want to build a hydrogen society. And a lot of other H2 investments around the World that have nothing to do with internal combustion engines.
 
Looks like it's getting close to zero even though there are some clever folks here. But they are ok with the lazy answer (Toyota/Honda/Hyundai/BMW/etc investing in H2 just to deter the attention from batteries) which doesn't explain why does the Japanese or the Korean government want to build a hydrogen society. And a lot of other H2 investments around the World that have nothing to do with internal combustion engines.

Yeah... what would make anyone think that people support H2 to support current offerings like Hybrids.... ;)

3. If you want results now, hybrids are here for you.
 
Looks like it's getting close to zero even though there are some clever folks here. But they are ok with the lazy answer (Toyota/Honda/Hyundai/BMW/etc investing in H2 just to deter the attention from batteries) which doesn't explain why does the Japanese or the Korean government want to build a hydrogen society. And a lot of other H2 investments around the World that have nothing to do with internal combustion engines.
A lot of people don't grasp the basic physics of the entire hydrogen chain and get convinced it makes sense to pursue it, as evidenced in this thread. Many people also think you can put generators in wheels and make perpetual motion machines too. Neither of those groups are correct.
 
Hydrogen Revolution Comes To California Railways, Eventually

The new “FLIRT H2” train will be built by the Swiss-based firm Stadler for the San Bernardino County Transportation Authority. It is destined for a new rail service called the Arrow, a nine-mile connector currently under construction. When completed, the Arrow will link Redlands to the San Bernardino Transit Center.

The Arrow is scheduled to start operation in 2022. The FLIRT contract calls for the new hydrogen train delivered to be delivered by 2024.

[...]

Meanwhile, Stadler and other rail stakeholders are also busy replacing diesel engines with battery powered trains. Stadler’s battery version of the FLIRT model, for example, is set to replace 55 diesel trains in the north German coastal state of Schleswig-Holstein.

[...]

California’s new Stadler train is good news for hydrogen fans, but the bigger question for hydrogen fuel cell technology is a supply chain issue, namely, where is the hydrogen coming from?

Currently, natural gas is the primary source of hydrogen for fuel cells. That opens a gigantic can of worms in terms of methane emissions related to the natural gas supply chain. It’s worth noting, though, that the grid mix for charging EVs still includes a hefty amount of natural gas and coal, too.

The good news for battery EV owners is that is access to 100% renewable electricity has been growing. Fuel cell stakeholders are looking at a similar scenario for hydrogen, though there is a long way to go before renewable H2 can catch up.​