If Tesla is getting killed on AWD what happens when.....

[voip-ninja]

I did not know about the SEC action until after I posted the above. Mark Zuckerburg is next.

Lol. Zuckerburg has dirt on everyone. He is not going anywhere. Frankly though if Elon could get him on the maiden one way trip to Mars I would be fine with that.

All you have to do is see photos of Mark Zuckerberg with tape all over his laptop camera and microphone while simultaneously telling us how secure our private data is with Facebook to know the guy is a giant weasel.

 

[voip-ninja]

He's French and his name is Jerome Guillen.

French people are good at poetry and making sandwiches not building cars or fighting wars.

 

[MXWing]

Lol. Zuckerburg has dirt on everyone. He is not going anywhere. Frankly though if Elon could get him on the maiden one way trip to Mars I would be fine with that.

Musk isn't God but was pretty crazy for Zuckerburg to start *sugar* randomly. I remember not too long ago that Zuckerberg was live-streaming a BBQ and started slamming Musk on his views on AI.

I was thinking, bitch please. Elon is trying to get to Mars and your claim to fame was Myspace 2.0...

 

[Jedi2155]

French people are good at poetry and making sandwiches not building cars or fighting wars.

One of my best engineering managers in my career was French but thats all anecdotal.....I do see some impressive medical and engineering project come out of France though.

 

[voip-ninja]

One of my best engineering managers in my career was French but thats all anecdotal.....I do see some impressive medical and engineering project come out of France though.

Your sarcasm detector or humor detector is broken. I have Anglo French ancestors and am good at lots of things beyond making a croque monsieur.

I haven’t been to war but imagine I’d be good at killing people if I really really had to. Or zombie killing, definitely good at that.

 

[AustinPowers]

Are we still holding onto the fantasy of the $35,000 Model 3?

You mean like the fantasy of the $50,000 Model S 40 back in the day?

 

[AustinPowers]

I don't usually come to Tesla's defense on these issues, but they're doing something else here that people don't seem to comment on - they're delivering literally everyone a custom car. Most auto OEMs batch produce cars, sell to dealers, and you buy something off the lot.

Like I said in another thread, this is a specialty apparently in the US only.
Usually it is the other way round, cars are built to order and delivered to the customer when ready. All legacy automakers are used to this and know how to get it right - other than in the US.

Tesla's problem seems to be that they simply haven't got enough delivery centers and staff to handle the "delivery hell" as Elon calls it. Every legacy automaker who was swamped with orders for a specific model like that would call it "delivery (and profit) heaven".

 

[bonaire]

That savings is not moot. My C300 4matic example gets 22/29 fuel economy, or about 22 in crappy stop and go rush hour traffic. If someone drives 15,000 miles a year (not uncommon in most US metro areas) then that works out to 681 gallons of premium fuel a year. At LA prices of $3.75 a gallon, that's $2554 per year spent on gas.

By comparison, @ 180 miles per charge up of a dual motor SR (napkin math year round weather, etc.) = 83.3 full "charges" of the 55 kw battery or about 4581 killowats used. At .20 per kwh works out to $916 per year.

So, $1600 less per year. or $133 per month. Savings will be even more dramatic for those who live in markets where electricity is inexpensive.

Not "moot" savings to people who live paycheck to paycheck which sadly is most Americans.

What is clear is people who live paycheck to paycheck (and yes some making $200,000+ a year do this) have a general problem in their historical spending and lifestyle. What we're talking about here is comparing one $50,000 car to a $50,000 car and choosing to sell one to buy the other in order to save money. Buying a new car is never a good economic choice due to fast depreciation. Someone buying a used Nissan Leaf or Volt is where savings really could be found. Deciding not to buy new cars "forever more" is also a new choice some feel they could make to save on monthly car payments. New car smell goes away but the payments don't. Lots of other arguments are available such as going from the C300 to a hybrid which offers > 40mpg in a urban environment and such can be found used well under $20k. That slashes the fuel costs in a very-same amount as moving to electric.

What is moot is that over the course of 10 years, the savings is simply $10,000 or so in your example (plus another in oil changes, etc.) Driving 15,000 a year is also a problem in terms of "single-occupant vehicle" transit. This is where car-share/car-pooling and ride-sharing comes into a far more beneficial savings of resources. If we're going to save money as a culture, buying new cars to save money has to be torn from our minds and replaced by more resource-friendly choices.

 

[bonaire]

I would love to live in whatever alternate reality you do, wherein it's perfectly fine to advertise a product you have no intention of delivering anytime soon, and not suffering any backlash from it at all.

Let me tell you something, that's not how retail sales work in the real world. I'm guessing that quite a few of those people who gave Tesla $1000 on release date, did so on the premise that there was going to be a car sold somewhere near the $35K price point, since oh, I dunno, THAT'S WHAT TESLA SAID THEY WOULD DO, OVER TWO YEARS AGO.

Not only are you giving Tesla CREDIT for the fact that they won't live up to their promise to these people, you're saying it would be STUPID to? How about the PR gain of "Hey you can actually buy the car we advertise on our website?" Do you think the average person gives a sh*t whether a company makes a profit at a certain price point, or do you think they trust that the company has already figured out what their margin needs to be?

I know it's real hard for folks who have never sold anything or run a business in their entire life, but sometimes you gotta give some margin in order to live up to your commitments.

Dammit man, I just wonder what flavor the Kool-Aid is sometimes.

It's complicated but those reservations led to an ability to drive wall street deals in order to save Solar City from eventual failure. It's what you do when living on the edge, I guess. The low margins on thousands of $35k delivered per month would kill Tesla, if it were a large quantity. They'd have to make it in China with slim labor costs to make it happen. That's what some car companies do now (GM, Ford and others make in-country cars that are far cheaper in cost than those sold in the USA). But will the eventual $35k car come out of Fremont, China or nowhere? Hard to know. One employee told a Tesla Model 3 buyer that over half the initial reservations were for the intention of buying a $35k base car. It's possible they sell them eventually as the US tax credits devolve but then again, losing all that margin seems to be a real tough headwind to overcome. A base Model 3 SR RWD is just as good as a LR - until the range is depleted. People are buying 75 kWh Model S in large numbers because they know they don't need the longer range 100kWh. They will do the same with Model 3 SR once it is available.

 

[svp6]

A base Model 3 SR RWD is just as good as a LR - until the range is depleted. People are buying 75 kWh Model S in large numbers because they know they don't need the longer range 100kWh. They will do the same with Model 3 SR once it is available.

Not quite. Both model 3 SR and model S 75 are slower than LR and 100, respectively. The difference is barely notable on paper for the 75 vs 100, but the seat of the pants 0-30 is different.

 

[bonaire]

Not quite. Both model 3 SR and model S 75 are slower than LR and 100, respectively. The difference is barely notable on paper for the 75 vs 100, but the seat of the pants 0-30 is different.

So what? I know a lot of people who are not living a dire need for acceleration. Slower (to me) is top-speed and that means illegal driving speeds. Quickness is the real issue off the line or the 0-60 times. For the entitled people of the world who live by "having the best", I guess this matters. But that is not what the common consumer faces - the ones wanting the 35k car, the ones who commute to work but are not trying to juice it off the line every time, or impress friends. They just want to drive. How many other car companies are being "this picky" over the acceleration numbers of their cars. Honda sells millions of vehicle a year to "the herd" of consumers who just want driving utility. That's where the numbers need to go for EV success.

 

[Swampgator]

So what? I know a lot of people who are not living a dire need for acceleration. Slower (to me) is top-speed and that means illegal driving speeds. Quickness is the real issue off the line or the 0-60 times. For the entitled people of the world who live by "having the best", I guess this matters. But that is not what the common consumer faces - the ones wanting the 35k car, the ones who commute to work but are not trying to juice it off the line every time, or impress friends. They just want to drive. How many other car companies are being "this picky" over the acceleration numbers of their cars. Honda sells millions of vehicle a year to "the herd" of consumers who just want driving utility. That's where the numbers need to go for EV success.

I would have to disagree.
Tesla makes cars that are desirable.
This is the reason EVs are gaining traction...... period. It is the only reason you see the other OEMs putting out (or talking about) competitive Evs in the near future.
Nobody gave a crap about a nissan leaf before Tesla. Only environmentalists that would be driving a prius otherwise.
Make no mistake, the sexiness of Tesla is what makes them desirable. That is the whole package...looks.....tech, and performance.
Tesla does not, and should not ever make slow (or non-quick) cars. In the future, they will make the current cars a little faster once the S and X get some updates next year. The Y will be fast. Heck, even the Semi is fast. Performance at reasonable prices sells their cars.

 

[bonaire]

Two small Volt battery packs deliver 9-second qtr mile. It's not just about the battery size.

Watch a Tesla-Powered Kit Car Run a 9-Second Quarter Mile

Fast isn't the keyword. It is quick. Fast is simply top-speed.

 

[svp6]

For the entitled people of the world who live by "having the best", I guess this matters. But that is not what the common consumer faces - the ones wanting the 35k car, the ones who commute to work but are not trying to juice it off the line every time, or impress friends. They just want to drive. How many other car companies are being "this picky" over the acceleration numbers of their cars. Honda sells millions of vehicle a year to "the herd" of consumers who just want driving utility. That's where the numbers need to go for EV success.

It has nothing to do with entitlement and all to do with the pure joy of driving a sporty car. It sure seems to me the millions Honda owners did not jump on the Leaf or the Bolt, even if they are very compelling electric cars. So yes, the fun part in driving seems to matter in the success of EVs....

My guess is the short range model 3 will be very compelling, yet very few will purchase it as a base model - even when all restrictions in production are lifted, and Tesla can afford to make as many as consumers request. How many 40 KWh model S did you see?

 

[bonaire]

It has nothing to do with entitlement and all to do with the pure joy of driving a sporty car. It sure seems to me the millions Honda owners did not jump on the Leaf or the Bolt, even if they are very compelling electric cars. So yes, the fun part in driving seems to matter in the success of EVs....

My guess is the short range model 3 will be very compelling, yet very few will purchase it as a base model - even when all restrictions in production are lifted, and Tesla can afford to make as many as consumers request. How many 40 KWh model S did you see?

MS 40 is a red herring. People would have bought it if the range they needed was under 140 on a daily basis. It would work. Running around a city and charging nightly, would be a perfect consumer commuter. Things didn't evolve and the margins were small so they killed it. But 70-75 is the sweet spot, and I think if they offered an MS 60 again with $5000 discount, it would do very well. The SR Model 3 is what people want since the supercharger network is growing and they can rely on that for their trips or the theory that they must road-trip in an electric. What the binary thinking says is "I must drive electrically at all times" while some may say "let's just take the SUV on the road trip - I commute in the electric. Everyone's different but the vast majority of consumers buy logically and economically and that's where the Model 3 35k variant fits-in. Options like 2500 paint colors and 8000 lane assist++ are not on the consumers' mind. They need low monthly payments to get the most car they can afford while the economy is good. A downturn in the economy would be problematic. And Auto analysts like Adam Jonas has stated he thinks and thought a while back that 2019 will be a huge downturn in car sales versus 2018. If that level of recession in the auto business is coming, we're all going to experience some dire situation next year in the markets. And the canary is in the coaline here - look at RV stocks - both WGO and THO - down sharply and this happened just prior to the last recession. partly due to the tariffs, partly to the interest rate raises and partly due to the exhaustion of the consumer.

 

[svp6]

MS 40 is a red herring. People would have bought it if the range they needed was under 140 on a daily basis. It would work. Running around a city and charging nightly, would be a perfect consumer commuter. Things didn't evolve and the margins were small so they killed it. But 70-75 is the sweet spot, and I think if they offered an MS 60 again with $5000 discount, it would do very well.

I am curious of the breakdown between S75D / S100D / P100D - I cannot find the data.

 

[bonaire]

I am curious of the breakdown between S75D / S100D / P100D - I cannot find the data.

Given the data stored for each of the Norway deliveries over the years, it's possible to get a good idea.

At most, 2-3% P-model MS/MX there lately.
Tesla Registration Stats

In Q3, I have the following: Thru 9/29 Q3 Norway MS/MX Deliveries

MS
70,75D,85D,90D 710
100D 151
P100D,P90D, P85D 15

MX
75D,90D 819
100D 530
P100D,P90D 16

 

[Swampgator]

Two small Volt battery packs deliver 9-second qtr mile. It's not just about the battery size.

Watch a Tesla-Powered Kit Car Run a 9-Second Quarter Mile

Fast isn't the keyword. It is quick. Fast is simply top-speed.

Semantics. Point missed entirely.

 

[Jedi2155]

Given the data stored for each of the Norway deliveries over the years, it's possible to get a good idea.

At most, 2-3% P-model MS/MX there lately.
Tesla Registration Stats

In Q3, I have the following: Thru 9/29 Q3 Norway MS/MX Deliveries

MS
70,75D,85D,90D 710
100D 151
P100D,P90D, P85D 15

MX
75D,90D 819
100D 530
P100D,P90D 16

Sure I see 5% on the Model X, but I see almost 40% (7331/18897) Model S Ps registered.

 

[bonaire]

Sure I see 5% on the Model X, but I see almost 40% (7331/18897) Model S Ps registered.

That is since inception. The early days, the novelty of the RWD P models was the draw, then the P85D. Looking at the recent changes where the non-P got additional acceleration power, the need for paying so much more for the P novelty has been nearly removed. Look at the latest 2-3 quarters only - past year sales are irrelevant for reviewing current and future MS/MX sales. If you want the punch of a P - get a used one.