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Tam

Well-Known Member
Nov 25, 2012
9,208
7,882
Visalia, CA
Looks like FSD Beta won't get a public wide release until V10 or V11...
Some people have hoped that the FSD progress is just so exponentially fast due to vast data collection, AI, NN, modern technology of radarless, Dojo, TeslaVision... and they thought that when they saw FSD beta 8 on video in October 2020, they'd better buy FSD for fear of missing out.

It's been V8 for the past 9 months for a few and now it's V9 still for only a selected few.

I guess the conclusion is don't expect to get for what you paid for since October 2006 (almost 5 years) any time soon despite Tesla's progress by leaps and bounds.
 
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DaveG_NJ

Member
Oct 7, 2020
300
833
NJ
I've seen some of the v9 Beta videos. It's not ready for a wider release. It's incrementally better than the last build, but I'd rather have a 17 year-old fresh out of Driver's Ed drive my car. Highways are fairly well executed, but city streets have way too many variables and random events. I was a believer when I fell for the rush to buy last October ("It's almost ready, the price is going up!"), but seeing the slow progress, I'm more skeptical than ever. Valiant try, but I think Elon should be honest and say, "this is the best we can do for now, here's a refund." No harm, no foul.
 

drtimhill

Active Member
Apr 25, 2019
1,951
2,448
Seattle
I've seen some of the v9 Beta videos. It's not ready for a wider release. It's incrementally better than the last build, but I'd rather have a 17 year-old fresh out of Driver's Ed drive my car. Highways are fairly well executed, but city streets have way too many variables and random events. I was a believer when I fell for the rush to buy last October ("It's almost ready, the price is going up!"), but seeing the slow progress, I'm more skeptical than ever. Valiant try, but I think Elon should be honest and say, "this is the best we can do for now, here's a refund." No harm, no foul.
I’m not sure where I sit on this atm .. first I always felt the big problem was the basic computer vision .. finding roads and cars etc. This seems to be close, as the car recognition is damn good so far as I can see from the videos. However there is still a lot of work on the car understanding what it sees in terms of expected behavior, and all the myriad variations on signage and lane markings. Unlike the vision problem, this seems to me to be a linear problem (expert system) which means we are likely to see slow and steady progress as the rule set grows, rather than any big breakthrough. What this implies for the release schedule I do not know. Possibly it means that FSD is less of an “if’ and more of a “when” than before, but it’s probably some time away still.
 
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Etalik

Member
Mar 19, 2021
10
13
San Pedro, CA
Beta testers in the general public owner population. I think most of the 2000 number are Tesla employees.

I get that we're all standing at their shoulders screaming at them for release. But it might be healthier and smarter to let them cook and cure the meat before they stuff it into the sausage and serve it to us.
Then they shouldn’t be selling something that has no possibility of delivery before we sell our car. It feels more and more like those of us who purchased FSD got hoodwinked. I am truly disappointed I spent the extra money for something I will obviously never receive.
 

rxlawdude

Active Member
Jul 10, 2015
2,952
2,064
Orange County, CA
Then they shouldn’t be selling something that has no possibility of delivery before we sell our car. It feels more and more like those of us who purchased FSD got hoodwinked. I am truly disappointed I spent the extra money for something I will obviously never receive.
And here, I agree that there should be some proration for FSD purchasers who dispose of their vehicles through sale, lease expiration or collision damage. Perhaps 50% of what was paid, since current FSD does (arguably) about half of what was advertised*, or full credit on a new Tesla vehicle subsequently purchased.

Would you be satisfied with something like this?

*e.g., autosteer on city streets. Anyone expecting L4 or L5 robotaxi functionality is expecting too much, IMO. At least with 2021 FSD hardware.
 

gearchruncher

Active Member
Sep 20, 2016
2,214
2,732
Seattle, WA
since current FSD does (arguably) about half of what was advertised
LOL. FSD description 2016-2019:

Build upon Enhanced Autopilot and order Full Self-Driving Capability on your Tesla. This doubles the number of active cameras from four to eight, enabling full self-driving in almost all circumstances, at what we believe will be a probability of safety at least twice as good as the average human driver. The system is designed to be able to conduct short and long distance trips with no action required by the person in the driver’s seat. For Superchargers that have automatic charge connection enabled, you will not even need to plug in your vehicle.

All you will need to do is get in and tell your car where to go. If you don’t say anything, the car will look at your calendar and take you there as the assumed destination or just home if nothing is on the calendar. Your Tesla will figure out the optimal route, navigate urban streets (even without lane markings), manage complex intersections with traffic lights, stop signs and roundabouts, and handle densely packed freeways with cars moving at high speed. When you arrive at your destination, simply step out at the entrance and your car will enter park seek mode, automatically search for a spot and park itself. A tap on your phone summons it back to you.

Reality Today:
  • Traffic and Stop Sign Control (Beta): Identifies stop signs and traffic lights and automatically slows your car to a stop on approach, with your active supervision

FSD is nowhere near half of what was advertised. The only way you can even come close to that is to re-baseline "FSD" to what was described in 2019. The constant willingness for Tesla apologists to completely ignore the first 55% of Tesla AP2 sales tells you everything you need to know about their ability to re-form anything into what they need to for Tesla to look good.
 

rxlawdude

Active Member
Jul 10, 2015
2,952
2,064
Orange County, CA
LOL. FSD description 2016-2019:



Reality Today:


FSD is nowhere near half of what was advertised. The only way you can even come close to that is to re-baseline "FSD" to what was described in 2019. The constant willingness for Tesla apologists to completely ignore the first 55% of Tesla AP2 sales tells you everything you need to know about their ability to re-form anything into what they need to for Tesla to look good.
Well, well, it's my favorite nabob. I guess when an ignored member responds, one is forced to see it. And life had been so serene of late.

Tesla is under no legal obligation, dude. Myself and others have given you the green light to sue the hell out of Tesla. I assume you'll engage an attorney that knows the difference between advertising words of puffery and contractual OBLIGATION. Oh, yeah. And with an iron-clad disclaimer about software validation that you and your other nattering nabobs ignore. Tesla is validating FSD 9, so they are meeting their non-contractual, implied "promise" to you.

That's all I have to say, and please don't bother to respond. So my serene experience here with "ignore gearcruncher" won't be broken again.
 

gearchruncher

Active Member
Sep 20, 2016
2,214
2,732
Seattle, WA
I guess when an ignored member responds, one is forced to see it. And life had been so serene of late.
This is not the way the ignore list works.

Tesla is under no legal obligation, dude. Myself and others have given you the green light to sue the hell out of Tesla. I assume you'll engage an attorney that knows the difference between advertising words of puffery and contractual OBLIGATION. Oh, yeah. And with an iron-clad disclaimer about software validation that you and your other nattering nabobs ignore. Tesla is validating FSD 9, so they are meeting their non-contractual, implied "promise" to you.
I'll take this as agreement that Tesla has come nowhere near to delivering 1/2 of the FSD functionality they delivered like you proffered. I mean, all I did was quote their own web page, and look how you had to work to dismiss it claiming they are under no legal obligation to develop anything, instead of arguing that stop light control is half of what they promised! And then you had to go back and edit your post to be only for 2021 cars, and mention that it's your opinion that anyone expecting L4 is "Expecting too much" despite this being exactly what Tesla promised. Sounds like a solid, iron-clad situation!

I'll ask it again, and you'll never answer it because you don't have a good answer: How is it a valid contract if Tesla charges $10K for something, and then has no legal obligation to deliver anything? Where is the consideration?
 
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AlanSubie4Life

Efficiency Obsessed Member
Oct 22, 2018
10,458
12,702
San Diego
How is it a valid contract if Tesla charges $10K for something, and then has no legal obligation to deliver anything?

To be fair, the EAP feature set is known to be worth $5k, so we're looking at the features beyond EAP (traffic light dinging, etc.), which are worth the difference between the current price (whatever it is) and that $5k.

The haggling over what has been delivered of what was promised and how much it is worth starts from that approximate baseline.

The pre-2019 promises of course go further than the post-2019 ones, so there's that difference too as has been discussed ad nauseam.
 

dramsey

Member
Sep 8, 2013
75
129
Reno, NV
Beta Testing is performed by "real users" of the software application in the "real environment" and it can be considered as a form of external User Acceptance Testing. It is the final test before shipping a product to the customers. Direct feedback from customers is a major advantage of Beta Testing. This testing helps to test products in customer's environment.
I see that my car still considers rain-sensing wiper functionality to be "Beta", several years after this capability was released...

Wonder how long FSD will be "Beta"?
 

emmz0r

Senior Software Engineer
Jul 12, 2018
1,255
1,025
Norway
I don't see anyone discussing forced visualizations for people that haven't even paid for FSD.
They don't do forced FSD visuals today on HW3 (it's an option and a "preview") so it would be super weird for them to start forcing it when city streets autosteer widens the beta beyond 71 people.

the car view was enlarged for all users and the map etc was shrunk as a result. Very annoying
 

dramsey

Member
Sep 8, 2013
75
129
Reno, NV
For as long as it takes Tesla to get to L4/L5 autonomous driving.

Obviously it can't be in beta if its doing unsupervised driving.
The point was that if something as simple as rain-sensing wipers is still in beta after several years, it doesn't bode well for FSD _ever_ being out of beta.

Tesla introduced the first version of autopilot, the one based on the MobileEye hardware, in September 2014, almost 7 years ago. It's been in beta ever since.

And don't think I didn't see your sneaky insertion of "L4"! Musk has always said the goal is Level 5. Many many times. Most recently he promised it by the end of this year, a possibility I rate slightly below the Second Coming of Christ.
 

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