If Tesla is getting killed on AWD what happens when.....

[Knightshade]

So the Q3 numbers came in, and they managed to deliver a couple thousand more cars than they built. If I recall correctly, Q2 they built about 12K more than they delivered, so that means there's around 10K Model 3's out there still awaiting delivery? Do I have that about right? Probably should have started a new thread but feeling kind of lazy.

As of the end of Q2 2018, Tesla had 11,166 Model 3 vehicles and 3,892 Model S and Model X in transit to customers

In Q3 they produced 53,239 3s and 26903 S/X cars
In Q3 they delivered 55,840 3s and 27,660 S/X cars

So that leaves 3135 S/X cars in transit end of Q3 compared to production and 8565 3s in transit end of Q3.

 

[bhzmark]

What is with you people here, who don't think anyone should have an opinion on Tesla, unless they have a car on order? What's so secret about your club? Can I get a cloak if I join?

What is it with you people here who don't think anyone should have an opinion in response to those who have an opinion on Tesla not delivering the cheaper car when there is still demand for the higher margin cars? What's the cause of your suffering?

Do you get similarly upset when airlines advertise a sale price to Cancun, but the demand for flights on the weekend that you want to go is sold out at the cheaper prices so only higher prices are available? And you have to wait later for your cheaper flight? Are you allergic to economics? Is that the cause of your suffering?

 

[mattjs33]

What is it with you people here who don't think anyone should have an opinion in response to those who have an opinion on Tesla not delivering the cheaper car when there is still demand for the higher margin cars? What's the cause of your suffering?

Do you get similarly upset when airlines advertise a sale price to Cancun, but the demand for flights on the weekend that you want to go is sold out at the cheaper prices so only higher prices are available? And you have to wait later for your cheaper flight? Are you allergic to economics? Is that the cause of your suffering?

You know what? I haven't posted on this thread in four days. I've said my piece. You know how I feel about it. I persisted because I thought maybe, just maybe, you wouldn't be so dense as to NOT accept the POSSIBILITY that someone MIGHT be slightly annoyed that something advertised for sale 30 months ago, is not technically available.

But no, I understand what you are now. So I let it go, even though I'm not alone in feeling this way. But you dug it back up. Thanks.

My most recent comment is directed squarely at you and others who think that because I didn't have a car on order, all my thoughts on the above were irrelevant. Which is exactly opposite of the truth, an outsider's view on delivery issues are especially poignant when you're trying to convert outsiders to insiders.

But if you want your little club to be filled with yes-men, then I guess everything is all rosy all the time.

 

[bhzmark]

Supply and demand - Wikipedia

You know what? I haven't posted on this thread in four days. I've said my piece. You know how I feel about it. I persisted because I thought maybe, just maybe, you wouldn't be so dense as to NOT accept the POSSIBILITY that someone MIGHT be slightly annoyed that something advertised for sale 30 months ago, is not technically available.

But no, I understand what you are now. So I let it go, even though I'm not alone in feeling this way. But you dug it back up. Thanks.

My most recent comment is directed squarely at you and others who think that because I didn't have a car on order, all my thoughts on the above were irrelevant. Which is exactly opposite of the truth, an outsider's view on delivery issues are especially poignant when you're trying to convert outsiders to insiders.

But if you want your little club to be filled with yes-men, then I guess everything is all rosy all the time.

 

[mattjs33]

Supply and demand - Wikipedia

False advertising - Wikipedia

 

[mattjs33]

I don't usually come to Tesla's defense on these issues, but they're doing something else here that people don't seem to comment on - they're delivering literally everyone a custom car. Most auto OEMs batch produce cars, sell to dealers, and you buy something off the lot. Now, there aren't all that many options available on the M3, and some like EAP don't involve additional hardware, but still: They've got to get the exact car you ordered to the exact spot you want it.

I think the events of the last two weeks have clearly indicated this is not the case.

I found the quote below in a different thread, but is pretty relevant here:

So I decided to call the Devon, PA delivery center. I explained my story to the delivery manager there. He said he feels terrible for the way Tesla is treating customers, and they are in the middle of changing up how they assign cars. He basically said they are now built in batches and shipped all over the USA and then matched up to customers from there, whoever can take delivery first.

I have been arguing (to much resistance) that Tesla would be better served to build to inventory. It seems this is what they've decided to do after all. I guess a new dog can learn old tricks.

 

[mongo]

I think the events of the last two weeks have clearly indicated this is not the case.

I found the quote below in a different thread, but is pretty relevant here:

I have been arguing (to much resistance) that Tesla would be better served to build to inventory. It seems this is what they've decided to do after all. I guess a new dog can learn old tricks.

My understanding:
S/X were custom built and you would get a VIN at start of production.
3 was always built in batches (thus the limited options). They originally followed the S/X model of assigning a buyer a VIN as the car was going through manufacturing, but that became a logistical pain. Now they are building in batches (based on orders), shipping cars to regions (based on orders) and contacting people (who placed the orders), to see who can buy it now.
So they are not building for inventory, all cars have orders, but they are not matching people to VINs until the last minute.

 

[mzairboy]

My understanding:
S/X were custom built and you would get a VIN at start of production.
3 was always built in batches (thus the limited options). They originally followed the S/X model of assigning a buyer a VIN as the car was going through manufacturing, but that became a logistical pain. Now they are building in batches (based on orders), shipping cars to regions (based on orders) and contacting people (who placed the orders), to see who can buy it now.
So they are not building for inventory, all cars have orders, but they are not matching people to VINs until the last minute.

I agree on the VIN being last minute. Tesla even changed their step by step order and removed the "Receive a VIN" step.

I have read, and my experience has been that the VIN only shows up under reservation number within 7 days of delivery. When my date keeps getting bumped back, the VIN disappears. Then it will show up again when within a week of scheduled delivery date.

My feeling is they are not assigning a VIN until delivery date is scheduled because they may sell your car to someone else if they can take delivery faster. How do I know? I received a VIN and paid in full. But then the car was sold to someone else. I received a new VIN and was also told they would sell it to someone else if they can pick it up before me. Not showing a VIN allows them to swap around cars. I currently have a VIN and the car is in Alabama ready to be loaded on a truck for PA. I was told that even though I have a scheduled delivery date of Oct 10, and paid in full, that the scheduling team could re route that car to someone else first.

So even if you have a VIN, paid in full, and have a scheduled delivery date, you may not get your car. I speak from experience.

 

[PremiumPackage]

I think the events of the last two weeks have clearly indicated this is not the case.

What? Obviously Tesla is batch building cars, but that's not really my point. They've got plenty of buyers for every conceivable configuration. My point is, if I order a red performance white interior delivered to Minnesota, they've got to get one of those to Minnesota. I may well have to wait until one of those red P's is ready to go at the same time another perfect combination of vehicles also coming to Minnesota, but they can't just send a red AWD and say "Hey, want this instead?"

Look at it this way. Auto inventories are an important enough economic metric that the St. Louis Fed tracks it:

Auto Inventory/Sales Ratio

Right now it's at about 2.5 months! The average auto dealer has 2.5 months of inventory just sitting on their lot! If the Tesla dealer from this weekend is any indication, they've got about 2.5 hours of inventory.

From a manufacturing perspective, because of the relatively limited options they offer what they're doing isn't that much different from other OEMs, but from a distribution perspective it's worlds apart.