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Impact of 4680 cells?

Wigan

Member
Jul 8, 2021
226
403
Maryland
What tax rebates?
There are a couple of bills that would provide credits/rebates. The Clean Energy for America Act would provide up to $10,000 in rebates, not credits, for a Tesla. The Green Act would extend the current tax credit to, I think, 600,000 cars for a $7,000 rebate. Who knows which, what, or any may eventually come to pass but there's a reasonable chance there could be something by the end of the year. Or not.
 

Terminator857

Member
Aug 5, 2019
275
297
Ca
The current infrastructure bill being advanced in the Senate does not include tax rebates for Tesla. Neither the "Clean Energy for America Act" nor the "Green Act" has sufficient votes to pass in the senate. Very wishful thinking that tax rebates can pass for Tesla.
 

Darmie

Super Member
Supporting Member
Jan 13, 2016
2,005
1,288
Clear Lake TX.
Q2 earning call noted that they are running into engineering issue with the 4680 and stated it's not a matter of if but when. I feel if there's one company in the world that can figure it out, it will be Tesla.
 
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Wigan

Member
Jul 8, 2021
226
403
Maryland
The current infrastructure bill being advanced in the Senate does not include tax rebates for Tesla. Neither the "Clean Energy for America Act" nor the "Green Act" has sufficient votes to pass in the senate. Very wishful thinking that tax rebates can pass for Tesla.
I tend to agree with you, but the truth is nobody knows. Frankly, even GM can't be pulling for them now, because if Tesla really can release a $25K car in 2023 that's eligible for a $10K point of sale rebate it's literally game over.
 
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Dasbooty

Member
May 27, 2021
42
139
Newport Beach, CA
Q2 earning call noted that they are running into engineering issue with the 4680 and stated it's not a matter of if but when. I feel if there's one company in the world that can figure it out, it will be Tesla.

Definitely when not if...Elon was saying basically that they can make the batteries, but when you try to make them "at scale" (crank them out at high volume, like they need to) there were problems. These are just engineering problems like "when we make one battery, this works, but when we try to make 1,000 batteries on a production line, the speed of production makes some bad thing happen" really they know how to make the batteries and that the batteries will be amazing in many different ways, it is just a matter of making LOTS of them. Just a matter of time and I can't wait for the 500mi range Model Ys!
 

Dasbooty

Member
May 27, 2021
42
139
Newport Beach, CA
Can't imagine this happening before the S and X get 500 mile range.
Yeah I see your point - it doesn't make sense to have the higher ranges on the "lower end" cars, but if we look at the long range model 3 compared to the model S at the time, it does seem like Tesla offered a little more range to the 3, even at the lower cost.

You could totally be right and they could release a longer range S or X. I wonder if the plaid+ models might come out with 4680s, giving out that big range?

And who know what they will call the front and rear casted model Y with 4680s and more range and (perhaps) more power? If I were to call it now, I would say Model Y Plaid coming out of Austin. You heard it here first, folks ;)
 
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tangible1

Member
Jul 8, 2021
160
97
SoCAL
Personally I disagree. I think Tesla will use the cost advantage to claim market share. I do think prices will remain the same until production ramps up, but by the end of 2022 when Berlin and Texas are online cranking at 100% and there's some legitimate competition to the current state of vehicles I think Tesla will use their cost advantage to crush Ford and GM.

Regardless, I agree, if you can, buy now. But there may be people that can't buy twice who might be better off waiting a year because they stand to get a lot more car, and potentially for less money depending on pricing and credits.
Tesla is going after market share and competitors' throats by addressing additional market segments, not by price reduction.
Tesla has major cash costs building two new factories (and maybe soon a third in India). Price reductions, particularly when competitors can't get enough batteries? Unlikely.
The CT in particular goes after the Big 3's profit center jugular veins - their pickup truck products. It won't kill, but will cripple.
The Semi takes on the balance of the transport industry.

My perspectives.
Yet we both agree, perhaps for different reasons, that not waiting, ie buying now, is reasonable.
 
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MY-Y

Active Member
Mar 4, 2020
1,051
1,168
MD
When I first became a Tesla owner in June 2020, I was sure I needed as much range as possible - 316 was barely enough. 15 months later, I've never needed over 200 miles of range. On the rare occasion I'd ever go over 250 miles without a stop, there are many superchargers, or L2 chargers at various destinations.

I'd pay a little bit more for 500 miles of range, but not 10k more. I suspect many are in the same boat.
 

DanDi58

Active Member
Jun 22, 2020
1,149
842
Dayton NJ
When I first became a Tesla owner in June 2020, I was sure I needed as much range as possible - 316 was barely enough. 15 months later, I've never needed over 200 miles of range. On the rare occasion I'd ever go over 250 miles without a stop, there are many superchargers, or L2 chargers at various destinations.
Exactly. Range may be an important number for new buyers/owners, but for me, I'm much more interested in expansion of the charging infrastructure to underserved areas, and just expansion in general to ensure minimal wait times. Only a few people can drive over 7 hours (500 mile range using 65 mph average) and if you're going to stop every 2 - 3 hours like me (and maybe many people), might as well charge up at the same time. And since one of the major selling points for Tesla right now is the Supercharger network, opening that up to other EV's means we will need a large expansion of that network.
 

tangible1

Member
Jul 8, 2021
160
97
SoCAL
My wager is that Tesla is negotiating the terms of opening up their network.
Especially, getting government subsidy funding to do expansion concurrent with the opening.
Elon Musk is The Master of milking the Government - $1B in Carbon Credits just over the last 5 qtrs, SpaceX rocket development subsidies, just to name a couple.
 
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Spidey616

Member
May 31, 2021
89
99
Morgantown WV
The current infrastructure bill being advanced in the Senate does not include tax rebates for Tesla. Neither the "Clean Energy for America Act" nor the "Green Act" has sufficient votes to pass in the senate. Very wishful thinking that tax rebates can pass for Tesla.
I was holding out for the rebates/credits but realized that it’s probably not coming anytime soon. Especially after seeing prices go up on the Y. I just decided to to buy now and lock in a price. Seems like by the time any tax credits come into play the price increases may just wipe out any savings.
 

Darmie

Super Member
Supporting Member
Jan 13, 2016
2,005
1,288
Clear Lake TX.
When I first became a Tesla owner in June 2020, I was sure I needed as much range as possible - 316 was barely enough. 15 months later, I've never needed over 200 miles of range. On the rare occasion I'd ever go over 250 miles without a stop, there are many superchargers, or L2 chargers at various destinations.

I'd pay a little bit more for 500 miles of range, but not 10k more. I suspect many are in the same boat.
To me range is KING. It's more than just range though. Higher range numbers don't just give you further drive distance. It allows you to be easier on the battery. You have a better chance of hovering around the 50% range. The added range should also give you more options to conduct A/C charging. This in turn is known to be easier on the battery.
 

Terminator857

Member
Aug 5, 2019
275
297
Ca
Perhaps, but they have capacity right now for 100k of them - meaning they will make a more substantial contribution. And perhaps more when Austin opens.
I see. S and X from 20K per quarter last year to 25K per quarter. Versus 3 and Y going from 200K per last quarter to 250K per quarter and more.
 
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cgell

Member
Jan 30, 2020
94
188
NJ
Since they already increased the size of the current battery pack I assume at some point they will raise the range with an update (for Y's with the new larger 2170 pack) to around 340-345 miles. Then when the new 4680 cells come out the pack will be the same size (kw) and have the same range. If they are going to use a bigger pack it would probably be for a new max range model. Just my guess.
 
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