Is now the worst time to accept delivery of a Model Y?

[Jman841]

Just to put everything in perspective, My Model Y AWD (Long story, but it's the 4680 structural pack build) is scheduled to be delivered in November. Looking at everything going on at the moment, it seems like this could be the worst time to accept delivery of a Model Y for the following reasons:

1. Prices are at all time high and both new and used car demand is weakening very quickly. The idea that Tesla prices only go up is false and most likely will be coming down soon. Used Tesla prices are trending down quickly as we speak.
2. Removal of ultrasonic sensors with a yet to be proven alternative.
3. HW3 is over 3 years old with HW4 likely coming soon. Given that Tesla is betting everything on Camera + AI, HW4 will most likely be a significantly improvement over HW3 over the next 5-10 years if holding the car for a while.
4. Customer Service nightmares seem to become commonplace.
5. Quality control on the Model Y is still hit or miss, I was hopeful that Austin produced model Y's would be much better, but there seems to be a ton of reports of Quality issues out of Austin as well.

For an over $60k car, this seems like it's going to be a major regret at the moment. We do need a second car, but I'm considering something else for now and see what the EV Market is like in a year or so. Just would love other peoples thoughts who own the car and I realize this is going to be a biased audience towards Tesla.

 

[Nubo]

3. HW3 is over 3 years old with HW4 likely coming soon. Given that Tesla is betting everything on Camera + AI, HW4 will most likely be a significantly improvement over HW3 over the next 5-10 years if holding the car for a while

I honestly have no idea what HW3 and HW4 are, but if it's something to do with the opium dream of "full self driving" my take would be it probably won't matter for the life of the vehicle.

 

[ucmndd]

Trying to time the market in regards to price and “imminent” upgrades is a fool’s errand. That said, I think it’s goofy to speculate that prices are going to drop any time soon, particularly for the Model Y. Tesla can leave prices exactly where they’re at and let the government lower their prices by $7500 after the first of the year, which IMO is exactly what they’ll do.

There is always something new coming. The future is unpredictable.

If the price/feature/value ratio available today isn’t to your liking, don’t buy. If it is, go for it. If you’re the type to be massively disappointed because a new shiny was released after you bought, I’d consider a different make.

 

[Unclepaul]

So just to clarify, I can afford it and I won't qualify for the tax rebate. So that specifically isn't a deciding factor. As for the USS Sensors, from my understanding this change has already happened. If you get your car today, it won't have the sensors.

Even if yours comes with sensors, believe it is the plan of Tesla to turn them off and just rely on Vision. Similar to why they stopped using Radar data. It takes a ton of processing to coordinate input from cameras, ultrasonics and Radar to make instantenous decisions on navigation. Reducing all these to just Vision should make for a more robust system to develop.

 

[Kano-riha]

Tesla build quality is worse. I’m glad that some of them received cars that have good quality or, even better, are ok with the quality.
Price-to-Build Quality is bad.
Price-to-EPA is bad (the vehicle seems never to be able to hit the advertised EPA range with normal driving)

Customer service is getting to a state where it’s getting bad.

Lot of unknowns:
- Vision worthiness, reliability (it’s not going to be).
- Bad build quality
- design (UI) is ok, not good. No changes here.
- there’s going to be some updates in 2023

I’d recommend either wait until 2023 or explore other vehicle manufacturers.

 

[JamesMaxwell]

1. everything is high, name one EV that is equal and cheaper.... If you are able to get a tax credit next year I would wait but again lots of variables.
2. no options with tesla going forward unless you purchase used, so your call
3. always something new so wait or buy - tech always gets better.
4. customer service is fine. 1 issue on delivery and they happily fixed. do not believe the hype. 17k miles and zero issues
5. quality is fine. new toyota van had more issues with "panel gaps" and "rattles" than my new tesla

if you can afford it great, if not do not buy but stuff you cannot afford.

Number 3 is called the Osborne Effect...

 

[Chomlee]

Just to put everything in perspective, My Model Y AWD (Long story, but it's the 4680 structural pack build) is scheduled to be delivered in November. Looking at everything going on at the moment, it seems like this could be the worst time to accept delivery of a Model Y for the following reasons:

1. Prices are at all time high and both new and used car demand is weakening very quickly. The idea that Tesla prices only go up is false and most likely will be coming down soon. Used Tesla prices are trending down quickly as we speak.
2. Removal of ultrasonic sensors with a yet to be proven alternative.
3. HW3 is over 3 years old with HW4 likely coming soon. Given that Tesla is betting everything on Camera + AI, HW4 will most likely be a significantly improvement over HW3 over the next 5-10 years if holding the car for a while.
4. Customer Service nightmares seem to become commonplace.
5. Quality control on the Model Y is still hit or miss, I was hopeful that Austin produced model Y's would be much better, but there seems to be a ton of reports of Quality issues out of Austin as well.

For an over $60k car, this seems like it's going to be a major regret at the moment. We do need a second car, but I'm considering something else for now and see what the EV Market is like in a year or so. Just would love other peoples thoughts who own the car and I realize this is going to be a biased audience towards Tesla.

Is used Tesla demand weakening? Wait till gas goes back up to $5/gallon. Also, if this is a MYLR, there is a huge wait time, seems like your almost there. Worst case scenario would be to take delivery and if you aren’t happy, sell it and make some money.

 

[ElectricIAC]

Is used Tesla demand weakening? Wait till gas goes back up to $5/gallon. Also, if this is a MYLR, there is a huge wait time, seems like your almost there. Worst case scenario would be to take delivery and if you aren’t happy, sell it and make some money.

At the end of the day, $60K buys a whole hell of a lot of gas (perhaps not for long) but anyone switching to electric over gas that doesn’t have home charging at low rates is going to be sorely disappointed as the price of supercharging continues its stampede upward.

 

[Peteski]

For an over $60k car, this seems like it's going to be a major regret at the moment.

You don't sound like someone in the right frame of mind for this purchase!

We have 2 MYs in the family and couldn't be happier with them. Just remember that internet forums amplify all the negatives. I keep looking at alternative EVs but Tesla is still my overall benchmark. I took a punt with my first Tesla in 2018 and no regrets since.

 

[NoLtrBeater]

Wait. I wouldn’t recommend anyone buy a Tesla right now. Overpriced junk, albeit quick off the line. I’d say this forum is biased towards fanboys although there seems to be a nonzero number of realists.

 

[nate704]

There always will be better something after you buy anything.

 

[voxel]

In the end it’s a quality of life decision. All EVs except the Bolt are vastly overpriced for what they are. Most EVs are extremely budgety on the inside and worth $15K to $20K less as gas cars.

Non EVs burn gas and with gas prices about to shoot up again so you are looking at an expensive/devaluing new ICE car.

This is probably the worst time to buy any car. Period.

 

[BitJam]

Teslas get better every year. IMO the worst time to buy is when production is just starting. That's when you get the most quality control issues. If you need a car now and you have a Tesla on order then IMO it would be better to take the Tesla now rather than get another car and consider selling it to get a Tesla next year.

At some point EVs will be much better and much cheaper than they are now. OTOH, none of us will live forever. For me, the Tesla experience is so much better that I wouldn't want to wait an additional year. Recently, autopilot saved the life of a young deer that had run in front of my car. And I was treated like a king at the El Paso, Texas Service Center. The car reported a problem. I got an appointment that same week. They replaced the bum controller board (which hadn't caused any issues yet) and they did a handful of other things all for free. I could not ask for better service.

Where you live may affect the decision. In many places Teslas are already commonplace. In my little town I've seen only three Teslas other than my own and two of those were from out of state. Soon Teslas and EVs will become ubiquitous as sales grow exponentially. They are cooler now than they will be next year. When the Model Y outsells the Toyota Corolla (next year?) then the significance of Tesla ownership will change as it moves from fringe to mainstream.

Another factor is what you plan on doing with the car. If I had big road trips coming up then I'd want to do them in a Tesla. Likewise, camp mode in the Model Y is great. If I had car camping on the agenda then I'd want to do that in a Tesla.

Finally, there is your relationship with new technology. If you like gadgets or like to tinker then get the Tesla now. If you're neutral or negative about new tech then it might be better to wait.

 

[Peteski]

For me, the Tesla experience is so much better that I wouldn't want to wait an additional year.

+1
I waited until 2018 to buy my first Tesla/EV and in hindsight wished I'd done it sooner. There is no way I would ever go back to a gas car at this point. I would however consider alternative EVs as they come on the market. Tesla is the benchmark to beat.

 

[Joe-FV]

+1
I waited until 2018 to buy my first Tesla/EV and in hindsight wished I'd done it sooner. There is no way I would ever go back to a gas car at this point. I would however consider alternative EVs as they come on the market. Tesla is the benchmark to beat.

Agree. The average new car price is 50k and you do not get half of what a Tesla offers its owners. But with those cars you do get to buy gas and pay costly ICE maintenance. I have spent tens of thousands over the years (everyone has) just to keep my cars on the road, until now. EVs, even Tesla, shouldn’t be compared to the perfect situation, they should be compared to the current situation. And when you do that the MY is hands down the one of the best ownership experiences out there. Just consider your other options—you could pay fifty thousand for an ICE car and then spend thousands maintaining and fueling it, have half the tech and capability, and go slow.
My one draw back for other EVs is the network. Access to the Tesla supercharger network when traveling is a huge benefit. I sold another EV for this very reason.

 

[Chomlee]

At the end of the day, $60K buys a whole hell of a lot of gas (perhaps not for long) but anyone switching to electric over gas that doesn’t have home charging at low rates is going to be sorely disappointed as the price of supercharging continues its stampede upward.

My point wasn’t the savings in gas personally. My point was that as gas prices go up, demand for EVs increases and therefore, the price at which you could sell the car also stays high. i haven’t really looked the going prices in my area up lately but with MYLR having such a long wait time, the worst case scenario is to keep the reservation and sell the car when you take delivery.

i recently got the MYP and love it! Sure, there are some minor cosmetic things I might change, but it’s a great car. I was a little disappointed on the removal of radar (which apparently has resulted in the phantom braking and I’ve experienced it myself), but it seems to be part of Elons vision toward autonomous driving and hopefully will be improved greatly with updates.

as far as those purchasing who don’t have access to inexpensive electricity at home, well sorry but that’s a dumb move ordering a 60k car if that’s your situation.

 

[ElectricIAC]

My point wasn’t the savings in gas personally. My point was that as gas prices go up, demand for EVs increases and therefore, the price at which you could sell the car also stays high. i haven’t really looked the going prices in my area up lately but with MYLR having such a long wait time, the worst case scenario is to keep the reservation and sell the car when you take delivery.

i recently got the MYP and love it! Sure, there are some minor cosmetic things I might change, but it’s a great car. I was a little disappointed on the removal of radar (which apparently has resulted in the phantom braking and I’ve experienced it myself), but it seems to be part of Elons vision toward autonomous driving and hopefully will be improved greatly with updates.

as far as those purchasing who don’t have access to inexpensive electricity at home, well sorry but that’s a dumb move ordering a 60k car if that’s your situation.

Fair point. High (and rising) gas prices will likely keep values elevated over the traditional curve of devaluation: The wildcard here will be what EV manufacturers do with pricing as chip and material shortages scale back toward normal or even over abundance. (hopeful)

As for us, we picked up an X5 45e to replace our P3D to gain some flexibility on travel. It complements well with our MX and has a very useful range in city environs. Perhaps next year we will replace this with an iX 50 as they have a very useful range. (300+ RW miles)

 

[Jman841]

Thanks for all the insights everyone. We need a 2nd car and are not planning to trade in our current car at the moment. Our options are either the Model Y or the Toyota Sienna (Low maintenance, incredibly practical, great on gas, the wife loves it, no EV Minivans available at the moment.) We will most likely end up with both, the decision is which to purchase now.

My Model Y AWD (This is NOT the long range or performance, it's the 4680 AWD model with 279 miles of range) order just got updated to OCT 29-NOV26 this morning, so it's coming sooner than expected. I suspect these will be available for sale on the website before the end of the month.

Still have about a month to decide, but I'm leaning towards just going with the Tesla now and trade our current car in for the Sienna next year for the wife.

 

[ucmndd]

Toyota Sienna (Low maintenance, incredibly practical, great on gas, the wife loves it, no EV Minivans available at the moment.)

FWIW, we are a one Tesla one Chrysler Pacifica PHEV family and IMO this is probably the best compromise available for a 2-car family these days.

The Pacifica is fantastic, and the ~30 miles of all-electric range means we can do the vast majority of our driving on electricity, but still have an ICE car available for practicality and convenience.

Statistically you’ll of course lose a bit of that Toyota reliability, but ours hasn’t had a single issue in 30k miles. Plop the wife down in one and see what she thinks.

 

[EVNEXT]

I’ve had my MYP since June and it’s been great. Very minor build quality issues and the usability is the best. Yes, it’s ride is a bit stiff but it handles extremely well. The car is worth it’s price tag based on it’s charging network alone. Having had three EV’s previously, I can attest that non-Tesla vehicles are challenged in that department. If you’re looking for bang for the buck, Hyundai is a great choice, but good luck coping with the dealers.

 

[ElectricIAC]

I don't think it's that bad. It's pretty efficient. Most cars that can go over 300mi have a battery pack that's larger than 78kWh

Rated or RW?