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Is anyone getting a base model?

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He's not an idiot, but this is also not going to happen. Tesla has quarterly delivery goals it needs to meet and it's simply not feasible to deliver zero (or very few) cars over a 3 month period, never mind 6.

He has already hinted that they would. He specifically said that customer happiness means more than meeting some quarterly goal to this exact question.

"We always try to maximize customer happiness even if that means a revenue shortfall in a quarter. Loyalty begets loyalty." -EM tweet

Thank you kindly.
 
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How often do you drive long stretches of nothingness? I had a coworker who didn't even know how to turn on the cruise control on his 8-year-old car, but once we started taking 4 hour drives to upstate NY, very quickly did he realize the value of CC, especially on those blasted 55mph highways where it's easy to get carried away going 75.
Once or twice a year and I tend to rent anyways on those trips, where either the car doesn't have cruise or I don't bother to look through the manual to find out how to turn it on. When I have the 3, I may want to take it on those trips however instead of renting.

The more regular (closer to monthly) semi-long trips of 1-2 hours there enough hills and traffic that having cruise doesn't make much of a difference. Of course ACC or autopilot may provide a bigger advantage in more situations than just plain cruise.
 
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I'd rather *not* have dual motors given that frunk space will be at a premium. Although maybe they'll just shrink the frunk regardless. In which case, fine - twist my arm.

AP full features are a must. Max battery is a must. The rest, presuming they figure out how to have coat hooks if no pano, are completely negotiatable. Except a black headliner is a huge plus. But a totally black interior? Blyech.

Choices, choices. I'd like to time delivery for the end of Q1 or the beginning of Q2 2018 - but for that to happen a *lot* of faith will have to be conveyed.
I wouldn't bet on the single motor version having a bigger frunk. Most likely there will be a standard frunk size regardless of being AWD or not.
 
I don't know how we're supposed to decide what options we want when we can't drive the car. I can't hear the stereo, feel the ride, feel the seats, feel the acceleration, but I'm supposed to decide whether or not to buy thousands of dollars in upgrades, which will affect my position in line, and therefore whether or not I get tax rebates?
 
I don't know how we're supposed to decide what options we want when we can't drive the car. I can't hear the stereo, feel the ride, feel the seats, feel the acceleration, but I'm supposed to decide whether or not to buy thousands of dollars in upgrades, which will affect my position in line, and therefore whether or not I get tax rebates?
Based on the past model releases, the Tesla stores have sample vehicles available to check out when invites to order are sent out.
 
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You are quite the optimist.
I expect that Elon Musk will accept opportunity and challenge to 'accelerate the advent of sustainable transportation' by ramping up Production of Model ☰ in a manner that far exceeds the expectations of many.

Not really. If you demonstrate more performance in some area, they will switch to some other metric. The only one that really matters to them is how much bigger it makes people think their genitals are. They totally miss that the correlation goes the other way.
Well, this is why my Pal VIofIX will never drive my car. I won't even let him in the front seat. Not even when parked. He'll have to enjoy the 'limo position'.

When he is beaten 0-60 MPH, he'll try for the 1/4 mile. When beaten there, he'll complain of trap speed. When beaten there, he'll take note of top speed. When beaten there, he'll talk about 'handling'. When beaten there, he'll talk about 'tracking the car'. When the Nürburgring times are published, he'll claim some obscure version of the Corvette or Camaro was faster. When proven wrong, he'll just say that Elon Musk 'sucks'...

Did I mention that I'll never allow him to drive my car?
 
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There is also precedence for my concern over price creep. Model S 40 for ~ $50k post Fed tax credit didn't happen, not enough demand he said.
Yes it did. In fact, the version of the Model S 40 that was Delivered was better than promised. It had a higher amount of 'reserve space' at 20 kWh, because it was a 60 kWh battery pack derated to 40 kWh. It had a more powerful motor, because of the voltage the 60 kWh battery pack was capable of... And you had the option of unlocking the remaining capacity and adding Supercharger access, which was originally not be offered for Model S 40 at all.

Tesla Motors had around 10,000 Reservations for the Model S. Six months after the first Deliveries, over 2,500 people had received their cars... And there were 13,000 Reservations out there. Four or five months later, and with several months' backlog in the pipeline, there were still only about 4% requests for Model S 40. That was a surprise, because Tesla Motors expected it would be their best seller. Turned out that every iteration since 2012, the highest capacity battery pack available has always been the best seller for Model S.

Model X 70 was bumped up in battery capacity and base price, possibly before any 70 kW models went out the door.
Early on, it was to be a Model X 60D... But they increased the capacity to 70 kWh to have a chance at the 200+ minimum range. Apparently that didn't work either, so they increased it to 75 kWh to get the range. Nothing wrong with that at all.

I dearly want a Model 3. I want to support Tesla and the objective of electrified transportation, with the side benefit of never buying from the shark infested waters of a traditional dealership again, but I am way too close to retirement to spend $50k on a new car regardless of how great it is.
You won't have to. The base car will be $35,000 plus Destination Fee, which I guess will be ~$995. Whatever sales tax and registration fees apply in your State will be added as well. Unlike others here, I expect that Supercharger access will be included at all trim levels. Don't worry about it. The car won't cost any more than you ask for it to be. It won't be marked up to 'what the market can bear' at all.
 
I make plenty of money to afford this car, I own my house and have a great job. I just cant see myself spending $50k on ANY car.

This isn't ANY car. It's a Tesla. If you don't enjoy your money, then your kids sure will when you leave it behind since you're not taking it with you.

(At least that's how I justified my Model S because before I got the Tesla bug, I couldn't see myself spending $100k on ANY car.)
 
I don't know how we're supposed to decide what options we want when we can't drive the car. I can't hear the stereo, feel the ride, feel the seats, feel the acceleration, but I'm supposed to decide whether or not to buy thousands of dollars in upgrades, which will affect my position in line, and therefore whether or not I get tax rebates?

Heh. It occurred to me during the two-week window one has after configuring one's car that I hadn't test driven one. So after my sales guy made an appt for me at the closest showroom, off I went. The showroom is a useful place in which to see all paint colors, wood options, leather colors and so forth. The demo vehicle you are assigned may or may not have the options in which you are interested (although you can always ask in advance to improve your odds).

So back to your situation. Most of the M3 options will be similar to what's available now in an MS. You could call a showroom sometime in the next year or so, explain that you're an M3 reservation holder, and off you go.

The most costly options (P, assuming there's going to be a P), a larger battery pack, and AWD are all fairly self explanatory. Trim you can see in a showroom or online.

The audio packages, well... this depends upon you. I went middle of the road with the base package with the intention of Reusifying it. If you don't know a FLAC file from a turnip, just go with the base package and call it a day. If you've got $20K or more into your home entertainment, get the upgraded audio and then call Cliff at Reus for an appointment or to schedule an install at the next TMC Connect soirée.

Lastly, the irony is if you are not an owner and not in CA and did not sign up on day 1, then about your only shot at the full tax credit is to order a fully-loaded M3. Which somewhat obviates the point. Or not, depending upon how you look at it. Some look at the tax credit as free money and others need it to make the car attainable in the first place. Both cases are valid as, contrary to the belief of some, the point of this tax credit is not to help the less economically endowed. The point in this case is to accelerate EV adoption. Doesn't mean people making, for example, $40K/year can't benefit from the tax credit in order to get an EV. It means people making $40K/year will drive Fiat 500es. Nothing wrong with that. Tons of people in the San Joaquin Valley do just that. Why? Because they get $13K back to do so instead of $10K or less. In time, when used Model S and used Model 3s are $20K, they'll make great first cars for everybody - safe and no gas costs.

Meanwhile, don't worry about the options. But do get the black headliner. The light-colored textile one (no longer offered) was horrible. This and thousands of opinions just like it are all right here and at TM for the reading. And you've got a whole year and a half yet :).
 
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He has already hinted that they would. He specifically said that customer happiness means more than meeting some quarterly goal to this exact question.

"We always try to maximize customer happiness even if that means a revenue shortfall in a quarter. Loyalty begets loyalty." -EM tweet

Thank you kindly.
Of course he was going to say that. This is Elon we're talking about: optimistic to a fault. Key word is "try". Also, revenue shortfall means maybe they miss the delivery by a few thousand cars, not all of them. For two consecutive quarters no less. Tesla is a publicly traded company and is not going to destroy its stock just so a few extra people can get the tax credit. That is idiotic.
 
Of course he was going to say that. This is Elon we're talking about: optimistic to a fault. Key word is "try". Also, revenue shortfall means maybe they miss the delivery by a few thousand cars, not all of them. For two consecutive quarters no less. Tesla is a publicly traded company and is not going to destroy its stock just so a few extra people can get the tax credit. That is idiotic.

you're assuming this means they're missing delivery numbers, which isn't necessarily the case. all they have to do is shift deliveries outside the US for a quarter or two, not stop them completely. nobody is thinking they're just going to stop all deliveries, THAT would be idiotic...but there's no reason they can't push nearly all deliveries for a quarter or two outside the US.
 
Lastly, the irony is if you are not an owner and not in CA and did not sign up on day 1, then about your only shot at the full tax credit is to order a fully-loaded M3.

i'd change 'and not in CA' to 'OR not in CA.' i would imagine CA (entire west coast really) non-owners will still probably get the credit, even not fully loaded. maybe not base model, but if you are in CA i'd think you will be reasonably safe if you ordered on day 1 or 2, even if you're a non-owner...as long as you're not going strictly base model.
 
I placed a reservation about 30 minutes after the live stream ended and I'm predicting about $10k in options, targeting about $45k before destination, tax, incentives, etc. Hopefully that'll cover a dual motor/larger battery/autopilot/supercharging enabled configuration.
 
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you're assuming this means they're missing delivery numbers, which isn't necessarily the case. all they have to do is shift deliveries outside the US for a quarter or two, not stop them completely. nobody is thinking they're just going to stop all deliveries, THAT would be idiotic...but there's no reason they can't push nearly all deliveries for a quarter or two outside the US.
Topher is saying this:

Put out some high margin cars until they reach 199,999 cars. Then build 6 months or more of production, and release them on the first day of a quarter. So 1 year's worth (6 months pre-built, 6 months regular production) of cars (after 199,999) at full tax credit. Call it 100,000 cars. That should take care of everyone who ordered on release day (who lives in the US, sorry).
I completely agree that it's likely Tesla will do whatever it takes to deliver the 200000th US car on the first day of a quarter so the tax credit lasts as long as possible.

But there is no way they will build up a stock of cars as Topher is speculating, even if they had the room to store 100k+ cars.
 
Heh. It occurred to me during the two-week window one has after configuring one's car that I hadn't test driven one. So after my sales guy made an appt for me at the closest showroom, off I went. The showroom is a useful place in which to see all paint colors, wood options, leather colors and so forth. The demo vehicle you are assigned may or may not have the options in which you are interested (although you can always ask in advance to improve your odds).

So back to your situation. Most of the M3 options will be similar to what's available now in an MS. You could call a showroom sometime in the next year or so, explain that you're an M3 reservation holder, and off you go.

The most costly options (P, assuming there's going to be a P), a larger battery pack, and AWD are all fairly self explanatory. Trim you can see in a showroom or online.

The audio packages, well... this depends upon you. I went middle of the road with the base package with the intention of Reusifying it. If you don't know a FLAC file from a turnip, just go with the base package and call it a day. If you've got $20K or more into your home entertainment, get the upgraded audio and then call Cliff at Reus for an appointment or to schedule an install at the next TMC Connect soirée.

Lastly, the irony is if you are not an owner and not in CA and did not sign up on day 1, then about your only shot at the full tax credit is to order a fully-loaded M3. Which somewhat obviates the point. Or not, depending upon how you look at it. Some look at the tax credit as free money and others need it to make the car attainable in the first place. Both cases are valid as, contrary to the belief of some, the point of this tax credit is not to help the less economically endowed. The point in this case is to accelerate EV adoption. Doesn't mean people making, for example, $40K/year can't benefit from the tax credit in order to get an EV. It means people making $40K/year will drive Fiat 500es. Nothing wrong with that. Tons of people in the San Joaquin Valley do just that. Why? Because they get $13K back to do so instead of $10K or less. In time, when used Model S and used Model 3s are $20K, they'll make great first cars for everybody - safe and no gas costs.

Meanwhile, don't worry about the options. But do get the black headliner. The light-colored textile one (no longer offered) was horrible. This and thousands of opinions just like it are all right here and at TM for the reading. And you've got a whole year and a half yet :).

Thanks for that great response! I am in CA and I did sign up on the day it was unveiled, but I have no idea where that places me in line, since many placed their orders before the unveiling. I think a base model with upgraded seats (fiance has a bad back) would satisfy me, but if getting dual motors or a bigger battery would put me into range to get the full tax credit, then I'd do that, since the tax credit would basically pay for those options and more. I'm not loaded, but a 30k car is within my range (which would be a 40k car minus 7.5k fed and 2.5k state tax credits). I've also been wondering about air suspension since the roads in LA are TERRIBLE, but I've also heard they are unreliable and not worth the cost.

Hadn't heard about the headliner colors. I do hope we can go sit in the various seat options somehow before we place our order. I wonder how swamped the tesla dealers are going to be when people start doing that....
 
i'd change 'and not in CA' to 'OR not in CA.' i would imagine CA (entire west coast really) non-owners will still probably get the credit, even not fully loaded. maybe not base model, but if you are in CA i'd think you will be reasonably safe if you ordered on day 1 or 2, even if you're a non-owner...as long as you're not going strictly base model.

Would you settle for and/or? :). I do hope that reasonably-optioned cars reserved within the first 2 days qualify for the full credit; at the same time, I recognize that the ramp *rate* will be as important as starting production on time or *gasp* early. Then there's attrition with which to deal. Attrition aside, if 200,000 reservations in the first 48 hours, of which say 70% came from the US, and of that say 70% are moderately to fully optioned, and of that 50% are from California delivery addresses... Well, first of all I'm running out of cavity space from which to pull these numbers, and second, that's still 49,000 cars and those are after employee cars. I can envision 49,000+ cars produced the second half of 2018, but would be truly impressed if it happened during the first half of 2018. Just my $0.02, and barely worth that.

Thanks for that great response! I am in CA and I did sign up on the day it was unveiled, but I have no idea where that places me in line, since many placed their orders before the unveiling. I think a base model with upgraded seats (fiance has a bad back) would satisfy me, but if getting dual motors or a bigger battery would put me into range to get the full tax credit, then I'd do that, since the tax credit would basically pay for those options and more. I'm not loaded, but a 30k car is within my range (which would be a 40k car minus 7.5k fed and 2.5k state tax credits). I've also been wondering about air suspension since the roads in LA are TERRIBLE, but I've also heard they are unreliable and not worth the cost.

Hadn't heard about the headliner colors. I do hope we can go sit in the various seat options somehow before we place our order. I wonder how swamped the tesla dealers are going to be when people start doing that....

Yer welcome. I forgot about the upgraded seats as a possible option. Having just schlepped inland (San Gabriel for dim sum) and then back to the coast, I am newly reminded of the state of Los Angeles County roads. What is up with that 45mph limit along the upper end of the 710? That's abysmal. And largely ignored, but still abysmal. Well, almost as abysmal as the almost total lack of painted surface markings, which probably has something to do with it.

If anyone is on the fence about the AP "convenience features", note that in that kind of traffic (which was almost as red at 10am as it was at 3pm), TACC stops being a convenience feature and becomes a Sanity Assist feature and well worth the money. Autosteer is still too dicey yet, unfortunately, but it is trying to get better, and will, either once it has the seasoning that TACC has had, or when AP 2.0 hardware comes out in a year and a half or so or whenever that will be. Yes, that will probably require a new(er) car (or waiting for the Model 3). Nobody said this was going to be easy :).

The seats should be the same as in the Model S, so any showroom will do. I suspect there will be a lot of reservation holders requesting test drives in about a year and a half.