In my opinion, this vision should be funded by the BILLIONAIRE CEO.
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Is it worth $3k for FSD for EAP owners
- Thread starter Dariushd
- Start date
In my opinion, this vision should be funded by the BILLIONAIRE CEO.
You do realize he invested all his money in Tesla and SpaceX to the point he had to borrow from friends to pay rent, right?
No. I didn’t. Do you have his account number so that I can donate to his personal finances? I didn’t know that I’m wealthier than he is.
You are making a lot of assumptions. Right now FSD is a pig in a poke. You're assuming there's a pig in there, and I'm not seeing how a pig could fit in that little poke. You are assuming that $3,000 will get me $3,000 (or more) worth of features. You are assuming those features will cost $8,000 if I wait (a number you pulled out of your... hat, because there's nothing from Tesla to justify it). And finally, you suggest that I'm betting against Tesla. Quite the opposite. I own about $69K of Tesla stock, I own $50 in Solar Bonds, and my Model 3, whose usefulness depends in part on Tesla's continued existence to service it. And if Tesla offers a bond issue I'd probably buy another $25K. I am very definitely betting on Tesla. But I want something for my money: Stock in the company, or interest-paying bonds, or a car with features I like. I'm not paying them for vaporware. Your entire thesis is based on three assumptions: That the promised "FSD" features will materialize; that they will actually be useful; and that once they become available the price will jump from $3K to $8K.
Note also, that if I am wrong, I lose nothing because my car still does what it does now, and still has the same value to me. I don't know how long you've been following Tesla. I've been following them since before the Roadster went on sale. They make fabulous cars, but their record on promises, especially time-related promises, is abysmal. I think they'll have a self-driving car in a decade, and it will be time to trade in my Model 3 for that. Assuming I'm still above ground.
diplomat33
Average guy who loves autonomous vehicles
No, FSD is a not a pig in a poke. Watch the Autonomy Investor Day again. FSD is currently in development. I am not making any claims about when FSD will become available just that Tesla is indeed working on FSD. And we know the FSD computer is real.
My "assumptions" are well founded. Yes, $3000 will get you $3000 worth of new AP features. How do I know? Because A) Tesla has told us what new FSD features are planned (traffic light and automatic city driving). B)Tesla regularly sends out OTA software updates. So regardless of whether Tesla achieves robotaxis next year, the odds are still very high that you will get $3000 worth of new AP features in the life of your car.
And yes, I pulled $8000 out of my hat but FSD will cost more as Tesla adds value. That is basic economics. When Tesla adds the traffic light feature, and automatic city driving, AP will be more capable, hence the value will necessarily increase. There is no way that Tesla will add these features and more and still sell FSD for $3000.
Watch the Autonomy Investor Day again. FSD is currently in development. I am not making any claims about when FSD will become available just that Tesla is indeed working on FSD. And we know the FSD computer is real.---------Presented in an attempt to raise funding? To raise the price of stock? To calm current and older owners who paid for FSD but never (have not) received it from moving into the legal system? Because they are working on it does not mean it will be brought to the market anytime in the near future.
how I see it is that Tesla isn't the only company working on some form of fully autonomous vehicle. By the time we see FSD capability from Tesla, the standards for semi-autonomous cars will be similar in other car manufacturers. Similar to what Tesla did for including AP to the cost of the car to become "standard", more FSD features like stop sign/red light detection will become standard to stay competitive with the market. As the market is being saturated with autonomous driving, the cost of the features will eventually come down to continually stay competitive.
Thunder7ga
Member
diplomat33
Average guy who loves autonomous vehicles
Musk is saying that the price of FSD will actually increase every 2-4 months depending on the rate of progress.
It's vaporware until it's in a car I can buy. It's a pig in a poke because we don't know how it will actually work: We don't know whether it will be Level 2 and you have to intervene on every third light for the next three years and then every 5th light for another five years. We don't know whether NoA/city will actually function in 99% of city neighborhoods or 37% of them. We know nothing about what it will really be or how it will really work. We only know that NoA/highway worked one time on a pre-planned route, but we don't know if it worked first time or if they had to do 17 takes before they got a video without driver interventions.
Your assignment if a $3K value to the features Tesla has promised is your opinion. Not everyone will value those features the same. And Tesla has never brought anything to market on time. I absolutely do believe Tesla will bring these features to market. The question is "when?" Stoplight recognition in five years is not worth $3K to me today.
Your argument is: We know because Tesla said so. Sorry. That's a weak argument. I do believe these things will come. Nobody knows or can know when that will happen, least of all Elon, who thinks everything will happen much sooner than it actually does.
You are assuming that Tesla is the only company to develop such features and therefore will be able to charge whatever it likes. In the real world competition is a factor in pricing. What really happens with technology pricing is that the first one to come out with something can charge a high price, and a year later the price drops way down and a couple years after that it's standard equipment in all models.
Let me pull some numbers out of my own ... hat: If Tesla is the first to market with a working Level 3 stoplight recognition (I value Level 2 stoplight recognition at zero, as noted elsewhere) they will charge $5K for it and a year later will charge $2K and a year after that will make it standard on all cars. If Waymo is the first to develop it and licenses the technology to Honda, Tesla (when it catches up) will charge $1K for it, and a year later will make it a standard feature. If Waymo cracks the nut of true FSD, they will license the technology to any car company willing to pay for it, and Tesla will have to join in or be left behind, and will not be able to charge more for it than other companies do, which will basically be a few hundred dollars per car more than the license fee they pay Waymo.
We cannot know any of this. It's all vaporware until it's in cars sold to the public, and it's a pig in a poke until it's in those cars and the reviews come out telling us what it actually does and how well it does it. Tesla has had people's FSD money for a couple of years now and those people so far have nothing to show for it.
diplomat33
Average guy who loves autonomous vehicles
Only if the features always remain L2 which is an assumption we can't make. The features will start as L2 but certainly, as Tesla develops better and better software, Tesla fully intends for AP to eventually evolve from L2 to L3+ self driving.
I see your point but if it takes longer than the ownership of your car to upgrade to L3...
Exactly! They promised that if you pay for FSD your car will do these things. That implies it will do these things while you own the car. It's been a year and a half since the first people paid for FSD. Those people don't even have the HW3 computer yet (Tesla promised the car as sold had all the needed hardware!) and the "features" of the vastly-downgraded definition of "FSD" are still "in development" and at this point it looks as though people who waited a year or two to buy the car will get the features before the people who bought the car first and paid for it, due to the probable delays in retro-fitting the computer because Tesla realized they couldn't fulfill their promises with the original hardware.
Personally, I think true FSD will run on HW5, or maybe HW7, not HW3. And will require more sensors. Tesla will probably have to refund money to people who paid for FSD in cars that cannot be easily retro-fitted with the needed hardware.
Actually, L3 does not fulfill the promise. L3 would get me to pay for the upgrade, but the promise was a robotaxi-capable car. And the definition of FSD is a car that does not require a driver at all. Calling some driver-assist features "FSD" is dishonest.
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