They start mass delivery of SR cars early next year?
They have really got to get their *sugar* wired up. Tick tock.
They have really got to get their *sugar* wired up. Tick tock.
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If Tesla is getting killed on AWD what happens when.....
- Thread starter voip-ninja
- Start date
Tesla declares victory if they can green up Q3 and Q4.
If they have to be negative Q1 to "scale up" SR deliveries the market will forgive them.
Also, while not popular, Tesla can decide to push SR to the back half or last quarter of next year. They can cite demand for P and AWD overseas to defer SR production.
If Tesla doesn't get this crap straightened out -- they have to start delivering the correct car to the person who ordered it, on a date mutually agreed with the buyer, in decent condition -- they're dead in the water. I'm not sure how long it'll take for them to be dead in the water, but this is company-breaking stuff.
Tesla already has severe reputational / brand damage from this. If it isn't cleared up by the end of Q4 it's going to become permanent reputational damage.
Tesla already has severe reputational / brand damage from this. If it isn't cleared up by the end of Q4 it's going to become permanent reputational damage.
Jedi2155
Model 3 has Arrived.
I'm on a similar opinion on this, the brand damage from this is serious, and they have they get their act together on this by then. On the bright side, I don't see them ramping up their production much more past this (8000 Model 3's max, kind of) so I think they have a good shot at fixing it.
They pretty much went from 20-30% loading to 70-80% in a straight ramp without checking for bottlenecks. With Jerome in charge I think they'll figure it out....
I think if they offered something special to all the people who've experienced this "delivery hell" it would do much to repair the brand reputation.
I mean we love our cars, but compared to the day 1 line waiters (who waited a few hours maybe or the night before) to the people who literally sold their cars without transportation or wasted hours driving to a delivery center only to be turned back without a vehicle is much more critical.
Assuming the $$$$ (not percentage) profit margin on the SR is lower than the LR, Tesla will find it harder to be profitable with the SR. By fulfilling all the LR/AWD/P orders before the SR rather than mixing them up, they have cleared the order book of profit and could effectively hand the stock over to the shorts over the 2019 quarters.
While I understand they had to do this to survive, I think it's just a kick the can down the road scenario. The company seems to be mismanaged as can be seen from the revolving door of senior management.
Chickenlittle
Banned
Huh? Can you explain your comment
Krugerrand
Meow
Yeah, I don’t get it either.
Chickenlittle
Banned
Oh I just saw your previous post
“So I've still been wracking myself over whether I made the right decision to go with a P3D-. After hearing a few people reporting they got AWD models when they ordered Performance models (without the PUO), then was fixed with a firmware update makes me a bit concerned.
Did Tesla actually do the double burn-in and sort for the highest sigma output if they are "randomly" updating AWD models to Performance? I mean most of are already under the impression is a software "unlock" minus the binning part. It makes me wonder if this is part of the reason Track Mode was not put in for the P3D- models.
Also their website is still confusing as to whether the P3D- can do 145 or 155 MPH. The Trim options imply 155 mph with the stock chassis, but the options page states you need the upgraded package for the 155 MPH.”
Yes all conspiracy.
“So I've still been wracking myself over whether I made the right decision to go with a P3D-. After hearing a few people reporting they got AWD models when they ordered Performance models (without the PUO), then was fixed with a firmware update makes me a bit concerned.
Did Tesla actually do the double burn-in and sort for the highest sigma output if they are "randomly" updating AWD models to Performance? I mean most of are already under the impression is a software "unlock" minus the binning part. It makes me wonder if this is part of the reason Track Mode was not put in for the P3D- models.
Also their website is still confusing as to whether the P3D- can do 145 or 155 MPH. The Trim options imply 155 mph with the stock chassis, but the options page states you need the upgraded package for the 155 MPH.”
Yes all conspiracy.
Explanation? They are missing deliveries left and right. They are infuriating their customers. People are calling to try to get information about their delivery and are either not able to get through to anyone or are getting the run around. Emails and voicemails go unanswered. These aren't problems affecting a tiny # of people, we are seeing hundreds of accounts of this in these forums which likely equates to thousands of misses in the population at large.
The "AWD" delivery crush for $55,000-$75,000 cars is nothing like what is going to happen when people can finally order one for $35,000-$45,000 and are considering a Model 3 instead of a well appointed Camry or entry level BMW.
Are we still holding onto the fantasy of the $35,000 Model 3?
I believe they will ship a few thousand units to their day 1 line waiters who have kept the faith and then kill it, similarly to AWD that was "slightly cheaper" on the Model 3 than Model S, but guess we'll see.
I don't usually come to Tesla's defense on these issues, but they're doing something else here that people don't seem to comment on - they're delivering literally everyone a custom car. Most auto OEMs batch produce cars, sell to dealers, and you buy something off the lot. Now, there aren't all that many options available on the M3, and some like EAP don't involve additional hardware, but still: They've got to get the exact car you ordered to the exact spot you want it.
I also co-sign the notion that the $35K M3 will never ship. Maybe a $40K version will exist by 2020, but which still has some extra bells and whistles.
I also co-sign the notion that the $35K M3 will never ship. Maybe a $40K version will exist by 2020, but which still has some extra bells and whistles.
Honestly, I’m worried about Tesla getting their head out of their ass for Q4 let alone 35,000 Model 3.
I truly believe many people will make the Model 3 decision over Thanksgiving dinner.
That last month is going to be nucking futz.
I truly believe many people will make the Model 3 decision over Thanksgiving dinner.
That last month is going to be nucking futz.
Chickenlittle
Banned
Ok my delivery was delayed by three days because headlight not aligned to tesla standards. My reaction was to thank them for the thorough inspection. They delivered a perfect AWD car that has performed flawlessly. I guess we have different personalities. Your angry and I am happy they got it right.
That's great. Go over to AWD thread and find the other 100+ angry people still waiting on their cars, or the other 10+ page long threads with people who've had their M3 delivery delayed or cancelled in some cases 2 or 3 times. My car was actually pushed back for delivery by a week then magically available a day after the original delivery date... fortunately I was able to shuffle things around and pick it up. Not everyone has that kind of flexibility especially when trading in a car, paying off loans, etc. I was paying cash so I got lucky.
I own a Model 3. It's not perfect (lots of areas for improvement actually), but I like it. I want Tesla succeed so that they are around to service and support this car for as long as I own it.
The only way Tesla succeeds is to get a handle on their distribution and delivery problems, which appear to be epic. That's kind of the point of this thread, but by all means feel free to disagree.
It’s really easy to kick Tesla while they are down right now.
To bring some things into perspective, what would I myself do as a consumer if Tesla just disappeared tomorrow and took all their cars with them?
My list of Model 3 alternative cars would be
BMW M3
Audi RS3/RS5
Mercedes C63 AMG (lol @fnce_prof )
I would not be very happy with them compared to what I have now.
What about the iPace? Or Taycan or Etron?
You will get an AWD Model 3 before any of those.
Tesla’s lead is not infinite but they are also so far ahead of the game that all this frackery isn’t killing them.
There might be only one documented case here where someone quit on their Model 3? Would be curious if there are more.
The ones who quit prior to delivery hell vastly overestimated the time they would be waiting.
Not saying I support or encourage a smug attitude from Tesla - but they seem to know they are a hot a girl?
To bring some things into perspective, what would I myself do as a consumer if Tesla just disappeared tomorrow and took all their cars with them?
My list of Model 3 alternative cars would be
BMW M3
Audi RS3/RS5
Mercedes C63 AMG (lol @fnce_prof )
I would not be very happy with them compared to what I have now.
What about the iPace? Or Taycan or Etron?
You will get an AWD Model 3 before any of those.
Tesla’s lead is not infinite but they are also so far ahead of the game that all this frackery isn’t killing them.
There might be only one documented case here where someone quit on their Model 3? Would be curious if there are more.
The ones who quit prior to delivery hell vastly overestimated the time they would be waiting.
Not saying I support or encourage a smug attitude from Tesla - but they seem to know they are a hot a girl?
"last mile" distribution becomes much easier when they are selling the cars over many countries and thus more outlets.
Elon has recognized the issue and is starting to work on it, just takes time and money.
4th quarter should be similar to 3rd, but a lot more optimization and increasing delivery.
So there's still over 300,000 to be delivered? 1\4 of the way there.
4th quarter should be similar to 3rd, but a lot more optimization and increasing delivery.
So there's still over 300,000 to be delivered? 1\4 of the way there.
I have not a slightest doubt that it will be here. Most people will pay more for options, but the base should be here as promised.
Elon is not in this just for money, his goal is sustainable energy/future, which means mass market. And then off to Mars(not all of us
).He's collecting more profits from higher trims, which helps to ramp up and straighten out logistics. Once this is done and these expenses are out of the way, then comes SR. At that point it won't break the books.
All these upset AWD owners are getting orders filled very fast, I think we're over 2/3 done with U.S. pre-existing demand. Just look at numbers being delivered. Next year it's not just SRs. European demand for AWD/P will supplement margins nicely and provide more time for ramp up/transition to profitability at lower ASP.
I'm happy about my little contribution to this transition, even though it was less than if I bought S or X, but I did get a chance to participate early.
Hoping for the sake of all future owners that delivery/communication/repairs will only get better and seeing that those things are priority for Elon, I am optimistic it will be so.
Given their growth rate and the need to conserve cash as much as possible I think they are doing reasonably well, at least I already see progress in them moving the inventory that was stuck in various lots.
They are absolutely not building everyone a custom car. They are building RWD and dual motor cars and putting different wheels on them and painting them different colors. In case of P3D+ the car does get different brakes and suspension.
There is no indication they are "building everyone a custom car" and every indication they are batch building configurations and then matching them to outstanding orders.
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